Quantifying predictive uncertainty is essential for real world machine learning applications, especially in scenarios requiring reliable and interpretable predictions. Many common parametric approaches rely on neural networks to estimate distribution parameters by optimizing the negative log likelihood. However, these methods often encounter challenges like training instability and mode collapse, leading to poor estimates of the mean and variance of the target output distribution. In this work, we propose the Neural Energy Gaussian Mixture Model (NE-GMM), a novel framework that integrates Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) with Energy Score (ES) to enhance predictive uncertainty quantification. NE-GMM leverages the flexibility of GMM to capture complex multimodal distributions and leverages the robustness of ES to ensure well calibrated predictions in diverse scenarios. We theoretically prove that the hybrid loss function satisfies the properties of a strictly proper scoring rule, ensuring alignment with the true data distribution, and establish generalization error bounds, demonstrating that the model's empirical performance closely aligns with its expected performance on unseen data. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real world datasets demonstrate the superiority of NE-GMM in terms of both predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

Detection of occult hemorrhage (i.e., internal bleeding) in patients in intensive care units (ICUs) can pose significant challenges for critical care workers. Because blood loss may not always be clinically apparent, clinicians rely on monitoring vital signs for specific trends indicative of a hemorrhage event. The inherent difficulties of diagnosing such an event can lead to late intervention by clinicians which has catastrophic consequences. Therefore, a methodology for early detection of hemorrhage has wide utility. We develop a Bayesian regime switching model (RSM) that analyzes trends in patients' vitals and labs to provide a probabilistic assessment of the underlying physiological state that a patient is in at any given time. This article is motivated by a comprehensive dataset we curated from Mayo Clinic of 33,924 real ICU patient encounters. Longitudinal response measurements are modeled as a vector autoregressive process conditional on all latent states up to the current time point, and the latent states follow a Markov process. We present a novel Bayesian sampling routine to learn the posterior probability distribution of the latent physiological states, as well as develop an approach to account for pre-ICU-admission physiological changes. A simulation and real case study illustrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Sobolev quantities (norms, inner products, and distances) of probability density functions are important in the theory of nonparametric statistics, but have rarely been used in practice, partly due to a lack of practical estimators. They also include, as special cases, L^2 quantities which are used in many applications. We propose and analyze a family of estimators for Sobolev quantities of unknown probability density functions. We bound the finite-sample bias and variance of our estimators, finding that they are generally minimax rate-optimal. Our estimators are significantly more computationally tractable than previous estimators, and exhibit a statistical/computational trade-off allowing them to adapt to computational constraints. We also draw theoretical connections to recent work on fast two-sample testing and empirically validate our estimators on synthetic data.

We still need to demonstrate that the properties in P AC-Bayes analysis hold for both the margin operator and the robust margin operator. Then we complete the proof of Lemma 6.1. The proof of Lemma 7.1 and 7.2 is similar. We provide the proof of Lemma 7.2 below. Lemma 7.1 follows the proof of Lemma 7.2 by replacing the robust margin operator by the margin Since the above bound holds for any x in the domain X, we can get the following a.s.: R The second inequality is the tail bound above.

We propose a parsimonious quantile regression framework to learn the dynamic tail behaviors of financial asset returns.

Inthiswork,wepropose sampling-argmax, adifferentiable training method that imposes implicit constraints tothe shape of the probability map by minimizing the expectation of the localization error.

The core challenge in cooperative communication is the problem of common ground: having enough shared knowledge and understanding to successfully communicate.