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 prescriptive model


Beyond Suspension: A Two-phase Methodology for Concluding Sports Leagues

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Problem definition: Professional sports leagues may be suspended due to various reasons such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic. A critical question the league must address when re-opening is how to appropriately select a subset of the remaining games to conclude the season in a shortened time frame. Academic/practical relevance: Despite the rich literature on scheduling an entire season starting from a blank slate, concluding an existing season is quite different. Our approach attempts to achieve team rankings similar to that which would have resulted had the season been played out in full. Methodology: We propose a data-driven model which exploits predictive and prescriptive analytics to produce a schedule for the remainder of the season comprised of a subset of originally-scheduled games. Our model introduces novel rankings-based objectives within a stochastic optimization model, whose parameters are first estimated using a predictive model. We introduce a deterministic equivalent reformulation along with a tailored Frank-Wolfe algorithm to efficiently solve our problem, as well as a robust counterpart based on min-max regret. Results: We present simulation-based numerical experiments from previous National Basketball Association (NBA) seasons 2004--2019, and show that our models are computationally efficient, outperform a greedy benchmark that approximates a non-rankings-based scheduling policy, and produce interpretable results. Managerial implications: Our data-driven decision-making framework may be used to produce a shortened season with 25-50\% fewer games while still producing an end-of-season ranking similar to that of the full season, had it been played.


Contextual Stochastic Vehicle Routing with Time Windows

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the vehicle routing problem with time windows (VRPTW) and stochastic travel times, in which the decision-maker observes related contextual information, represented as feature variables, before making routing decisions. Despite the extensive literature on stochastic VRPs, the integration of feature variables has received limited attention in this context. We introduce the contextual stochastic VRPTW, which minimizes the total transportation cost and expected late arrival penalties conditioned on the observed features. Since the joint distribution of travel times and features is unknown, we present novel data-driven prescriptive models that use historical data to provide an approximate solution to the problem. We distinguish the prescriptive models between point-based approximation, sample average approximation, and penalty-based approximation, each taking a different perspective on dealing with stochastic travel times and features. We develop specialized branch-price-and-cut algorithms to solve these data-driven prescriptive models. In our computational experiments, we compare the out-of-sample cost performance of different methods on instances with up to one hundred customers. Our results show that, surprisingly, a feature-dependent sample average approximation outperforms existing and novel methods in most settings.


Online Soft Conformance Checking: Any Perspective Can Indicate Deviations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Within process mining, a relevant activity is conformance checking. Such activity consists of establishing the extent to which actual executions of a process conform the expected behavior of a reference model. Current techniques focus on prescriptive models of the control-flow as references. In certain scenarios, however, a prescriptive model might not be available and, additionally, the control-flow perspective might not be ideal for this purpose. This paper tackles these two problems by suggesting a conformance approach that uses a descriptive model (i.e., a pattern of the observed behavior over a certain amount of time) which is not necessarily referring to the control-flow (e.g., it can be based on the social network of handover of work). Additionally, the entire approach can work both offline and online, thus providing feedback in real time. The approach, which is implemented in ProM, has been tested and results from 3 experiments with real world as well as synthetic data are reported.


Integrated Optimization of Predictive and Prescriptive Tasks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In traditional machine learning techniques, the degree of closeness between true and predicted values generally measures the quality of predictions. However, these learning algorithms do not consider prescription problems where the predicted values will be used as input to decision problems. In this paper, we efficiently leverage feature variables, and we propose a new framework directly integrating predictive tasks under prescriptive tasks in order to prescribe consistent decisions. We train the parameters of predictive algorithm within a prescription problem via bilevel optimization techniques. We present the structure of our method and demonstrate its performance using synthetic data compared to classical methods like point-estimate-based, stochastic optimization and recently developed machine learning based optimization methods. In addition, we control generalization error using different penalty approaches and optimize the integration over validation data set.


Sr Data Scientist ai-jobs.net

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CenturyLink (NYSE: CTL) is the second largest U.S. communications provider to global enterprise customers. With customers in more than 60 countries and an intense focus on the customer experience, CenturyLink strives to be the world's best networking company by solving customers' increased demand for reliable and secure connections. The company also serves as its customers' trusted partner, helping them manage increased network and IT complexity and providing managed network and cyber security solutions that help protect their business. The Data Scientist is a highly skilled individual contributor, under minimal supervision, who designs and develops programs, methods, processes, and systems to consolidate and analyze diverse, structured and unstructured "big data" sources to generate actionable insights and solutions using machine learning and advanced analytics. The Data Scientist proactively identifies meaningful insights by executing data discovery, exploratory data analysis, and iteratively developing predictive and prescriptive models to identify optimal solutions.


VIA Analytics - Vitria

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The diversity of IoT use cases demands a range of analytics capability, spanning from traditional descriptive analytics to more advanced predictive and prescriptive analytics. VIA supports an extensive set of analytic techniques that meet the demands of IoT. VIA Analytics includes all the key types of analytics – real-time, historical, predictive, and prescriptive – needed for IoT. It executes fast analytics in real-time to provide the context and insight needed for the fast decision-making required in IoT. Highlights of VIA's Analytic capabilities include: Time-series analysis provides insight into the behavior of IoT networks over time.


Next In Tech

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Digital-related investment in industrial production is growing fast. Through 2020, enterprises expect to pump $907 billion annually into digital technologies on the industrial floor, according to PwC's Industry 4.0 research. That investment is expected to increase revenues by $493 billion annually and reduce costs by $421 billion each year. But where and how those dividends will be unearthed is only now coming into view. PwC sees enterprises following a path that spans prediction, prescription, optimization, and new business models.