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 pricing


Contextual Dynamic Pricing with Heterogeneous Buyers

Neural Information Processing Systems

We initiate the study of contextual dynamic pricing with a heterogeneous population of buyers, where a seller repeatedly posts prices (over T rounds) that depend on the observable d-dimensional context and receives binary purchase feedback. Unlike prior work assuming homogeneous buyer types, in our setting the buyer's valuation type is drawn from an unknown distribution with finite support size K . We develop a contextual pricing algorithm based on optimistic posterior sampling with regret eO(K dT), which we prove to be tight in dand T up to logarithmic terms. Finally, we refine our analysis for the non-contextual pricing case, proposing a variance-aware zooming algorithm that achieves the optimal dependence on K .


Robust Contextual Pricing

Neural Information Processing Systems

We provide an algorithm with regret O(CdloglogT) for contextual pricing with C corrupted rounds, improving over the previous bound of O(d3Clog2(T)) of Krishnamurthy et al. (2020). The result is based on a reduction that calls the uncorrupted algorithm as a black-box, unlike the previous approach that modifies the inner workings of the uncorrupted algorithm. As a result, it leads to a conceptually simpler algorithm. Finally, we provide a lower bound ruling out a O(C +dloglogT)algorithm. This shows that robustifying contextual pricing is harder than robustifying contextual search with ϵ-ball losses, for which it is possible to design algorithms where corruptions add only an extra additive term C to the regret.


ABayesian Approach to Contextual Dynamic Pricing using the Proportional Hazards Model with Discrete Price Data

Neural Information Processing Systems

Dynamic pricing algorithms typically assume continuous price variables, which may not reflect real-world scenarios where prices are often discrete. This paper demonstrates that leveraging discrete price information within a semi-parametric model can substantially improve performance, depending on the size of the support set of the price variable relative to the time horizon. Specifically, we propose a novel semi-parametric contextual dynamic pricing algorithm, namely BayesCoxCP, based on a Bayesian approach to the Cox proportional hazards model. Our theoretical analysis establishes high-probability regret bounds that adapt to the sparsity level γ, proving that our algorithm achieves a regret upper bound of eO(T(1+γ)/2 + dT) for γ < 1/3 and eO(T2/3 + dT) for γ 1/3, where γ represents the sparsity of the price grid relative to the time horizon T. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed algorithm significantly outperforms an existing method, particularly in scenarios with sparse discrete price points.


Transfer Faster, Price Smarter: Minimax Dynamic Pricing under Cross-Market Preference Shift

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study contextual dynamic pricing when a target market can leverage Kauxiliary markets--offline logs or concurrent streams--whose mean utilities differ by a structured preference shift. We propose Cross-Market Transfer Dynamic Pricing (CM-TDP), the first algorithm that provably handles such model-shift transfer and delivers minimax-optimal regret for both linear and nonparametric utility models. For linear utilities of dimension d, where the difference between source-and targettask coefficients is s0-sparse, CM-TDP attains regret eO (dK 1 + s0) log T .


Fairshare Data Pricing via Data Valuation for Large Language Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Training data is the backbone of large language models (LLMs), yet today's data markets often operate under exploitative pricing - sourcing data from marginalized groups with little pay or recognition. This paper introduces a theoretical framework for LLM data markets, modeling the strategic interactions between buyers (LLM builders) and sellers (human annotators). We begin with theoretical and empirical analysis showing how exploitative pricing drives high-quality sellers out of the market, degrading data quality and long-term model performance. Then we introduce fairshare, a pricing mechanism grounded in data valuation that quantifies each data's contribution.


Learning to price with resource constraints: from full information to machine-learned prices

Neural Information Processing Systems

Dynamic pricing with resource constraints is a critical challenge in online learning, requiring a delicate balance between exploring unknown demand patterns and exploiting known information to maximize revenue. We propose three tailored algorithms to address this problem across varying levels of prior knowledge: (1) a Boundary Attracted Re-solve Method for the full information setting, achieving logarithmic regret without the restrictive non-degeneracy condition; (2) an online learning algorithm for the no information setting, delivering an optimal $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret; and (3) an estimate-then-select re-solve algorithm for the informed price setting, leveraging machine-learned prices with known error bounds to bridge the gap between full and no information scenarios. Moreover, through numerical experiments, we demonstrate the robustness and practical applicability of our approaches. This work advances dynamic pricing by offering scalable solutions that adapt to diverse informational contexts while relaxing classical assumptions.


