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 posterior concentration rate



Bayesian Additive Regression Trees for functional ANOVA model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a powerful statistical model that leverages the strengths of Bayesian inference and regression trees. It has received significant attention for capturing complex non-linear relationships and interactions among predictors. However, the accuracy of BART often comes at the cost of interpretability. To address this limitation, we propose ANOVA Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (ANOVA-BART), a novel extension of BART based on the functional ANOVA decomposition, which is used to decompose the variability of a function into different interactions, each representing the contribution of a different set of covariates or factors. Our proposed ANOVA-BART enhances interpretability, preserves and extends the theoretical guarantees of BART, and achieves superior predictive performance. Specifically, we establish that the posterior concentration rate of ANOVA-BART is nearly minimax optimal, and further provides the same convergence rates for each interaction that are not available for BART. Moreover, comprehensive experiments confirm that ANOVA-BART surpasses BART in both accuracy and uncertainty quantification, while also demonstrating its effectiveness in component selection. These results suggest that ANOVA-BART offers a compelling alternative to BART by balancing predictive accuracy, interpretability, and theoretical consistency.


Convergence rates of a partition based Bayesian multivariate density estimation method

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study a class of non-parametric density estimators under Bayesian settings. The estimators are obtained by adaptively partitioning the sample space. Under a suitable prior, we analyze the concentration rate of the posterior distribution, and demonstrate that the rate does not directly depend on the dimension of the problem in several special cases. Another advantage of this class of Bayesian density estimators is that it can adapt to the unknown smoothness of the true density function, thus achieving the optimal convergence rate without artificial conditions on the density.


Posterior concentrations of fully-connected Bayesian neural networks with general priors on the weights

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian approaches for training deep neural networks (BNNs) have received significant interest and have been effectively utilized in a wide range of applications. There have been several studies on the properties of posterior concentrations of BNNs. However, most of these studies only demonstrate results in BNN models with sparse or heavy-tailed priors. Surprisingly, no theoretical results currently exist for BNNs using Gaussian priors, which are the most commonly used one. The lack of theory arises from the absence of approximation results of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) that are non-sparse and have bounded parameters. In this paper, we present a new approximation theory for non-sparse DNNs with bounded parameters. Additionally, based on the approximation theory, we show that BNNs with non-sparse general priors can achieve near-minimax optimal posterior concentration rates to the true model.


Theory of Posterior Concentration for Generalized Bayesian Additive Regression Trees

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) are a powerful semiparametric ensemble learning technique for modeling nonlinear regression functions. Although initially BART was proposed for predicting only continuous and binary response variables, over the years multiple extensions have emerged that are suitable for estimating a wider class of response variables (e.g. categorical and count data) in a multitude of application areas. In this paper we describe a Generalized framework for Bayesian trees and their additive ensembles where the response variable comes from an exponential family distribution and hence encompasses a majority of these variants of BART. We derive sufficient conditions on the response distribution, under which the posterior concentrates at a minimax rate, up to a logarithmic factor. In this regard our results provide theoretical justification for the empirical success of BART and its variants.


Convergence rates of a partition based Bayesian multivariate density estimation method

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study a class of non-parametric density estimators under Bayesian settings. The estimators are obtained by adaptively partitioning the sample space. Under a suitable prior, we analyze the concentration rate of the posterior distribution, and demonstrate that the rate does not directly depend on the dimension of the problem in several special cases. Another advantage of this class of Bayesian density estimators is that it can adapt to the unknown smoothness of the true density function, thus achieving the optimal convergence rate without artificial conditions on the density. We also validate the theoretical results on a variety of simulated data sets.