Starmer could have scrapped child benefit cap last year - why did he wait? I can't remember when I last heard Sir Keir Starmer sounding so passionate. The prime minister's critics regularly lambast him for what they see as robotic or emotion-free communication, but you could not accuse him of that as we spoke on a post-Budget visit to a community centre in Rugby, Warwickshire. I could see it in his eyes and hear it in his tone. I have repeatedly said that I want my government to drive down child poverty.

Since Donald Trump launched his chaotic trade war earlier this year, it has become a truism to say he has plunged the world economy into crisis. At last month's spring meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund in Washington, where policymakers and finance ministers from all over congregated, the attenders were "shellshocked", the economist Eswar Prasad, a former senior IMF official who now teaches at Cornell, told me. "The sense is that the world has changed fundamentally in ways that cannot easily be put back together. Every country has to figure out its own place in this new world order and how to protect its own interests." Trump's assault on the old global order is real. But in taking its measure, it's necessary to look beyond the daily headlines and acknowledge that being in a state of crisis is nothing new to capitalism. It's also important to note that, as Karl Marx wrote in The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Napoleon: "Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please."

Eradicating poverty is the first goal in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. However, aporophobia -- the societal bias against people living in poverty -- constitutes a major obstacle to designing, approving and implementing poverty-mitigation policies. This work presents an initial step towards operationalizing the concept of aporophobia to identify and track harmful beliefs and discriminative actions against poor people on social media. In close collaboration with non-profits and governmental organizations, we conduct data collection and exploration. Then we manually annotate a corpus of English tweets from five world regions for the presence of (1) direct expressions of aporophobia, and (2) statements referring to or criticizing aporophobic views or actions of others, to comprehensively characterize the social media discourse related to bias and discrimination against the poor. Based on the annotated data, we devise a taxonomy of categories of aporophobic attitudes and actions expressed through speech on social media. Finally, we train several classifiers and identify the main challenges for automatic detection of aporophobia in social networks. This work paves the way towards identifying, tracking, and mitigating aporophobic views on social media at scale.

This study leverages spatial machine learning (SML) to enhance the accuracy of Proxy Means Testing (PMT) for poverty targeting in Indonesia. Conventional PMT methodologies are prone to exclusion and inclusion errors due to their inability to account for spatial dependencies and regional heterogeneity. By integrating spatial contiguity matrices, SML models mitigate these limitations, facilitating a more precise identification and comparison of geographical poverty clusters. Utilizing household survey data from the Social Welfare Integrated Data Survey (DTKS) for the periods 2016 to 2020 and 2016 to 2021, this study examines spatial patterns in income distribution and delineates poverty clusters at both provincial and district levels. Empirical findings indicate that the proposed SML approach reduces exclusion errors from 28% to 20% compared to standard machine learning models, underscoring the critical role of spatial analysis in refining machine learning-based poverty targeting. These results highlight the potential of SML to inform the design of more equitable and effective social protection policies, particularly in geographically diverse contexts. Future research can explore the applicability of spatiotemporal models and assess the generalizability of SML approaches across varying socio-economic settings.

This paper investigates the novel application of Large Language Models (LLMs) with vision capabilities to analyze satellite imagery for village-level poverty prediction. Although LLMs were originally designed for natural language understanding, their adaptability to multimodal tasks, including geospatial analysis, has opened new frontiers in data-driven research. By leveraging advancements in vision-enabled LLMs, we assess their ability to provide interpretable, scalable, and reliable insights into human poverty from satellite images. Using a pairwise comparison approach, we demonstrate that ChatGPT can rank satellite images based on poverty levels with accuracy comparable to domain experts. These findings highlight both the promise and the limitations of LLMs in socioeconomic research, providing a foundation for their integration into poverty assessment workflows. This study contributes to the ongoing exploration of unconventional data sources for welfare analysis and opens pathways for cost-effective, large-scale poverty monitoring.

