Snowpack levels across a wide swath of western US states are among the lowest seen in decades, even as regulators struggle to negotiate water rights in the region. States across the western US are facing record low snowpack levels in the middle of the winter season. The snowpack crisis, which could mean a drier, more wildfire -prone summer, is coming as states are racing unsuccessfully against a deadline to agree on terms to share water in the Colorado River Basin, the source of water for 40 million people across seven states in the West. "Barring a genuinely miraculous turnaround" in the remainder of the winter, says Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, the low snowpack "has the potential to worsen both the ecological and political crisis on the Colorado Basin, and then also produce really adverse wildfire conditions in some parts of the West." Data provided by the US Department of Agriculture show that as of February 12, snowpack was at less than half its normal level in areas across nine Western states--some of the lowest levels seen in decades.

Weather conditions can drastically alter the state of crops and rangelands, and in turn, impact the incomes and food security of individuals worldwide. Satellite-based remote sensing offers an effective way to monitor vegetation and climate variables on regional and global scales. The annual peak Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), derived from satellite observations, is closely associated with crop development, rangeland biomass, and vegetation growth. Although various machine learning methods have been developed to forecast NDVI over short time ranges, such as one-month-ahead predictions, long-term forecasting approaches, such as one-year-ahead predictions of vegetation conditions, are not yet available. To fill this gap, we develop a two-phase machine learning model to forecast the one-year-ahead peak NDVI over high-resolution grids, using the Four Corners region of the Southwestern United States as a testbed. In phase one, we identify informative climate attributes, including precipitation and maximum vapor pressure deficit, and develop the generalized parallel Gaussian process that captures the relationship between climate attributes and NDVI. In phase two, we forecast these climate attributes using historical data at least one year before the NDVI prediction month, which then serve as inputs to forecast the peak NDVI at each spatial grid. We developed open-source tools that outperform alternative methods for both gross NDVI and grid-based NDVI one-year forecasts, providing information that can help farmers and ranchers make actionable plans a year in advance.

Winter wonderlands are only possible thanks to a sparkly light trick. Few languages have as many distinct words for snow as Japanese, which has words like miyuki or beautiful snow. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. When someone says " as white as snow," it's easy to envision what they're talking about. We often think of snow as a dazzling white, the same way we immediately conjure up a color when someone says "blood red" or "ocean blue."

What We Know About the Winter Storm About to Hit the US--and What We Don't A huge portion of the United States is going to be hit with snow or freezing rain this weekend. Exactly where, what, and how much remains uncertain. Over the past weekend, when weather models first started forecasting a winter storm that would sweep over large parts of the country, Sean Sublette, a meteorologist living in Virginia, started telling people in his area to prepare for snow . At the time, Sublette says, "a lot of the data started to point to a substantial snow storm for the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, with significant ice farther southward into Carolina's Tennessee Valley." Then, Sublette woke up Wednesday morning.

In climate science and meteorology, high-resolution local precipitation (rain and snowfall) predictions are limited by the computational costs of simulation-based methods. Statistical downscaling, or super-resolution, is a common workaround where a low-resolution prediction is improved using statistical approaches. Unlike traditional computer vision tasks, weather and climate applications require capturing the accurate conditional distribution of high-resolution given low-resolution patterns to assure reliable ensemble averages and unbiased estimates of extreme events, such as heavy rain. This work extends recent video diffusion models to precipitation super-resolution, employing a deterministic downscaler followed by a temporally-conditioned diffusion model to capture noise characteristics and high-frequency patterns. We test our approach on FV3GFS output, an established large-scale global atmosphere model, and compare it against six state-of-the-art baselines. Our analysis, capturing CRPS, MSE, precipitation distributions, and qualitative aspects using California and the Himalayas as examples, establishes our method as a new standard for data-driven precipitation downscaling.

Modern deep learning approaches have shown promising results in meteorological applications like precipitation nowcasting, synthetic radar generation, front detection and several others. In order to effectively train and validate these complex algorithms, large and diverse datasets containing high-resolution imagery are required. Petabytes of weather data, such as from the Geostationary Environmental Satellite System (GOES) and the Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) system, are available to the public; however, the size and complexity of these datasets is a hindrance to developing and training deep models. To help address this problem, we introduce the Storm EVent ImagRy (SEVIR) dataset - a single, rich dataset that combines spatially and temporally aligned data from multiple sensors, along with baseline implementations of deep learning models and evaluation metrics, to accelerate new algorithmic innovations. SEVIR is an annotated, curated and spatio-temporally aligned dataset containing over 10,000 weather events that each consist of 384 km x 384 km image sequences spanning 4 hours of time.

AI-for-science approaches have been applied to solve scientific problems (e.g., nuclear fusion, ecology, genomics, meteorology) and have achieved highly promising results. Spatial precipitation downscaling is one of the most important meteorological problem and urgently requires the participation of AI. However, the lack of a well-organized and annotated large-scale dataset hinders the training and verification of more effective and advancing deep-learning models for precipitation downscaling. To alleviate these obstacles, we present the first large-scale spatial precipitation downscaling dataset named RainNet, which contains more than 62,400 pairs of high-quality low/high-resolution precipitation maps for over 17 years, ready to help the evolution of deep learning models in precipitation downscaling. Specifically, the precipitation maps carefully collected in RainNet cover various meteorological phenomena (e.g., hurricane, squall), which is of great help to improve the model generalization ability.

We present a non-linear AI-model designed to reconstruct monthly mean anomalies of the European temperature and precipitation based on the Euro-Atlantic Weather regimes (WR) indices. WR represent recurrent, quasi-stationary, and persistent states of the atmospheric circulation that exert considerable influence over the European weather, therefore offering an opportunity for sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. While much research has focused on studying the correlation and impacts of the WR on European weather, the estimation of ground-level climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, from Euro-Atlantic WR remains largely unexplored and is currently limited to linear methods. The presented AI model can capture and introduce complex non-linearities in the relation between the WR indices, describing the state of the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation and the corresponding surface temperature and precipitation anomalies in Europe. We discuss the AI-model performance in reconstructing the monthly mean two-meter temperature and total precipitation anomalies in the European winter and summer, also varying the number of WR used to describe the monthly atmospheric circulation. We assess the impact of errors on the WR indices in the reconstruction and show that a mean absolute relative error below 80% yields improved seasonal reconstruction compared to the ECMWF operational seasonal forecast system, SEAS5. As a demonstration of practical applicability, we evaluate the model using WR indices predicted by SEAS5, finding slightly better or comparable skill relative to the SEAS5 forecast itself. Our findings demonstrate that WR-based anomaly reconstruction, powered by AI tools, offers a promising pathway for sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting.