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 purchase decision


Dynamic Pricing and Learning with Bayesian Persuasion

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider a novel dynamic pricing and learning setting where in addition to setting prices of products in sequential rounds, the seller also ex-ante commits to'advertising schemes'. That is, in the beginning of each round the seller can decide what kind of signal they will provide to the buyer about the product's quality upon realization. Using the popular Bayesian persuasion framework to model the effect of these signals on the buyers' valuation and purchase responses, we formulate the problem of finding an optimal design of the advertising scheme along with a pricing scheme that maximizes the seller's expected revenue. Without any apriori knowledge of the buyers' demand function, our goal is to design an online algorithm that can use past purchase responses to adaptively learn the optimal pricing and advertising strategy. We study the regret of the algorithm when compared to the optimal clairvoyant price and advertising scheme.


Dynamic Pricing and Learning with Bayesian Persuasion

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider a novel dynamic pricing and learning setting where in addition to setting prices of products in sequential rounds, the seller also ex-ante commits to'advertising schemes'. That is, in the beginning of each round the seller can decide what kind of signal they will provide to the buyer about the product's quality upon realization. Using the popular Bayesian persuasion framework to model the effect of these signals on the buyers' valuation and purchase responses, we formulate the problem of finding an optimal design of the advertising scheme along with a pricing scheme that maximizes the seller's expected revenue. Without any apriori knowledge of the buyers' demand function, our goal is to design an online algorithm that can use past purchase responses to adaptively learn the optimal pricing and advertising strategy. We study the regret of the algorithm when compared to the optimal clairvoyant price and advertising scheme.


Persuasion Games using Large Language Models

Ramani, Ganesh Prasath, Karande, Shirish, V, Santhosh, Bhatia, Yash

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as formidable instruments capable of comprehending and producing human-like text. This paper explores the potential of LLMs, to shape user perspectives and subsequently influence their decisions on particular tasks. This capability finds applications in diverse domains such as Investment, Credit cards and Insurance, wherein they assist users in selecting appropriate insurance policies, investment plans, Credit cards, Retail, as well as in Behavioral Change Support Systems (BCSS). We present a sophisticated multi-agent framework wherein a consortium of agents operate in collaborative manner. The primary agent engages directly with user agents through persuasive dialogue, while the auxiliary agents perform tasks such as information retrieval, response analysis, development of persuasion strategies, and validation of facts. Empirical evidence from our experiments demonstrates that this collaborative methodology significantly enhances the persuasive efficacy of the LLM. We continuously analyze the resistance of the user agent to persuasive efforts and counteract it by employing a combination of rule-based and LLM-based resistance-persuasion mapping techniques. We employ simulated personas and generate conversations in insurance, banking, and retail domains to evaluate the proficiency of large language models (LLMs) in recognizing, adjusting to, and influencing various personality types. Concurrently, we examine the resistance mechanisms employed by LLM simulated personas. Persuasion is quantified via measurable surveys before and after interaction, LLM-generated scores on conversation, and user decisions (purchase or non-purchase).


Instant Answering in E-Commerce Buyer-Seller Messaging using Message-to-Question Reformulation

Fetahu, Besnik, Mehta, Tejas, Song, Qun, Vedula, Nikhita, Rokhlenko, Oleg, Malmasi, Shervin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

E-commerce customers frequently seek detailed product information for purchase decisions, commonly contacting sellers directly with extended queries. This manual response requirement imposes additional costs and disrupts buyer's shopping experience with response time fluctuations ranging from hours to days. We seek to automate buyer inquiries to sellers in a leading e-commerce store using a domain-specific federated Question Answering (QA) system. The main challenge is adapting current QA systems, designed for single questions, to address detailed customer queries. We address this with a low-latency, sequence-to-sequence approach, MESSAGE-TO-QUESTION ( M2Q ). It reformulates buyer messages into succinct questions by identifying and extracting the most salient information from a message. Evaluation against baselines shows that M2Q yields relative increases of 757% in question understanding, and 1,746% in answering rate from the federated QA system. Live deployment shows that automatic answering saves sellers from manually responding to millions of messages per year, and also accelerates customer purchase decisions by eliminating the need for buyers to wait for a reply


The Challenge of Using LLMs to Simulate Human Behavior: A Causal Inference Perspective

Gui, George, Toubia, Olivier

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive potential to simulate human behavior. Using a causal inference framework, we empirically and theoretically analyze the challenges of conducting LLM-simulated experiments, and explore potential solutions. In the context of demand estimation, we show that variations in the treatment included in the prompt (e.g., price of focal product) can cause variations in unspecified confounding factors (e.g., price of competitors, historical prices, outside temperature), introducing endogeneity and yielding implausibly flat demand curves. We propose a theoretical framework suggesting this endogeneity issue generalizes to other contexts and won't be fully resolved by merely improving the training data. Unlike real experiments where researchers assign pre-existing units across conditions, LLMs simulate units based on the entire prompt, which includes the description of the treatment. Therefore, due to associations in the training data, the characteristics of individuals and environments simulated by the LLM can be affected by the treatment assignment. We explore two potential solutions. The first specifies all contextual variables that affect both treatment and outcome, which we demonstrate to be challenging for a general-purpose LLM. The second explicitly specifies the source of treatment variation in the prompt given to the LLM (e.g., by informing the LLM that the store is running an experiment). While this approach only allows the estimation of a conditional average treatment effect that depends on the specific experimental design, it provides valuable directional results for exploratory analysis.


