Several recent works have shown that state-of-the-art classifiers are vulnerable to worst-case (i.e., adversarial) perturbations of the datapoints. On the other hand, it has been empirically observed that these same classifiers are relatively robust to random noise. In this paper, we propose to study a semi-random noise regime that generalizes both the random and worst-case noise regimes. We propose the first quantitative analysis of the robustness of nonlinear classifiers in this general noise regime. We establish precise theoretical bounds on the robustness of classifiers in this general regime, which depend on the curvature of the classifier's decision boundary. Our bounds confirm and quantify the empirical observations that classifiers satisfying curvature constraints are robust to random noise. Moreover, we quantify the robustness of classifiers in terms of the subspace dimension in the semi-random noise regime, and show that our bounds remarkably interpolate between the worst-case and random noise regimes. We perform experiments and show that the derived bounds provide very accurate estimates when applied to various state-of-the-art deep neural networks and datasets. This result suggests bounds on the curvature of the classifiers' decision boundaries that we support experimentally, and more generally offers important insights onto the geometry of high dimensional classification problems.

However, sampling is not the only source of uncertainty. In practice, distributions change between locations and across time.

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In this paper, we try to understand FSL by exploring two key questions: (1) How to quantify the relationship between training and novel tasks?

Estimating causal quantities from observational data is crucial for understanding the safety and effectiveness of medical treatments. However, to make reliable inferences, medical practitioners require not only estimating averaged causal quantities, such as the conditional average treatment effect, but also understanding the randomness of the treatment effect as a random variable. This randomness is referred to as aleatoric uncertainty and is necessary for understanding the probability of benefit from treatment or quantiles of the treatment effect. Yet, the aleatoric uncertainty of the treatment effect has received surprisingly little attention in the causal machine learning community. To fill this gap, we aim to quantify the aleatoric uncertainty of the treatment effect at the covariate-conditional level, namely, the conditional distribution of the treatment effect (CDTE).

Understanding the curvature evolution of the loss landscape is fundamental to analyzing the training dynamics of neural networks. The most commonly studied measure, Hessian sharpness ($λ_{\max}^H$) -- the largest eigenvalue of the loss Hessian -- determines local training stability and interacts with the learning rate throughout training. Despite its significance in analyzing training dynamics, direct measurement of Hessian sharpness remains prohibitive for Large Language Models (LLMs) due to high computational cost. We analyze $\textit{critical sharpness}$ ($λ_c$), a computationally efficient measure requiring fewer than $10$ forward passes given the update direction $Δ\mathbfθ$. Critically, this measure captures well-documented Hessian sharpness phenomena, including progressive sharpening and Edge of Stability. Using this measure, we provide the first demonstration of these sharpness phenomena at scale, up to $7$B parameters, spanning both pre-training and mid-training of OLMo-2 models. We further introduce $\textit{relative critical sharpness}$ ($λ_c^{1\to 2}$), which quantifies the curvature of one loss landscape while optimizing another, to analyze the transition from pre-training to fine-tuning and guide data mixing strategies. Critical sharpness provides practitioners with a practical tool for diagnosing curvature dynamics and informing data composition choices at scale. More broadly, our work shows that scalable curvature measures can provide actionable insights for large-scale training.

Robotic applications often involve working in environments that are uncertain, dynamic, and partially observable. Recently, diffusion models have been proposed for learning trajectory prediction models trained from expert demonstrations, which can be used for planning in robot tasks. Such models have demonstrated a strong ability to overcome challenges such as multi-modal action distributions, high-dimensional output spaces, and training instability. It is crucial to quantify the uncertainty of these dynamics models when using them for planning. In this paper, we quantify the uncertainty of diffusion dynamics models using Conformal Prediction (CP).

Common statistical measures of uncertainty such as $p$-values and confidence intervals quantify the uncertainty due to sampling, that is, the uncertainty due to not observing the full population. However, sampling is not the only source of uncertainty. In practice, distributions change between locations and across time. This makes it difficult to gather knowledge that transfers across data sets. We propose a measure of instability that quantifies the distributional instability of a statistical parameter with respect to Kullback-Leibler divergence, that is, the sensitivity of the parameter under general distributional perturbations within a Kullback-Leibler divergence ball. In addition, we quantify the instability of parameters with respect to directional or variable-specific shifts. Measuring instability with respect to directional shifts can be used to detect under which kind of distribution shifts a statistical conclusion might be reversed. We discuss how such knowledge can inform data collection for transfer learning of statistical parameters under shifted distributions. We evaluate the performance of the proposed measure on real data and show that it can elucidate the distributional instability of a parameter with respect to certain shifts and can be used to improve estimation accuracy under shifted distributions.