Predictive process monitoring is a sub-domain of process mining which aims to forecast the future of ongoing process executions. One common prediction target is the remaining time, meaning the time that will elapse until a process execution is completed. In this paper, we compare four different remaining time prediction approaches in a real-life outbound warehouse process of a logistics company in the aviation business. For this process, the company provided us with a novel and original event log with 169,523 traces, which we can make publicly available. Unsurprisingly, we find that deep learning models achieve the highest accuracy, but shallow methods like conventional boosting techniques achieve competitive accuracy and require significantly fewer computational resources.

The rise of process data availability has recently led to the development of data-driven learning approaches. However, most of these approaches restrict the use of the learned model to predict the future of ongoing process executions. The goal of this paper is moving a step forward and leveraging available data to learning to act, by supporting users with recommendations derived from an optimal strategy (measure of performance). We take the optimization perspective of one process actor and we recommend the best activities to execute next, in response to what happens in a complex external environment, where there is no control on exogenous factors. To this aim, we investigate an approach that learns, by means of Reinforcement Learning, the optimal policy from the observation of past executions and recommends the best activities to carry on for optimizing a Key Performance Indicator of interest. The validity of the approach is demonstrated on two scenarios taken from real-life data.

Predictive process monitoring has recently gained traction in academia and is maturing also in companies. However, with the growing body of research, it might be daunting for companies to navigate in this domain in order to find, provided certain data, what can be predicted and what methods to use. The main objective of this paper is developing a value-driven framework for classifying existing work on predictive process monitoring. This objective is achieved by systematically identifying, categorizing, and analyzing existing approaches for predictive process monitoring. The review is then used to develop a value-driven framework that can support organizations to navigate in the predictive process monitoring field and help them to find value and exploit the opportunities enabled by these analysis techniques.

The perceived quality of the explanations accompanying e-government services is key to gaining trust in these institutions, consequently amplifying further usage of these services. Recent advances in generative AI, and concretely in Large Language Models (LLMs) allow the automation of such content articulations, eliciting explanations' interpretability and fidelity, and more generally, adapting content to various audiences. However, selecting the right LLM type for this has become a non-trivial task for e-government service providers. In this work, we adapted a previously developed scale to assist with this selection, providing a systematic approach for the comparative analysis of the perceived quality of explanations generated by various LLMs. We further demonstrated its applicability through the tax-return process, using it as an exemplar use case that could benefit from employing an LLM to generate explanations about tax refund decisions. This was attained through a user study with 128 survey respondents who were asked to rate different versions of LLM-generated explanations about tax refund decisions, providing a methodological basis for selecting the most appropriate LLM. Recognizing the practical challenges of conducting such a survey, we also began exploring the automation of this process by attempting to replicate human feedback using a selection of cutting-edge predictive techniques.

Predictive Process Monitoring focuses on predicting future states of ongoing process executions, such as forecasting the remaining time. Recent developments in Object-Centric Process Mining have enriched event data with objects and their explicit relations between events. To leverage this enriched data, we propose the Heterogeneous Object Event Graph encoding (HOEG), which integrates events and objects into a graph structure with diverse node types. It does so without aggregating object features, thus creating a more nuanced and informative representation. We then adopt a heterogeneous Graph Neural Network architecture, which incorporates these diverse object features in prediction tasks. We evaluate the performance and scalability of HOEG in predicting remaining time, benchmarking it against two established graph-based encodings and two baseline models. Our evaluation uses three Object-Centric Event Logs (OCELs), including one from a real-life process at a major Dutch financial institution. The results indicate that HOEG competes well with existing models and surpasses them when OCELs contain informative object attributes and event-object interactions.

Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) aims at leveraging historic process execution data to predict how ongoing executions will continue up to their completion. In recent years, PPM techniques for the prediction of the next activities have matured significantly, mainly thanks to the use of Neural Networks (NNs) as a predictor. While their performance is difficult to beat in the general case, there are specific situations where background process knowledge can be helpful. Such knowledge can be leveraged for improving the quality of predictions for exceptional process executions or when the process changes due to a concept drift. In this paper, we present a Symbolic[Neuro] system that leverages background knowledge expressed in terms of a procedural process model to offset the under-sampling in the training data. More specifically, we make predictions using NNs with attention mechanism, an emerging technology in the NN field. The system has been tested on several real-life logs showing an improvement in the performance of the prediction task.

In this paper we present the Process-To-Text (P2T) framework for the automatic generation of textual descriptive explanations of processes. P2T integrates three AI paradigms: process mining for extracting temporal and structural information from a process, fuzzy linguistic protoforms for modelling uncertain terms, and natural language generation for building the explanations. A real use-case in the cardiology domain is presented, showing the potential of P2T for providing natural language explanations addressed to specialists.

Prescriptive Process Monitoring is a prominent problem in Process Mining, which consists in identifying a set of actions to be recommended with the goal of optimising a target measure of interest or Key Performance Indicator (KPI). One challenge that makes this problem difficult is the need to provide Prescriptive Process Monitoring techniques only based on temporally annotated (process) execution data, stored in, so-called execution logs, due to the lack of well crafted and human validated explicit models. In this paper we aim at proposing an AI based approach that learns, by means of Reinforcement Learning (RL), an optimal policy (almost) only from the observation of past executions and recommends the best activities to carry on for optimizing a KPI of interest. This is achieved first by learning a Markov Decision Process for the specific KPIs from data, and then by using RL training to learn the optimal policy. The approach is validated on real and synthetic datasets and compared with off-policy Deep RL approaches. The ability of our approach to compare with, and often overcome, Deep RL approaches provides a contribution towards the exploitation of white box RL techniques in scenarios where only temporal execution data are available.

Traditional process mining techniques take event data as input where each event is associated with exactly one object. An object represents the instantiation of a process. Object-centric event data contain events associated with multiple objects expressing the interaction of multiple processes. As traditional process mining techniques assume events associated with exactly one object, these techniques cannot be applied to object-centric event data. To use traditional process mining techniques, the object-centric event data are flattened by removing all object references but one. The flattening process is lossy, leading to inaccurate features extracted from flattened data. Furthermore, the graph-like structure of object-centric event data is lost when flattening. In this paper, we introduce a general framework for extracting and encoding features from object-centric event data. We calculate features natively on the object-centric event data, leading to accurate measures. Furthermore, we provide three encodings for these features: tabular, sequential, and graph-based. While tabular and sequential encodings have been heavily used in process mining, the graph-based encoding is a new technique preserving the structure of the object-centric event data. We provide six use cases: a visualization and a prediction use case for each of the three encodings. We use explainable AI in the prediction use cases to show the utility of both the object-centric features and the structure of the sequential and graph-based encoding for a predictive model.

Modern data analytics underpinned by machine learning techniques has become a key enabler to the automation of data-led decision making. As an important branch of state-of-the-art data analytics, business process predictions are also faced with a challenge in regard to the lack of explanation to the reasoning and decision by the underlying `black-box' prediction models. With the development of interpretable machine learning techniques, explanations can be generated for a black-box model, making it possible for (human) users to access the reasoning behind machine learned predictions. In this paper, we aim to present an approach that allows us to use model explanations to investigate certain reasoning applied by machine learned predictions and detect potential issues with the underlying methods thus enhancing trust in business process prediction models. A novel contribution of our approach is the proposal of model inspection that leverages both the explanations generated by interpretable machine learning mechanisms and the contextual or domain knowledge extracted from event logs that record historical process execution. Findings drawn from this work are expected to serve as a key input to developing model reliability metrics and evaluation in the context of business process predictions.