The ability to revise essays in response to feedback is important for students' writing success. An automated writing evaluation (AWE) system that supports students in revising their essays is thus essential. We present eRevise+RF, an enhanced AWE system for assessing student essay revisions (e.g., changes made to an essay to improve its quality in response to essay feedback) and providing revision feedback. We deployed the system with 6 teachers and 406 students across 3 schools in Pennsylvania and Louisiana. The results confirmed its effectiveness in (1) assessing student essays in terms of evidence usage, (2) extracting evidence and reasoning revisions across essays, and (3) determining revision success in responding to feedback. The evaluation also suggested eRevise+RF is a helpful system for young students to improve their argumentative writing skills through revision and formative feedback.

Large language models (LLMs) can be abused at scale to create non-factual content and spread disinformation. Detecting LLM-generated content is essential to mitigate these risks, but current classifiers often fail to generalize in open-world contexts. Prior work shows that LLMs tend to rewrite LLM-generated content less frequently, which can be used for detection and naturally generalizes to unforeseen data. However, we find that the rewriting edit distance between human and LLM content can be indistinguishable across domains, leading to detection failures. We propose training an LLM to rewrite input text, producing minimal edits for LLM-generated content and more edits for human-written text, deriving a distinguishable and generalizable edit distance difference across different domains. Experiments on text from 21 independent domains and three popular LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Gemini, and Llama-3) show that our classifier outperforms the state-of-the-art zero-shot classifier by up to 20.6% on AUROC score and the rewriting classifier by 9.2% on F1 score. Our work suggests that LLM can effectively detect machine-generated text if they are trained properly.

Satellite imagery has emerged as an important tool to analyse demographic, health, and development indicators. While various deep learning models have been built for these tasks, each is specific to a particular problem, with few standard benchmarks available. We propose a new dataset pairing satellite imagery and high-quality survey data on child poverty to benchmark satellite feature representations. Our dataset consists of 33,608 images, each 10 km $\times$ 10 km, from 19 countries in Eastern and Southern Africa in the time period 1997-2022. As defined by UNICEF, multidimensional child poverty covers six dimensions and it can be calculated from the face-to-face Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program . As part of the benchmark, we test spatial as well as temporal generalization, by testing on unseen locations, and on data after the training years. Using our dataset we benchmark multiple models, from low-level satellite imagery models such as MOSAIKS , to deep learning foundation models, which include both generic vision models such as Self-Distillation with no Labels (DINOv2) models and specific satellite imagery models such as SatMAE. We provide open source code for building the satellite dataset, obtaining ground truth data from DHS and running various models assessed in our work.

Poverty has a significant geographic component, which has been studied by human geographers and developmental economists, giving rise to techniques such as small area estimation. With the availability of accurate and high-resolution data, it is possible to produce poverty maps that display the spatial distribution of poverty, and this has been instrumental in deciphering its determinants (Gauci, 2005). The availability of high-resolution geographically specified socio-economic data has opened avenues for more precise analysis that target areas of poverty. Furthermore, the accumulation of data over time has allowed for the inclusion of temporal dynamics in understanding the persistent nature of some impoverished areas. While pockets of poverty can be spatially defined, understanding the social, economic, and physical processes that create self-perpetuating geographies of poverty remain a pressing challenge, aspects of this geography have received attention in various literature (Bird et al., 2010), involving spatial poverty traps (Jalan, Ravallion, et al., 1997), crime (Hipp, 2016), and economic aid (Briggs, 2018).

Large language models (LLMs) are capable of producing documents, and retrieval augmented generation (RAG) has shown itself to be a powerful method for improving accuracy without sacrificing fluency. However, not all information can be retrieved from text. We propose an approach that uses the analysis of structured data to generate fact sets that are used to guide generation in much the same way that retrieved documents are used in RAG. This analytics augmented generation (AAG) approach supports the ability to utilize standard analytic techniques to generate facts that are then converted to text and passed to an LLM. We present a neurosymbolic platform, Satyrn that leverages AAG to produce accurate, fluent, and coherent reports grounded in large scale databases. In our experiments, we find that Satyrn generates reports in which over 86% accurate claims while maintaining high levels of fluency and coherence, even when using smaller language models such as Mistral-7B, as compared to GPT-4 Code Interpreter in which just 57% of claims are accurate.