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 qmle


Learning in complex action spaces without policy gradients

Tavakoli, Arash, Ghiassian, Sina, Rakićević, Nemanja

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conventional wisdom suggests that policy gradient methods are better suited to complex action spaces than action-value methods. However, foundational studies have shown equivalences between these paradigms in small and finite action spaces (O'Donoghue et al., 2017; Schulman et al., 2017a). This raises the question of why their computational applicability and performance diverge as the complexity of the action space increases. We hypothesize that the apparent superiority of policy gradients in such settings stems not from intrinsic qualities of the paradigm, but from universal principles that can also be applied to action-value methods to serve similar functionality. We identify three such principles and provide a framework for incorporating them into action-value methods. To support our hypothesis, we instantiate this framework in what we term QMLE, for Q-learning with maximum likelihood estimation. Our results show that QMLE can be applied to complex action spaces with a controllable computational cost that is comparable to that of policy gradient methods, all without using policy gradients. Furthermore, QMLE demonstrates strong performance on the DeepMind Control Suite, even when compared to the state-of-the-art methods such as DMPO and D4PG.


Covariance alignment: from maximum likelihood estimation to Gromov-Wasserstein

Han, Yanjun, Rigollet, Philippe, Stepaniants, George

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Feature alignment methods are used in many scientific disciplines for data pooling, annotation, and comparison. As an instance of a permutation learning problem, feature alignment presents significant statistical and computational challenges. In this work, we propose the covariance alignment model to study and compare various alignment methods and establish a minimax lower bound for covariance alignment that has a non-standard dimension scaling because of the presence of a nuisance parameter. This lower bound is in fact minimax optimal and is achieved by a natural quasi MLE. However, this estimator involves a search over all permutations which is computationally infeasible even when the problem has moderate size. To overcome this limitation, we show that the celebrated Gromov-Wasserstein algorithm from optimal transport which is more amenable to fast implementation even on large-scale problems is also minimax optimal. These results give the first statistical justification for the deployment of the Gromov-Wasserstein algorithm in practice.


Goodness-of-Fit Test of Mismatched Models for Self-Exciting Processes

Wei, Song, Zhu, Shixiang, Zhang, Minghe, Xie, Yao

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We develop a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test for generative models of self-exciting processes by making a new connection to this problem with the classical statistical theory of Quasi-maximum-likelihood estimator (QMLE). We present a non-parametric self-normalizing statistic for the GOF test: the Generalized Score (GS) statistics, and explicitly capture the model misspecification when establishing the asymptotic distribution of the GS statistic. Numerical experiments based on simulation and real-data validate our theory and demonstrate the proposed GS test's good performance.


Problems In Estimating GARCH Parameters in R

@machinelearnbot

These days my research focuses on change point detection methods. These are statistical tests and procedures to detect a structural change in a sequence of data. An early example, from quality control, is detecting whether a machine became uncalibrated when producing a widget. There may be some measurement of interest, such as the diameter of a ball bearing, that we observe. The machine produces these widgets in sequence. Under the null hypothesis, the ball bearing's mean diameter does not change, while under the alternative, at some unkown point in the manufacturing process the machine became uncalibrated and the mean diameter of the ball bearings changed.