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The Meta-Learning Gap: Combining Hydra and Quant for Large-Scale Time Series Classification

Maniar, Urav

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time series classification faces a fundamental trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. While comprehensive ensembles like HIVE-COTE 2.0 achieve state-of-the-art accuracy, their 340-hour training time on the UCR benchmark renders them impractical for large-scale datasets. We investigate whether targeted combinations of two efficient algorithms from complementary paradigms can capture ensemble benefits while maintaining computational feasibility. Combining Hydra (competing convolutional kernels) and Quant (hierarchical interval quantiles) across six ensemble configurations, we evaluate performance on 10 large-scale MONSTER datasets (7,898 to 1,168,774 training instances). Our strongest configuration improves mean accuracy from 0.829 to 0.836, succeeding on 7 of 10 datasets. However, prediction-combination ensembles capture only 11% of theoretical oracle potential, revealing a substantial meta-learning optimization gap. Feature-concatenation approaches exceeded oracle bounds by learning novel decision boundaries, while prediction-level complementarity shows moderate correlation with ensemble gains. The central finding: the challenge has shifted from ensuring algorithms are different to learning how to combine them effectively. Current meta-learning strategies struggle to exploit the complementarity that oracle analysis confirms exists. Improved combination strategies could potentially double or triple ensemble gains across diverse time series classification applications.



Supplementary materials for " Federated Expectation Maximization with heterogeneity mitigation and variance reduction "

Neural Information Processing Systems

This supplementary material is organized as follows. Appendix A extends the results obtained in Theorem 1 to the Partial Participation regime. Appendix B contains additional details on compression mechanisms satisfying A 6, including an example of admissible quantization operator. Appendix C contains the pseudo-code for algorithm FedEM in the full participation regime case, and the proof of Theorem 1 - including necessary technical lemmas. Appendix D contains details concerning the extension to partial participation of the workers and the proof of Theorem 4 .


Federated Expectation Maximization with heterogeneity mitigation and variance reduction

Neural Information Processing Systems

The Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is the default algorithm for inference in latent variable models. As in any other field of machine learning, applications of latent variable models to very large datasets makes the use of advanced parallel and distributed architectures mandatory. This paper introduces FedEM, which is the first extension of the EM algorithm to the federated learning context. FedEM is a new communication efficient method, which handles partial participation of local devices, and is robust to heterogeneous distributions of the datasets. To alleviate the communication bottleneck, FedEM compresses appropriately defined complete data sufficient statistics. We also develop and analyze an extension of FedEM to further incorporate a variance reduction scheme. In all cases, we derive finite-time complexity bounds for smooth non-convex problems. Numerical results are presented to support our theoretical findings, as well as an application to federated missing values imputation for biodiversity monitoring.




QuAnTS: Question Answering on Time Series

Divo, Felix, Kraus, Maurice, Nguyen, Anh Q., Xue, Hao, Razzak, Imran, Salim, Flora D., Kersting, Kristian, Dhami, Devendra Singh

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Text offers intuitive access to information. This can, in particular, complement the density of numerical time series, thereby allowing improved interactions with time series models to enhance accessibility and decision-making. While the creation of question-answering datasets and models has recently seen remarkable growth, most research focuses on question answering (QA) on vision and text, with time series receiving minute attention. To bridge this gap, we propose a challenging novel time series QA (TSQA) dataset, QuAnTS, for Question Answering on Time Series data. Specifically, we pose a wide variety of questions and answers about human motion in the form of tracked skeleton trajectories. We verify that the large-scale QuAnTS dataset is well-formed and comprehensive through extensive experiments. Thoroughly evaluating existing and newly proposed baselines then lays the groundwork for a deeper exploration of TSQA using QuAnTS. Additionally, we provide human performances as a key reference for gauging the practical usability of such models. We hope to encourage future research on interacting with time series models through text, enabling better decision-making and more transparent systems.



Watch Your Step: A Cost-Sensitive Framework for Accelerometer-Based Fall Detection in Real-World Streaming Scenarios

Aderinola, Timilehin B., Palmerini, Luca, D'Ascanio, Ilaria, Chiari, Lorenzo, Klenk, Jochen, Becker, Clemens, Caulfield, Brian, Ifrim, Georgiana

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract-- Real-time fall detection is crucial for enabling timely interventions and mitigating the severe health consequences of falls, particularly in older adults. However, existing methods often rely on simulated data or assumptions such as prior knowledge of fall events, limiting their real-world applicability. Practical deployment also requires efficient computation and robust evaluation metrics tailored to continuous monitoring. This paper presents a real-time fall detection framework for continuous monitoring without prior knowledge of fall events. Using over 60 hours of inertial measurement unit (IMU) data from the FARSEEING real-world falls dataset, we employ recent efficient classifiers to compute fall probabilities in streaming mode. To enhance robustness, we introduce a cost-sensitive learning strategy that tunes the decision threshold using a cost function reflecting the higher risk of missed falls compared to false alarms. Unlike many methods that achieve high recall only at the cost of precision, our framework achieved Recall of 1.00, Precision of 0.84, and an F These results demonstrate that cost-sensitive threshold tuning enhances the robustness of accelerometer-based fall detection. They also highlight the potential of our computationally efficient framework for deployment in real-time wearable sensor systems for continuous monitoring. A fall is an event that results in a person coming to rest unintentionally on the ground, floor, or other lower level [1].


Supplementary materials for " Federated Expectation Maximization with heterogeneity mitigation and variance reduction "

Neural Information Processing Systems

This supplementary material is organized as follows. Appendix A extends the results obtained in Theorem 1 to the Partial Participation regime. Appendix B contains additional details on compression mechanisms satisfying A 6, including an example of admissible quantization operator. Appendix C contains the pseudo-code for algorithm FedEM in the full participation regime case, and the proof of Theorem 1 - including necessary technical lemmas. Appendix D contains details concerning the extension to partial participation of the workers and the proof of Theorem 4 .