price change
- North America > United States > Michigan > Washtenaw County > Ann Arbor (0.14)
- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Oxfordshire > Oxford (0.14)
- North America > United States > Massachusetts > Middlesex County > Cambridge (0.04)
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- North America > United States > Michigan > Washtenaw County > Ann Arbor (0.14)
- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Oxfordshire > Oxford (0.14)
- North America > United States > Massachusetts > Middlesex County > Cambridge (0.04)
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- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning (1.00)
- Information Technology > Data Science > Data Mining > Big Data (0.47)
- Information Technology > Enterprise Applications > Human Resources > Learning Management (0.41)
An Efficient deep learning model to Predict Stock Price Movement Based on Limit Order Book
Yang, Jiahao, Fang, Ran, Zhang, Ming, Zhou, Jun
In high-frequency trading (HFT), leveraging limit order books (LOB) to model stock price movements is crucial for achieving profitable outcomes. However, this task is challenging due to the high-dimensional and volatile nature of the original data. Even recent deep learning models often struggle to capture price movement patterns effectively, particularly without well-designed features. We observed that raw LOB data exhibits inherent symmetry between the ask and bid sides, and the bid-ask differences demonstrate greater stability and lower complexity compared to the original data. Building on this insight, we propose a novel approach in which leverages the Siamese architecture to enhance the performance of existing deep learning models. The core idea involves processing the ask and bid sides separately using the same module with shared parameters. We applied our Siamese-based methods to several widely used strong baselines and validated their effectiveness using data from 14 military industry stocks in the Chinese A-share market. Furthermore, we integrated multi-head attention (MHA) mechanisms with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) module to investigate its role in modeling stock price movements. Our experiments used raw data and widely used Order Flow Imbalance (OFI) features as input with some strong baseline models. The results show that our method improves the performance of strong baselines in over 75$% of cases, excluding the Multi-Layer Perception (MLP) baseline, which performed poorly and is not considered practical. Furthermore, we found that Multi-Head Attention can enhance model performance, particularly over shorter forecasting horizons.
- North America > United States (0.04)
- Asia > China > Beijing > Beijing (0.04)
- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Oxfordshire > Oxford (0.04)
- Asia > Thailand (0.04)
DeFiScope: Detecting Various DeFi Price Manipulations with LLM Reasoning
Zhong, Juantao, Wu, Daoyuan, Liu, Ye, Xie, Maoyi, Liu, Yang, Li, Yi, Liu, Ning
DeFi (Decentralized Finance) is one of the most important applications of today's cryptocurrencies and smart contracts. It manages hundreds of billions in Total Value Locked (TVL) on-chain, yet it remains susceptible to common DeFi price manipulation attacks. Despite state-of-the-art (SOTA) systems like DeFiRanger and DeFort, we found that they are less effective to non-standard price models in custom DeFi protocols, which account for 44.2% of the 95 DeFi price manipulation attacks reported over the past three years. In this paper, we introduce the first LLM-based approach, DeFiScope, for detecting DeFi price manipulation attacks in both standard and custom price models. Our insight is that large language models (LLMs) have certain intelligence to abstract price calculation from code and infer the trend of token price changes based on the extracted price models. To further strengthen LLMs in this aspect, we leverage Foundry to synthesize on-chain data and use it to fine-tune a DeFi price-specific LLM. Together with the high-level DeFi operations recovered from low-level transaction data, DeFiScope detects various DeFi price manipulations according to systematically mined patterns. Experimental results show that DeFiScope achieves a high precision of 96% and a recall rate of 80%, significantly outperforming SOTA approaches. Moreover, we evaluate DeFiScope's cost-effectiveness and demonstrate its practicality by helping our industry partner confirm 147 real-world price manipulation attacks, including discovering 81 previously unknown historical incidents.
