Is the war entering a new phase? Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev says drones have hit two commercial vessels, sinking one ship and wounding several people, in what he denounced as an "absolutely unacceptable" attack. Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Radev said the ships were attacked by sea drones and aerial drones at about 3am (00:00 GMT), about 70 nautical miles (130km) off Bulgaria's coast, amid a rise in attacks on Black Sea shipping due to expanding drone attacks related to the Russia-Ukraine war. It is a blatant violation of international law and maritime law," Radev said. The Togo-flagged Alfa Watan suffered critical structural damage and sank at the scene.

A civilian cargo ship has sunk and its crew is missing after being attacked by drones in the Black Sea, Bulgarian officials say. A second vessel - carrying grain - was also hit within Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone, Prime Minister Rumen Radev said. Its 18 crew were rescued. Radev did not say who was behind the attacks, which come as Russia intensifies strikes in the Black Sea, particularly the eastern side, as part of its war against Ukraine. Moscow has not commented on the latest incident, a day after it was accused by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of striking a civilian vessel carrying corn.

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled approach for assessing the relative merits of competing computational models and propagating uncertainty into model selection decisions. However, BMC is often intractable for the popular class of hierarchical models due to their high-dimensional nested parameter structure. To address this intractability, we propose a deep learning method for performing BMC on any set of hierarchical models which can be instantiated as probabilistic programs. Since our method enables amortized inference, it allows efficient re-estimation of posterior model probabilities and fast performance validation prior to any real-data application. In a series of extensive validation studies, we benchmark the performance of our method against the state-of-the-art bridge sampling method and demonstrate excellent amortized inference across all BMC settings. We then showcase our method by comparing four hierarchical evidence accumulation models that have previously been deemed intractable for BMC due to partly implicit likelihoods. Additionally, we demonstrate how transfer learning can be leveraged to enhance training efficiency. We provide reproducible code for all analyses and an open-source implementation of our method.

Modern Bayesian inference involves a mixture of computational techniques for estimating, validating, and drawing conclusions from probabilistic models as part of principled workflows for data analysis (Bürkner et al., 2022; Gelman et al., 2020; Schad et al., 2021). Typical problems in Bayesian workflows are the approximation of intractable posterior distributions for diverse model types and the comparison of competing models of the same process in terms of their complexity and predictive performance. However, despite their theoretical appeal and utility, the practical execution of Bayesian workflows is often limited by computational bottlenecks: Obtaining even a single posterior may already take a long time, such that repeated estimation for the purpose of model validation or calibration becomes completely infeasible. BayesFlow provides a framework for simulation-based training of established neural network architectures, such as transformers (Vaswani et al., 2017) and normalizing flows (Papamakarios et al., 2021), for amortized data compression and inference. Amortized Bayesian inference (ABI), as implemented in BayesFlow, enables users to train custom neural networks on model simulations and re-use these networks for any subsequent application of the models. Since the trained networks can perform inference almost instantaneously (typically well below one second), the upfront neural network training is quickly amortized. For instance, amortized inference allows us to test a model's ability to recover its parameters (Schad et al., 2021) or assess its simulation-based calibration (Säilynoja et al., 2022; Talts et al., 2018) for different data set sizes in a matter of seconds, even though this may require the estimation of thousands of posterior distributions. BayesFlow offers a user-friendly API, which encapsulates the details of neural network architectures and training procedures that are less relevant for the practitioner and provides robust default implementations that work well across many applications. At the same time, BayesFlow implements a modular software architecture, allowing machine learning scientists to modify every component of the pipeline for custom applications as well as research at the frontier of Bayesian inference.

As models of cognition grow in complexity and number of parameters, Bayesian inference with standard methods can become intractable, especially when the data-generating model is of unknown analytic form. Recent advances in simulation-based inference using specialized neural network architectures circumvent many previous problems of approximate Bayesian computation. Moreover, due to the properties of these special neural network estimators, the effort of training the networks via simulations amortizes over subsequent evaluations which can re-use the same network for multiple datasets and across multiple researchers. However, these methods have been largely underutilized in cognitive science and psychology so far, even though they are well suited for tackling a wide variety of modeling problems. With this work, we provide a general introduction to amortized Bayesian parameter estimation and model comparison and demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methods on a well-known class of intractable response-time models.

A daylong conference will cover a wide-range of topics related to computational data analysis, from how languages spread to ways of improving the value of crowdsourcing. The Data Science Workshop on Computational Social Science takes place Oct. 20. It's the first of what Dragomir Radev, the A. Bartlett Giamatti Professor of Computer Science, expects will be a regular event. "We decided we should try to cover different areas of data science," said Radev, one of the event's organizers. "We're starting with computational social science first and then switch to other areas in which data science and computer science have made an impact, for example, digital humanities, medicine, finance, etc." Radev said the event is something that likely would not have happened 10 or even five years ago.

Researchers and scientists increasingly find themselves in the position of having to quickly understand large amounts of technical material. Our goal is to effectively serve this need by using bibliometric text mining and summarization techniques to generate summaries of scientific literature. We show how we can use citations to produce automatically generated, readily consumable, technical extractive summaries. We first propose C-LexRank, a model for summarizing single scientific articles based on citations, which employs community detection and extracts salient information-rich sentences. Next, we further extend our experiments to summarize a set of papers, which cover the same scientific topic. We generate extractive summaries of a set of Question Answering (QA) and Dependency Parsing (DP) papers, their abstracts, and their citation sentences and show that citations have unique information amenable to creating a summary.

Over the last few years, a number of areas of natural language processing have begun applying graph-based techniques. These include, among others, text summarization, syntactic parsing, word-sense disambiguation, ontology construction, sentiment and subjectivity analysis, and text clustering. In this paper, we present some of the most successful graph-based representations and algorithms used in language processing and try to explain how and why they work.