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A three-step machine learning approach to predict market bubbles with financial news

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study presents a three-step machine learning framework to predict bubbles in the S&P 500 stock market by combining financial news sentiment with macroeconomic indicators. Building on traditional econometric approaches, the proposed approach predicts bubble formation by integrating textual and quantitative data sources. In the first step, bubble periods in the S&P 500 index are identified using a right-tailed unit root test, a widely recognized real-time bubble detection method. The second step extracts sentiment features from large-scale financial news articles using natural language processing (NLP) techniques, which capture investor's expectations and behavioral patterns. In the final step, ensemble learning methods are applied to predict bubble occurrences based on both sentiment-based and macroeconomic predictors. Model performance is evaluated through k-fold cross-validation and compared against benchmark machine learning algorithms. Empirical results indicate that the proposed three-step ensemble approach significantly improves predictive accuracy and robustness, providing valuable early warning insights for investors, regulators, and policymakers in mitigating systemic financial risks.


PABSA: Hybrid Framework for Persian Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sentiment analysis is a key task in Natural Language Processing (NLP), enabling the extraction of meaningful insights from user opinions across various domains. However, performing sentiment analysis in Persian remains challenging due to the scarcity of labeled datasets, limited preprocessing tools, and the lack of high-quality embeddings and feature extraction methods. To address these limitations, we propose a hybrid approach that integrates machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques for Persian aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA). In particular, we utilize polarity scores from multilingual BERT as additional features and incorporate them into a decision tree classifier, achieving an accuracy of 93.34%-surpassing existing benchmarks on the Pars-ABSA dataset. Additionally, we introduce a Persian synonym and entity dictionary, a novel linguistic resource that supports text augmentation through synonym and named entity replacement. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of hybrid modeling and feature augmentation in advancing sentiment analysis for low-resource languages such as Persian.


Analysis of Voluntarily Reported Data Post Mesh Implantation for Detecting Public Emotion and Identifying Concern Reports

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Mesh implants are widely utilized in hernia repair surgeries, but postoperative complications present a significant concern. This study analyzes patient reports from the Manufacturer and User Facility Device Experience (MAUDE) database spanning 2000 to 2021 to investigate the emotional aspects of patients following mesh implantation using Natural Language Processing (NLP). Employing the National Research Council Canada (NRC) Emotion Lexicon and TextBlob for sentiment analysis, the research categorizes patient narratives into eight emotions (anger, fear, anticipation, trust, surprise, sadness, joy, and disgust) and assesses sentiment polarity. The goal is to discern patterns in patient sentiment over time and to identify reports signaling urgent concerns, referred to as "Concern Reports," thereby understanding shifts in patient experiences in relation to changes in medical device regulation and technological advancements in healthcare. The study detected an increase in Concern Reports and higher emotional intensity during the periods of 2011-2012 and 2017-2018. Through temporal analysis of Concern Reports and overall sentiment, this research provides valuable insights for healthcare practitioners, enhancing their understanding of patient experiences post-surgery, which is critical for improving preoperative counselling, postoperative care, and preparing patients for mesh implant surgeries. The study underscores the importance of emotional considerations in medical practices and the potential for sentiment analysis to inform and enhance patient care.


Evaluating Compositional Approaches for Focus and Sentiment Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While quantitative evaluations of compositional and non-compositional approaches in SA exist in NLP, similar quantitative evaluations are very rare in FA in Linguistics that deal with linguistic expressions representing focus or emphasis such as "it was John who left". We fill this gap in research by arguing that compositional rules in SA also apply to FA because FA and SA are closely related meaning that SA is part of FA. Our compositional approach in SA exploits basic syntactic rules such as rules of modification, coordination, and negation represented in the formalism of Universal Dependencies (UDs) in English and applied to words representing sentiments from sentiment dictionaries. Some of the advantages of our compositional analysis method for SA in contrast to non-compositional analysis methods are interpretability and explainability. We test the accuracy of our compositional approach and compare it with a non-compositional approach VADER that uses simple heuristic rules to deal with negation, coordination and modification. In contrast to previous related work that evaluates compositionality in SA on long reviews, this study uses more appropriate datasets to evaluate compositionality. In addition, we generalize the results of compositional approaches in SA to compositional approaches in FA.


VIGNETTE: Socially Grounded Bias Evaluation for Vision-Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While bias in large language models (LLMs) is well-studied, similar concerns in vision-language models (VLMs) have received comparatively less attention. Existing VLM bias studies often focus on portrait-style images and gender-occupation associations, overlooking broader and more complex social stereotypes and their implied harm. This work introduces VIGNETTE, a large-scale VQA benchmark with 30M+ images for evaluating bias in VLMs through a question-answering framework spanning four directions: factuality, perception, stereotyping, and decision making. Beyond narrowly-centered studies, we assess how VLMs interpret identities in contextualized settings, revealing how models make trait and capability assumptions and exhibit patterns of discrimination. Drawing from social psychology, we examine how VLMs connect visual identity cues to trait and role-based inferences, encoding social hierarchies, through biased selections. Our findings uncover subtle, multifaceted, and surprising stereotypical patterns, offering insights into how VLMs construct social meaning from inputs.


