Seasonal-scale climate prediction plays a critical role in supporting agricultural planning, disaster prevention, and long-term decision making. In particular, reliable forecasts issued 1-6 months in advance are essential for early warning of flood and drought risks associated with precipitation during the East Asian summer monsoon season. However, while the use of machine learning techniques has advanced rapidly in weather and subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting, partly driven by the availability of benchmark datasets, their application to seasonal-scale prediction remains limited. Existing seasonal prediction primarily relies on ensemble forecasts from numerical models, which, while physically grounded, are subject to biases and uncertainties at long lead times. Motivated by these challenges, we propose SeasonBench-EA, a benchmark dataset for seasonal prediction in East Asia region.

Probabilistic weather forecasting is undergoing rapid transformation with artificial intelligence (AI). In traditional numerical weather prediction, computing power can limit how well ensemble forecasts approximate the unknown statistical distribution of future states. AI models facilitate larger ensembles and are trained with probabilistic considerations, ideally leading to better uncertainty quantification. Forecasts from these state-of-the-art models are often considered well-calibrated. However, here we show that the statistical coverage of such models, the ultimate measure of calibration, can struggle, especially on extreme events. To address this shortcoming, we employ conformal prediction, a class of statistical methods that mathematically guarantees coverage under no distributional assumptions, unlike previous post-processing techniques. We apply online conformal prediction to temperature and precipitation forecasts (including extremes) of three leading global weather models, GenCast, NeuralGCM, and AIFS-ENS, ensuring calibrated uncertainty at no expense to other probabilistic metrics. This post-processing method can be applied to any forecasting model.

Sparse point observations are increasingly available for precipitation nowcasting, but it is unclear how much they improve dense radar-field forecasts. We partially address this question with a multimodal graph neural network nowcasting system over the Nordic radar domain. The model predicts rain rate every five minutes up to two hours ahead and is trained with different combinations of radar history, MEPS numerical weather prediction, Netatmo surface observations, MSG satellite channels, stochastic noise, and CRPS-based ensemble losses. The study is designed as an ablation of operationally relevant information sources and training objectives. We compare radar-only, NWP-informed, station-informed, satellite-informed, noise-augmented, and CRPS-based configurations using complementary diagnostics on the radar grid, at station locations, for rain onset, and through oracle, displacement, and amplitude scores. The results show that each source improves a different part of the forecast problem. MEPS stabilises radar-only extrapolation, Netatmo observations improve local station and onset diagnostics, and satellite predictors reduce some station-level biases but may activate rain too early when used deterministically. CRPS-based configurations provide the most consistent radar-grid gains, while the combined satellite and CRPS setup gives the best overall oracle/DAS score. These results do not support the conclusion that point observations are uninformative for nowcasting, but they show that local observational skill and spatially coherent radar-field skill are distinct targets. The practical implication is that sparse observations can provide useful local constraints, but their benefit for radar-like fields depends on the training loss, uncertainty representation, and how observation support is encoded in the model.

The lack of fine-grained, large-scale datasets on water availability presents a critical barrier to applying machine learning (ML) for agricultural water management. Since there are multiple natural and anthropogenic factors that influence water availability, incorporating diverse multimodal features can significantly improve modeling performance. However, integrating such heterogeneous data is challenging due to spatial misalignments, inconsistent formats, semantic label ambiguities, and class imbalances. To address these challenges, we introduce IRRISIGHT, a large-scale, multimodal dataset spanning 20 U.S. states. It consists of 1.4 million pixel-aligned 224 224 patches that fuse satellite imagery with rich environmental attributes. We develop a robust geospatial fusion pipeline that aligns raster, vector, and point-based data on a unified 10m grid, and employ domain-informed structured prompts to convert tabular attributes into natural language. With irrigation type classification as a representative problem, the dataset is AI-ready, offering a spatially disjoint train/test split and extensive benchmarking with both vision and vision-language models. Our results demonstrate that multimodal representations substantially improve model performance, establishing a foundation for future research on water availability.

Can cloud seeding save us from water bankruptcy? We've long tried to control the weather by engineering rainfall. Now such cloud-seeding efforts are escalating, creating conflict between countries and stoking conspiracy theories. On a cold, windy night in November 2025, a quadcopter drone took off from a farm field at the foot of the Bannock mountain range north of Salt Lake City, rising 4000 metres into thick clouds. A fan with anti-icing propellers kicked into action, blowing yellow dust out of a cannister attached to the back of the drone. Cloud-seeding company Rainmaker was trying to fight dust with dust, spreading silver iodide powder to encourage precipitation and end the deadly dust storms plaguing Utah's capital.

More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. Storm chasers took this photo of a rotating wall cloud in Clovis, New Mexico, in May 2023. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. Flying cows, SUVs soaring through the air like toys, quaint towns that are virtually wiped off the map. Hollywood certainly makes the very real world of chasing tornadoes appear exciting on the big screen.

Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy out to two weeks thanks to steady advances in physics-based dynamical models and data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models. However, model skill drops precipitously at subseasonal timescales (2 - 6 weeks ahead), due to compounding errors and persistent biases. To counter this degradation, we introduce probabilistic bias correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that substantially reduces systematic error by learning to correct historical probabilistic forecasts. When applied to the leading dynamical and AI models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), PBC doubles the subseasonal skill of the AI Forecasting System and improves the skill of the operationally-debiased dynamical model for 91% of pressure, 92% of temperature, and 98% of precipitation targets. We designed PBC for operational deployment, and, in ECMWF's 2025 real-time forecasting competition, its global forecasts placed first for all weather variables and lead times, outperforming the dynamical models from six operational forecasting centers, an international dynamical multi-model ensemble, ECMWF's AI Forecasting System, and the forecasting systems of 34 teams worldwide. These probabilistic skill gains translate into more accurate prediction of extreme events and have the potential to improve agricultural planning, energy management, and disaster preparedness in vulnerable communities.