Leveraging Reviews: Learning to Price with Buyer and Seller Uncertainty

Guo, Wenshuo, Haghtalab, Nika, Kandasamy, Kirthevasan, Vitercik, Ellen

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In online marketplaces, customers have access to hundreds of reviews for a single product. Buyers often use reviews from other customers that share their type -- such as height for clothing, skin type for skincare products, and location for outdoor furniture -- to estimate their values, which they may not know a priori. Customers with few relevant reviews may hesitate to make a purchase except at a low price, so for the seller, there is a tension between setting high prices and ensuring that there are enough reviews so that buyers can confidently estimate their values. Simultaneously, sellers may use reviews to gauge the demand for items they wish to sell. In this work, we study this pricing problem in an online setting where the seller interacts with a set of buyers of finitely many types, one by one, over a series of $T$ rounds. At each round, the seller first sets a price. Then a buyer arrives and examines the reviews of the previous buyers with the same type, which reveal those buyers' ex-post values. Based on the reviews, the buyer decides to purchase if they have good reason to believe that their ex-ante utility is positive. Crucially, the seller does not know the buyer's type when setting the price, nor even the distribution over types. We provide a no-regret algorithm that the seller can use to obtain high revenue. When there are $d$ types, after $T$ rounds, our algorithm achieves a problem-independent $\tilde O(T^{2/3}d^{1/3})$ regret bound. However, when the smallest probability $q_{\text{min}}$ that any given type appears is large, specifically when $q_{\text{min}} \in \Omega(d^{-2/3}T^{-1/3})$, then the same algorithm achieves a $\tilde O(T^{1/2}q_{\text{min}}^{-1/2})$ regret bound. We complement these upper bounds with matching lower bounds in both regimes, showing that our algorithm is minimax optimal up to lower-order terms.


Buy when? Survival machine learning model comparison for purchase timing

Vallarino, Diego

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Due to advancements in information technology and the rapid rise of the Internet, the data revolution of the past several decades has caused businesses to create more data than they can utilize or understand (see Erevelles, S.; Fukawa, N.; Swayne, L., 2016; Seng, J.L.; Chen, T., 2010). The expansion in the volume of data, the variety of data kinds, and the scope of analysis has necessitated technological advancements beyond storage, transport, and processing (see Seng, J.L.; Chen, T., 2010) The data must be translated into information and knowledge in order to transfer knowledge into decision-making tools for enterprises. This data is used in marketing research to identify intriguing links between market segmentation in industrial, tourist, and other markets, customer lifetime value, loyalty and client segment, direct market, marketing campaign, and other applications (Tkáˇc, M.; Verner, R., 2016). With the application of Machine Learning (ML) methods (see Bahari, T.F.; Elayidom, M.S., 2015; Jessen, H.C.; Paliouras, G., 2001), it is currently anticipated that enormous volumes of stored data may be explored, and usable information extracted. ML are strategies that equip computers with the capacity to comprehend, using data and experiences similar to the human brain (Çelik, Ö., 2018).


Introducing Robotics in Interactive Marketing

#artificialintelligence

As marketing strategies of enterprises evolve to become more data-driven, analytical, and focused on engagement, the worldwide use of robots armed with artificial intelligence seems naturally imminent in the future of interactive marketing. The field of robotics has experienced a rapid progress in recent years, giving emergence to robots that are getting ever-closer to perfectly emulate humans in interactive marketing. Although initially robots were conceptualized and developed almost exclusively for automate industrial operations, the integration of AI, machine learning, and deep learning have opened up a world of possibilities for the application of robotics in different business areas. One of the areas that can benefit from the use of robots is marketing. As traditional, unidirectional marketing is being replaced by interactive marketing, there is an increasing need for systems that collect and analyze massive volumes of customer data.


Predicting Consumer Purchasing Decision in The Online Food Delivery Industry

Madani, Batool, Alshraideh, Hussam

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This transformation of food delivery businesses to online platforms has gained high attention in recent years. This due to the availability of customizing ordering experiences, easy payment methods, fast delivery, and others. The competition between online food delivery providers has intensified to attain a wider range of customers. Hence, they should have a better understanding of their customers' needs and predict their purchasing decisions. Machine learning has a significant impact on companies' bottom line. They are used to construct models and strategies in industries that rely on big data and need a system to evaluate it fast and effectively. Predictive modeling is a type of machine learning that uses various regression algorithms, analytics, and statistics to estimate the probability of an occurrence. The incorporation of predictive models helps online food delivery providers to understand their customers. In this study, a dataset collected from 388 consumers in Bangalore, India was provided to predict their purchasing decisions. Four prediction models are considered: CART and C4.5 decision trees, random forest, and rule-based classifiers, and their accuracies in providing the correct class label are evaluated. The findings show that all models perform similarly, but the C4.5 outperforms them all with an accuracy of 91.67%.


The State of Radiology AI: Considerations for Purchase Decisions and Current Market Offerings

#artificialintelligence

To provide an overview of important factors to consider when purchasing radiology artificial intelligence (AI) software and current software offerings by type, subspecialty, and modality. Important factors for consideration when purchasing AI software, including key decision makers, data ownership and privacy, cost structures, performance indicators, and potential return on investment are described. For the market overview, a list of radiology AI companies was aggregated from the Radiological Society of North America and the Society for Imaging Informatics in Medicine conferences (November 2016–June 2019), then narrowed to companies using deep learning for imaging analysis and diagnosis. Software created for image enhancement, reporting, or workflow management was excluded. Software was categorized by task (repetitive, quantitative, explorative, and diagnostic), modality, and subspecialty.