Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) provide a robust framework for decision-making under uncertainty in applications such as autonomous driving and robotic exploration. Their extension, $\rho$POMDPs, introduces belief-dependent rewards, enabling explicit reasoning about uncertainty. Existing online $\rho$POMDP solvers for continuous spaces rely on fixed belief representations, limiting adaptability and refinement - critical for tasks such as information-gathering. We present $\rho$POMCPOW, an anytime solver that dynamically refines belief representations, with formal guarantees of improvement over time. To mitigate the high computational cost of updating belief-dependent rewards, we propose a novel incremental computation approach. We demonstrate its effectiveness for common entropy estimators, reducing computational cost by orders of magnitude. Experimental results show that $\rho$POMCPOW outperforms state-of-the-art solvers in both efficiency and solution quality.

Geological carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), where CO$_2$ is stored in subsurface formations, is a promising and scalable approach for reducing global emissions. However, if done incorrectly, it may lead to earthquakes and leakage of CO$_2$ back to the surface, harming both humans and the environment. These risks are exacerbated by the large amount of uncertainty in the structure of the storage formation. For these reasons, we propose that CCS operations be modeled as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) and decisions be informed using automated planning algorithms. To this end, we develop a simplified model of CCS operations based on a 2D spillpoint analysis that retains many of the challenges and safety considerations of the real-world problem. We show how off-the-shelf POMDP solvers outperform expert baselines for safe CCS planning. This POMDP model can be used as a test bed to drive the development of novel decision-making algorithms for CCS operations.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) can effectively represent complex real-world decision and control problems. However, continuous space MDPs and POMDPs, i.e. those having continuous state, action and observation spaces, are extremely difficult to solve, and there are few online algorithms with convergence guarantees. This paper introduces Voronoi Progressive Widening (VPW), a general technique to modify tree search algorithms to effectively handle continuous or hybrid action spaces, and proposes and evaluates three continuous space solvers: VOSS, VOWSS, and VOMCPOW. VOSS and VOWSS are theoretical tools based on sparse sampling and Voronoi optimistic optimization designed to justify VPW-based online solvers. While previous algorithms have enjoyed convergence guarantees for problems with continuous state and observation spaces, VOWSS is the first with global convergence guarantees for problems that additionally have continuous action spaces. VOMCPOW is a versatile and efficient VPW-based algorithm that consistently outperforms POMCPOW and BOMCP in several simulation experiments.

Planning under partial obervability is essential for autonomous robots. A principled way to address such planning problems is the Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). Although solving POMDPs is computationally intractable, substantial advancements have been achieved in developing approximate POMDP solvers in the past two decades. However, computing robust solutions for problems with continuous observation spaces remains challenging. Most on-line solvers rely on discretising the observation space or artificially limiting the number of observations that are considered during planning to compute tractable policies. In this paper we propose a new on-line POMDP solver, called Lazy Belief Extraction for Continuous POMDPs (LABECOP), that combines methods from Monte-Carlo-Tree-Search and particle filtering to construct a policy reprentation which doesn't require discretised observation spaces and avoids limiting the number of observations considered during planning. Experiments on three different problems involving continuous observation spaces indicate that LABECOP performs similar or better than state-of-the-art POMDP solvers.

Online solvers for partially observable Markov decision processes have difficulty scaling to problems with large action spaces. Monte Carlo tree search with progressive widening attempts to improve scaling by sampling from the action space to construct a policy search tree. The performance of progressive widening search is dependent upon the action sampling policy, often requiring problem-specific samplers. In this work, we present a general method for efficient action sampling based on Bayesian optimization. The proposed method uses a Gaussian process to model a belief over the action-value function and selects the action that will maximize the expected improvement in the optimal action value. We implement the proposed approach in a new online tree search algorithm called Bayesian Optimized Monte Carlo Planning (BOMCP). Several experiments show that BOMCP is better able to scale to large action space POMDPs than existing state-of-the-art tree search solvers.

This work examines the hypothesis that partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) planning with human driver internal states can significantly improve both safety and efficiency in autonomous freeway driving. We evaluate this hypothesis in a simulated scenario where an autonomous car must safely perform three lane changes in rapid succession. Approximate POMDP solutions are obtained through the partially observable Monte Carlo planning with observation widening (POMCPOW) algorithm. This approach outperforms over-confident and conservative MDP baselines and matches or outperforms QMDP. Relative to the MDP baselines, POMCPOW typically cuts the rate of unsafe situations in half or increases the success rate by 50%.

Autonomous vehicles are quickly becoming an important part of human society for transportation, monitoring, agriculture, and other applications. In these applications, there is a fundamental tradeoff between safety and efficiency that is especially salient when the autonomous vehicles interact directly with humans. A key to maintaining safety without sacrificing efficiency is dealing with uncertainty properly so that robots can be assertive when it is appropriate and careful in dangerous situations. The research that will be presented in my thesis uses the partially observable Markov decision process framework to approach this challenge, exploring several applications and proposing a new solution approach that is able to handle continuous action and observation spaces, a qualitative improvement over current methods.

Online solvers for partially observable Markov decision processes have been applied to problems with large discrete state spaces, but continuous state, action, and observation spaces remain a challenge. This paper begins by investigating double progressive widening (DPW) as a solution to this challenge. However, we prove that this modification alone is not sufficient because the belief representations in the search tree collapse to a single particle causing the algorithm to converge to a policy that is suboptimal regardless of the computation time. The main contribution of the paper is to propose a new algorithm, POMCPOW, that incorporates DPW and weighted particle filtering to overcome this deficiency and attack continuous problems. Simulation results show that these modifications allow the algorithm to be successful where previous approaches fail.