HP-BERT: A framework for longitudinal study of Hinduphobia on social media via LLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

During the COVID-19 pandemic, community tensions intensified, fuelling Hinduphobic sentiments and discrimination against individuals of Hindu descent within India and worldwide. Large language models (LLMs) have become prominent in natural language processing (NLP) tasks and social media analysis, enabling longitudinal studies of platforms like X (formerly Twitter) for specific issues during COVID-19. We present an abuse detection and sentiment analysis framework that offers a longitudinal analysis of Hinduphobia on X (Twitter) during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This framework assesses the prevalence and intensity of Hinduphobic discourse, capturing elements such as derogatory jokes and racist remarks through sentiment analysis and abuse detection from pre-trained and fine-tuned LLMs. Additionally, we curate and publish a "Hinduphobic COVID-19 X (Twitter) Dataset" of 8,000 tweets annotated for Hinduphobic abuse detection, which is used to fine-tune a BERT model, resulting in the development of the Hinduphobic BERT (HP-BERT) model. We then further fine-tune HP-BERT using the SenWave dataset for multi-label sentiment analysis. Our study encompasses approximately 27.4 million tweets from six countries, including Australia, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Our findings reveal a strong correlation between spikes in COVID-19 cases and surges in Hinduphobic rhetoric, highlighting how political narratives, misinformation, and targeted jokes contributed to communal polarisation. These insights provide valuable guidance for developing strategies to mitigate communal tensions in future crises, both locally and globally. We advocate implementing automated monitoring and removal of such content on social media to curb divisive discourse.


LLM-SEM: A Sentiment-Based Student Engagement Metric Using LLMS for E-Learning Platforms

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current methods for analyzing student engagement in e-learning platforms, including automated systems, often struggle with challenges such as handling fuzzy sentiment in text comments and relying on limited metadata. Traditional approaches, such as surveys and questionnaires, also face issues like small sample sizes and scalability. In this paper, we introduce LLM-SEM (Language Model-Based Student Engagement Metric), a novel approach that leverages video metadata and sentiment analysis of student comments to measure engagement. By utilizing recent Large Language Models (LLMs), we generate high-quality sentiment predictions to mitigate text fuzziness and normalize key features such as views and likes. Our holistic method combines comprehensive metadata with sentiment polarity scores to gauge engagement at both the course and lesson levels. Extensive experiments were conducted to evaluate various LLM models, demonstrating the effectiveness of LLM-SEM in providing a scalable and accurate measure of student engagement. We fine-tuned TXLM-RoBERTa using human-annotated sentiment datasets to enhance prediction accuracy and utilized LLama 3B, and Gemma 9B from Ollama.


A longitudinal sentiment analysis of Sinophobia during COVID-19 using large language models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated xenophobia, particularly Sinophobia, leading to widespread discrimination against individuals of Chinese descent. Large language models (LLMs) are pre-trained deep learning models used for natural language processing (NLP) tasks. The ability of LLMs to understand and generate human-like text makes them particularly useful for analysing social media data to detect and evaluate sentiments. We present a sentiment analysis framework utilising LLMs for longitudinal sentiment analysis of the Sinophobic sentiments expressed in X (Twitter) during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show a significant correlation between the spikes in Sinophobic tweets, Sinophobic sentiments and surges in COVID-19 cases, revealing that the evolution of the pandemic influenced public sentiment and the prevalence of Sinophobic discourse. Furthermore, the sentiment analysis revealed a predominant presence of negative sentiments, such as annoyance and denial, which underscores the impact of political narratives and misinformation shaping public opinion. The lack of empathetic sentiment which was present in previous studies related to COVID-19 highlights the way the political narratives in media viewed the pandemic and how it blamed the Chinese community. Our study highlights the importance of transparent communication in mitigating xenophobic sentiments during global crises.


Polarity Calibration for Opinion Summarization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Opinion summarization is automatically generating summaries from a variety of subjective information, such as product reviews or political opinions. The challenge of opinions summarization lies in presenting divergent or even conflicting opinions. We conduct an analysis of previous summarization models, which reveals their inclination to amplify the polarity bias, emphasizing the majority opinions while ignoring the minority opinions. To address this issue and make the summarizer express both sides of opinions, we introduce the concept of polarity calibration, which aims to align the polarity of output summary with that of input text. Specifically, we develop a reinforcement training approach for polarity calibration. This approach feeds the polarity distance between output summary and input text as reward into the summarizer, and also balance polarity calibration with content preservation and language naturality. We evaluate our Polarity Calibration model (PoCa) on two types of opinions summarization tasks: summarizing product reviews and political opinions articles. Automatic and human evaluation demonstrate that our approach can mitigate the polarity mismatch between output summary and input text, as well as maintain the content semantic and language quality.


Experimenting with UD Adaptation of an Unsupervised Rule-based Approach for Sentiment Analysis of Mexican Tourist Texts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper summarizes the results of experimenting with Universal Dependencies (UD) adaptation of an Unsupervised, Compositional and Recursive (UCR) rule-based approach for Sentiment Analysis (SA) submitted to the Shared Task at Rest-Mex 2023 (Team Olga/LyS-SALSA) (within the IberLEF 2023 conference). By using basic syntactic rules such as rules of modification and negation applied on words from sentiment dictionaries, our approach exploits some advantages of an unsupervised method for SA: (1) interpretability and explainability of SA, (2) robustness across datasets, languages and domains and (3) usability by non-experts in NLP. We compare our approach with other unsupervised approaches of SA that in contrast to our UCR rule-based approach use simple heuristic rules to deal with negation and modification. Our results show a considerable improvement over these approaches. We discuss future improvements of our results by using modality features as another shifting rule of polarity and word disambiguation techniques to identify the right sentiment words.