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Accelerating Time Series Foundation Models with Speculative Decoding

Subbaraman, Pranav, Sun, Fang, Yao, Yue, Tang, Huacong, Luo, Xiao, Sun, Yizhou

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern web applications--from real-time content recommendation and dynamic pricing to CDN optimization--increasingly rely on time-series forecasting to deliver personalized experiences to billions of users. Large-scale Transformer-based models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in time-series forecasting but suffer from high computational costs, limiting their deployment in latency-sensitive web applications. To address this challenge, we propose a general inference acceleration framework that adapts speculative decoding to autoregressive time-series models. Our approach employs a smaller "draft" model to propose future time-series patches, which are then verified in parallel by a larger "target" model, reducing the number of sequential forward passes required. We address key technical challenges in adapting this technique from discrete language tokens to continuous time-series distributions, including the design of acceptance criteria for multivariate Gaussian patches and practical variants that balance efficiency with accuracy. Through experiments on time series forecasting benchmarks relevant to web applications, we demonstrate significant inference speedups while maintaining competitive accuracy. The framework requires no architectural modifications to existing foundation models, making it immediately applicable to accelerate deployed time-series forecasting systems. Our implementation can be found at https://github.com/PranavSubbaraman/STRIDE



Trading Computation for Communication: Distributed Stochastic Dual Coordinate Ascent

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present and study a distributed optimization algorithm by employing a stochastic dual coordinate ascent method. Stochastic dual coordinate ascent methods enjoy strong theoretical guarantees and often have better performances than stochastic gradient descent methods in optimizing regularized loss minimization problems. It still lacks of efforts in studying them in a distributed framework. We make a progress along the line by presenting a distributed stochastic dual coordinate ascent algorithm in a star network, with an analysis of the tradeoff between computation and communication. We verify our analysis by experiments on real data sets. Moreover, we compare the proposed algorithm with distributed stochastic gradient descent methods and distributed alternating direction methods of multipliers for optimizing SVMs in the same distributed framework, and observe competitive performances.


Trading Computation for Communication: Distributed Stochastic Dual Coordinate Ascent

Yang, Tianbao

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present and study a distributed optimization algorithm by employing a stochastic dual coordinate ascent method. Stochastic dual coordinate ascent methods enjoy strong theoretical guarantees and often have better performances than stochastic gradient descent methods in optimizing regularized loss minimization problems. It still lacks of efforts in studying them in a distributed framework. We make a progress along the line by presenting a distributed stochastic dual coordinate ascent algorithm in a star network, with an analysis of the tradeoff between computation and communication. We verify our analysis by experiments on real data sets. Moreover, we compare the proposed algorithm with distributed stochastic gradient descent methods and distributed alternating direction methods of multipliers for optimizing SVMs in the same distributed framework, and observe competitive performances.