Bayesian quadrature is a probabilistic, model-based approach to numerical integration, the estimation of intractable integrals, or expectations. Although Bayesian quadrature was popularised already in the 1980s, no systematic and comprehensive treatment has been published. The purpose of this survey is to fill this gap. We review the mathematical foundations of Bayesian quadrature from different points of view; present a systematic taxonomy for classifying different Bayesian quadrature methods along the three axes of modelling, inference, and sampling; collect general theoretical guarantees; and provide a controlled numerical study that explores and illustrates the effect of different choices along the axes of the taxonomy. We also provide a realistic assessment of practical challenges and limitations to application of Bayesian quadrature methods and include an up-to-date and nearly exhaustive bibliography that covers not only machine learning and statistics literature but all areas of mathematics and engineering in which Bayesian quadrature or equivalent methods have seen use.

This paper presents new quadrature rules for functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space using nodes drawn by a sampling algorithm known as randomly pivoted Cholesky. The resulting computational procedure compares favorably to previous kernel quadrature methods, which either achieve low accuracy or require solving a computationally challenging sampling problem.

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Thislinkbetween the two kernels, along with DPP machinery, leads to relatively tight bounds on the quadrature error,that depends onthespectrum oftheRKHS kernel.

Integrals appear in manyscientific fields as quantities of interest per se.

Consequently, there are no theoretical guarantees so far for this class of methods.

Intheoriginalformulation, observations are assumed to be exact (non-noisy), so the GP likelihood only included a small observation noise σ2obs for numerical stability [32].

We study a quadrature, proposed by Ermakov and Zolotukhin in the sixties, through the lens of kernel methods. The nodes of this quadrature rule follow the distribution of a determinantal point process, while the weights are defined through a linear system, similarly to the optimal kernel quadrature. In this work, we show how these two classes of quadrature are related, and we prove a tractable formula of the expected value of the squared worst-case integration error on the unit ball of an RKHS of the former quadrature. In particular, this formula involves the eigenvalues of the corresponding kernel and leads to improving on the existing theoretical guarantees of the optimal kernel quadrature with determinantal point processes.