Contextual Online Pricing with (Biased) Offline Data

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study contextual online pricing with biased offline data. For the scalar price elasticity case, we identify the instance-dependent quantity $\delta^2$ that measures how far the offline data lies from the (unknown) online optimum. We show that the time length $T$, bias bound $V$, size $N$ and dispersion $\lambda_{\min}(\hat{\Sigma})$ of the offline data, and $\delta^2$ jointly determine the statistical complexity.


Your SaaS Is an Insurance Product: A Modeling Framework

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Capped-usage SaaS products -- LLM subscriptions such as Claude Code and ChatGPT, cloud platforms such as Vercel and Cloudflare Workers, corporate benefit platforms, identity-verification services with liability transfer -- share a structural signature with insurance products: a fixed premium decoupled from realized consumption, stochastic per-user demand with heavy-tailed severity, a non-fungible cap that resets on a fixed schedule, and a portfolio-level exposure that requires reserve adequacy under tail risk. We argue that this is not an analogy. It is the same operational problem actuarial science has been tooled for decades to address, restated with new dependent variables (tokens, bandwidth bytes, function-invocations, gym check-ins) in place of medical claims. This paper proposes a modeling framework for capped-usage SaaS pricing built from frequency-severity decomposition, premium calculation principles, and Monte Carlo reserve adequacy. We map the framework to publicly observable subscription tiers in two domains (LLM services and cloud platforms), ground it in canonical health-insurance economics (Arrow 1963; Pauly 1968; Manning et al. 1987; Brot-Goldberg et al. 2017), and demonstrate divergence from traditional unit economics through a worked example. The contribution is operational rather than theoretical: not a new theorem, but vocabulary and tools currently absent from cs.LG/stat.ML practice.


Harnessing Unimodality in Semiparametric Contextual Pricing via Oracle Price Map Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study contextual dynamic pricing in a semiparametric scalar-index valuation model where the latent value is $v_t=μ_\ast(\mathsf c_t)+ξ_t$, with an unknown utility map $μ_\ast$ and an unknown additive noise distribution. The key decision object is the one-dimensional oracle price map $u\mapsto p^\ast(u)$ induced by the scalar index $u=μ_\ast(\mathsf c)$ and the noise tail. Under the $β$-Hölder smoothness of the tail function for $β\geq 2$ and a revenue-geometry condition that gives a unique, stable, interior maximizer, this oracle map is itself $(β-1)$-smooth. We exploit such structure through $\mathsf{ORBIT}$, a modular coarse-to-fine policy that takes a scalar pilot index as input, localizes a benchmark price in each active bin, and learns a local polynomial approximation of the oracle map inside a trust region via bandit convex optimization. For the baseline linear utility model $μ_\ast(\mathsf c)=\mathsf c^\topθ_\ast$, an adaptive elliptical exploration scheme constructs the required scalar pilot online without distributional assumptions on the contexts. The resulting policy achieves regret $\widetilde{O}\big(T^{\frac{2β-1}{4β-3}}+\sqrt{dT}\big)$. For fixed $d$, we establish a matching lower bound in the horizon dependence, unveiling that the nonparametric oracle-map learning term is minimax sharp. The same scalar-pilot interface also yields extensions to sparse high-dimensional linear utility and nonparametric Hölder utility.


Optimal Contextual Pricing under Agnostic Non-Lipschitz Demand

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study contextual dynamic pricing with linear valuations and bounded-support agnostic noise, whose induced demand curve may be non-Lipschitz with arbitrary jumps and atoms. Such discontinuities break the cross-context interpolation arguments used by smooth-demand pricing algorithms, while the best previous method achieved only $\tilde O(T^{3/4})$ regret. We propose Conservative-Markdown Redirect-UCB Pricing, a polynomial-time algorithm that combines randomized parameter estimation, conservative residual-grid probing, and confidence-based one-step redirection. Our algorithm achieves $\tilde O(T^{2/3})$ optimal regret, matching the known lower bounds of Kleinberg and Leighton (2003) up to logarithmic factors and improving over the previous upper bound of Xu and Wang (2022). Under stochastic well-conditioned contexts, this closes the long-existing open regret gap in linear-valuation contextual pricing under agnostic non-Lipschitz noise distribution.