- North America > United States > District of Columbia > Washington (0.05)
- Asia > Singapore > Central Region > Singapore (0.04)
- Asia > China > Hong Kong (0.04)
- Information Technology > Security & Privacy (1.00)
- Banking & Finance > Trading (1.00)
Adventures in Demand Analysis Using AI
Bach, Philipp, Chernozhukov, Victor, Klaassen, Sven, Spindler, Martin, Teichert-Kluge, Jan, Vijaykumar, Suhas
This paper advances empirical demand analysis by integrating multimodal product representations derived from artificial intelligence (AI). Using a detailed dataset of toy cars on \textit{Amazon.com}, we combine text descriptions, images, and tabular covariates to represent each product using transformer-based embedding models. These embeddings capture nuanced attributes, such as quality, branding, and visual characteristics, that traditional methods often struggle to summarize. Moreover, we fine-tune these embeddings for causal inference tasks. We show that the resulting embeddings substantially improve the predictive accuracy of sales ranks and prices and that they lead to more credible causal estimates of price elasticity. Notably, we uncover strong heterogeneity in price elasticity driven by these product-specific features. Our findings illustrate that AI-driven representations can enrich and modernize empirical demand analysis. The insights generated may also prove valuable for applied causal inference more broadly.
- North America > United States > Massachusetts > Middlesex County > Cambridge (0.04)
- North America > United States > Virginia > Alexandria County > Alexandria (0.04)
- Europe > Czechia > Prague (0.04)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Natural Language (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Statistical Learning (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Neural Networks > Deep Learning (1.00)
Food for thought: How can machine learning help better predict and understand changes in food prices?
Kupferschmidt, Kristina L., Requiema, James, Simpson, Mya, Varsallay, Zohrah, Jackson, Ethan, Kupferschmidt, Cody, El-Shawa, Sara, Taylor, Graham W.
In this work, we address a lack of systematic understanding of fluctuations in food affordability in Canada. Canada's Food Price Report (CPFR) is an annual publication that predicts food inflation over the next calendar year. The published predictions are a collaborative effort between forecasting teams that each employ their own approach at Canadian Universities: Dalhousie University, the University of British Columbia, the University of Saskatchewan, and the University of Guelph/Vector Institute. While the University of Guelph/Vector Institute forecasting team has leveraged machine learning (ML) in previous reports, the most recent editions (2024--2025) have also included a human-in-the-loop approach. For the 2025 report, this focus was expanded to evaluate several different data-centric approaches to improve forecast accuracy. In this study, we evaluate how different types of forecasting models perform when estimating food price fluctuations. We also examine the sensitivity of models that curate time series data representing key factors in food pricing.
- Materials > Chemicals > Agricultural Chemicals (1.00)
- Government > Regional Government > North America Government > United States Government (1.00)
- Energy > Oil & Gas > Upstream (1.00)
- Banking & Finance > Economy (1.00)
Quantifying Qualitative Insights: Leveraging LLMs to Market Predict
Lee, Hoyoung, Choi, Youngsoo, Kwon, Yuhee
Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have the potential to transform financial analytics by integrating numerical and textual data. However, challenges such as insufficient context when fusing multimodal information and the difficulty in measuring the utility of qualitative outputs, which LLMs generate as text, have limited their effectiveness in tasks such as financial forecasting. This study addresses these challenges by leveraging daily reports from securities firms to create high-quality contextual information. The reports are segmented into text-based key factors and combined with numerical data, such as price information, to form context sets. By dynamically updating few-shot examples based on the query time, the sets incorporate the latest information, forming a highly relevant set closely aligned with the query point. Additionally, a crafted prompt is designed to assign scores to the key factors, converting qualitative insights into quantitative results. The derived scores undergo a scaling process, transforming them into real-world values that are used for prediction. Our experiments demonstrate that LLMs outperform time-series models in market forecasting, though challenges such as imperfect reproducibility and limited explainability remain.
- North America > Trinidad and Tobago > Trinidad > Arima > Arima (0.05)
- Asia > South Korea (0.04)
- North America > United States > New York > New York County > New York City (0.04)
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Comparison of different Artificial Neural Networks for Bitcoin price forecasting
Baumann, Silas, Busch, Karl A., Gardi, Hamza A. A.
