Watermarking promises a statistical trace of large language model (LLM) use, but real documents, after editing or paraphrasing, rarely arrive as purely human-written or purely machine-generated. This motivates a quantitative question beyond detection: what proportion of a document is generated from a pre-specified watermarked LLM? We study this watermark proportion estimation problem under the Gumbel--max watermarking mechanism, treating the next-token prediction (NTP) distributions as unknown and arbitrary nuisance parameters subject to a non-degeneracy condition. We compare two observation regimes: in the full observation regime, the estimator observes the pseudorandom vector and the selected token at each position; under the more popular setting of pivotal reduction, it observes only a scalar pivot, which follows a one-dimensional Uniform--Beta mixture distribution. Under pivotal reduction, we develop a Laguerre-polynomial estimator and establish a matching information-theoretic lower bound for the sample complexity. For full observation, we introduce an event-counting estimator and show a matching lower bound, yielding a substantially smaller sample complexity. As our results imply, although reducing to pivotal statistics is an elegant and widely used procedure, it is not always sample-efficient for estimating the proportion of watermarks.

Normalizing Flows excel at modeling a single fixed density, yet many problems across the sciences, such as high energy physics, instead require modeling how that density deforms as a function of continuous parameters: the strength of a physical effect, a calibration constant, or a source of systematic uncertainty. Learning a separate flow for every parameter configuration quickly becomes intractable, since the number of joint settings grows exponentially with the number of parameters. We introduce Factorizable Normalizing Flows (FNFs), which represent the parameter-dependent density as a fixed, high-fidelity flow for a reference configuration composed with a learnable transformation that is polynomial in the parameters and factorized over them. This structure has a practical consequence: each parameter's effect is learned in isolation, from samples in which that parameter alone is varied. The combined response of many parameters is then recovered by summation at inference, without ever sampling their combinatorially large joint space. On a controlled problem with two interpretable deformations applied jointly to the data, the learned transformation reproduces the true deformations and matches the optimal likelihood, while optional interaction terms capture residual correlations when several parameters vary strongly at once. The resulting model is interpretable, scales linearly with the number of parameters, and keeps the likelihood tractable. This provides a general tool for any inference workflow requiring continuous density morphing, and directly enables the next generation of unbinned likelihood fits in high energy physics.

In this paper, we introduce a class of target functions (single and multi-index Gaussian hierarchical targets) that incorporate a hierarchy of latent subspace dimensionalities.

We present a family of conformal test martingales based on shifted Legendre polynomials, which extends the Simple Jumper martingale. The Simple Legendre Jumper substitutes the linear betting function with a polynomial of arbitrary degree, thereby facilitating the detection of variance, skewness, and higher-order deviations from uniformity; the standard Simple Jumper is a specific instance of degree one. The Product Legendre Jumper integrates multiple polynomial degrees into a unified betting function, although its state space expands exponentially--a cost we refer to as the jumping tax. To address this issue, we introduce the Variational Legendre Jumper, which factorises the joint adaptation through a mean-field approximation, thereby reducing exponential scaling to linear time with minimal loss in power. Lastly, the Composite Legendre Jumper incorporates several jumping rates, ensuring a wealth floor under exchangeability and automatic adaptation to the shift's timescale. Empirical results from a real-world classification task demonstrate that the combined methods consistently surpass any single-degree martingale under distributional shift, and the composite variant is recommended as the default when the shift timescale is unknown.

Inspired by recent work on learning with distribution shift, we give a general outlier removal algorithm called iterative polynomial filtering and show a number of striking applications for supervised learning with contamination: (1) We show that any function class that can be approximated by low-degree polynomials with respect to a hypercontractive distribution can be efficiently learned under bounded contamination (also known as nasty noise). This is a surprising resolution to a longstanding gap between the complexity of agnostic learning and learning with contamination, as it was widely believed that low-degree approximators only implied tolerance to label noise.

We study generalized smoothness in nonconvex optimization, focusing on (L0,L1)smoothness and anisotropic smoothness. The former was empirically derived from practical neural network training examples, while the latter arises naturally in the analysis of nonlinearly preconditioned gradient methods. We introduce a new sufficient condition that encompasses both notions, reveals their close connection, and holds in key applications such as phase retrieval and matrix factorization. Leveraging tools from dynamical systems theory, we then show that nonlinear preconditioning - including gradient clipping - preserves the saddle point avoidance property of classical gradient descent. Crucially, the assumptions required for this analysis are actually satisfied in these applications, unlike in classical results that rely on restrictive Lipschitz smoothness conditions. We further analyze a perturbed variant that efficiently attains second-order stationarity with only logarithmic dependence on dimension, matching similar guarantees of classical gradient methods.

The constant πhas fascinated scholars throughout the centuries, inspiring numerous formulas for its evaluation, such as infinite sums and continued fractions. Despite their individual significance, many of the underlying connections among formulas remain unknown, missing unifying theories that could unveil deeper understanding. The absence of a unifying theory reflects a broader challenge across math and science: knowledge is typically accumulated through isolated discoveries, while deeper connections often remain hidden. In this work, we present an automated framework for the unification of mathematical formulas. Our system combines large language models (LLMs) for systematic formula harvesting, an LLM-code feedback loop for validation, and a novel symbolic algorithm for clustering and eventual unification. We demonstrate this methodology on the hallmark case of π, an ideal testing ground for symbolic unification. Applying this approach to 455,050 arXiv papers, we validate 385 distinct formulas for π and prove relations between 360 (94%) of them, of which 166 (43%) can be derived from a single mathematical object--linking canonical formulas by Euler, Gauss, Brouncker, and newer ones from algorithmic discoveries by the Ramanujan Machine. Our method generalizes to other constants, including e, ζ(3), and Catalan's constant, demonstrating the potential of AI-assisted mathematics to uncover hidden structures and unify knowledge across domains.

Equivariant neural networks outperform traditional deep neural networks on a number of tasks. The theoretical understanding of their generalization properties remains, however, limited. In this paper, we analyze the generalization capabilities of Group Convolutional Neural Networks (GCNNs) with ReLU activation function through the lens of Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension theory. By deriving upper and lower bounds, we investigate how the network architecture affects the VC dimension.

We give an algorithm for learning O(logn)juntas in polynomial-time with respect to Markov Random Fields (MRFs) in a smoothed analysis framework where only the external field has been randomly perturbed. This is a broad generalization1 of the work of Kalai and Teng, who gave an algorithm that succeeded with respect to smoothed product distributions (i.e., MRFs whose dependency graph has no edges). Our algorithm has two phases: (1) an unsupervised structure learning phase and (2) a greedy supervised learning algorithm. This is the first example where algorithms for learning the structure of undirected graphical models have downstream applications to supervised learning.

We investigate refinements of the mean-payoff criterion in two-player zero-sum perfect-information stochastic games. A strategy is Blackwell optimal if it is optimal in the discounted game for all discount factors sufficiently close to 1.