-- This study investigates the impact of varying se - quen ce lengths on the accuracy of predicting cryptocurrency returns using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Utilizing the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) as a threshold criterion, we aim to enhance prediction accuracy by excluding returns that are smaller than this threshold, thus mitigating errors associated with minor returns. The subsequent evaluation focuses on the accuracy of predicted returns that exceed this threshold. We compare four sequence lengths -- 168 hours (7 days), 72 hours (3 days), 24 hours, and 12 hours -- each with a return prediction interval of 2 hours. Our findings reveal the influence of sequence length on prediction accuracy and underscore the potential for optimized sequence configurations in financial forecasting models. Since Bitcoin was introduced in 2008 as a digital peer - to - peer equivalent currency built on blockchain technology [1], it emerged as a financial asset that is nowadays mainly used for investments [2]. The forecasting of time series data, such as the Bitcoin price, is a well - known problem existing in many different domains. Depending on the type of data being predicted, the difficulty of achieving an accurate result varies. For example, the prediction of the next sunrise time is relatively easy, whereas tomor - row's winning lottery numbers cannot be predicted with any accuracy. There are many methods for time series forecasting, ranging from classical mathematical models to approaches using d eep neural networks and deep learning [3]. In this paper, the data - driven approach of forecasting by applying different types of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used. We try to predict the future price movement of Bitcoin just by reviewing the past mark et data and compare the performance of the different ANNs on this task based on their predictions.
- Europe > Germany > Baden-Württemberg > Karlsruhe Region > Karlsruhe (0.04)
- Oceania > Australia > Victoria > Melbourne (0.04)
Text2TimeSeries: Enhancing Financial Forecasting through Time Series Prediction Updates with Event-Driven Insights from Large Language Models
Kurisinkel, Litton Jose, Mishra, Pruthwik, Zhang, Yue
Time series models, typically trained on numerical data, are designed to forecast future values. These models often rely on weighted averaging techniques over time intervals. However, real-world time series data is seldom isolated and is frequently influenced by non-numeric factors. For instance, stock price fluctuations are impacted by daily random events in the broader world, with each event exerting a unique influence on price signals. Previously, forecasts in financial markets have been approached in two main ways: either as time-series problems over price sequence or sentiment analysis tasks. The sentiment analysis tasks aim to determine whether news events will have a positive or negative impact on stock prices, often categorizing them into discrete labels. Recognizing the need for a more comprehensive approach to accurately model time series prediction, we propose a collaborative modeling framework that incorporates textual information about relevant events for predictions. Specifically, we leverage the intuition of large language models about future changes to update real number time series predictions. We evaluated the effectiveness of our approach on financial market data.
- North America > Canada > Newfoundland and Labrador > Newfoundland > St. John's (0.14)
- North America > United States > Tennessee > Williamson County > Franklin (0.04)
- North America > United States > Pennsylvania > Delaware County > Radnor (0.04)
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- Financial News (1.00)
- Press Release (0.93)
- Research Report > New Finding (0.46)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Natural Language > Large Language Model (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Statistical Learning (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Neural Networks > Deep Learning (1.00)
Application of Liquid Rank Reputation System for Twitter Trend Analysis on Bitcoin
Saxena, Abhishek, Kolonin, Anton
Analyzing social media trends can create a win-win situation for both creators and consumers. Creators can receive fair compensation, while consumers gain access to engaging, relevant, and personalized content. This paper proposes a new model for analyzing Bitcoin trends on Twitter by incorporating a 'liquid democracy' approach based on user reputation. This system aims to identify the most impactful trends and their influence on Bitcoin prices and trading volume. It uses a Twitter sentiment analysis model based on a reputation rating system to determine the impact on Bitcoin price change and traded volume. In addition, the reputation model considers the users' higher-order friends on the social network (the initial Twitter input channels in our case study) to improve the accuracy and diversity of the reputation results. We analyze Bitcoin-related news on Twitter to understand how trends and user sentiment, measured through our Liquid Rank Reputation System, affect Bitcoin price fluctuations and trading activity within the studied time frame. This reputation model can also be used as an additional layer in other trend and sentiment analysis models. The paper proposes the implementation, challenges, and future scope of the liquid rank reputation model.
- Asia > Russia > Siberian Federal District > Novosibirsk Oblast > Novosibirsk (0.05)
- Europe > Russia (0.05)
- Information Technology > Communications > Social Media (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Natural Language > Information Extraction (0.48)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Natural Language > Discourse & Dialogue (0.48)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Personal Assistant Systems (0.34)