State-space models (SSMs) are powerful probabilistic tools for modeling time-varying systems with latent dynamics. Inference in SSMs involves the estimation of latent states and parameters. In this work, we focus on parameter inference, which for SSMs is in general a very challenging problem due to the intractability of the likelihood. Recently, neural estimation methods, such as sequential neural likelihood (SNL), have shown promising results in Bayesian inference problems. In this paper, we show that SNL, when applied to the SSM setting, suffers important limitations, such as requiring a large amount of simulated samples to achieve a moderate performance, scaling poorly with sequence length, while not being amortized. We then introduce a novel inference algorithm called truncated-SNL (T-SNL), which addresses the limitations of SNL. Our algorithm is more accurate, more stable and robust during training, more scalable to longer temporal sequences, and can be amortized when new observations become available. Our experiments show that T-SNL is sample-efficient, robust, and flexible algorithm which outperforms other approaches.

While numerous works have focused on devising efficient algorithms for reinforcement learning (RL) with uniformly bounded rewards, it remains an open question whether sample or time-efficient algorithms for RL with large state-action space exist when the rewards are heavy-tailed, i.e., with only finite (1+ϵ)-th moments for some ϵ (0,1]. In this work, we address the challenge of such rewards in RL with linear function approximation.

While distributional reinforcement learning (DistRL) has been empirically effective, the question of when and why it is better than vanilla, non-distributional RL has remained unanswered. This paper explains the benefits of DistRL through the lens of small-loss bounds, which are instance-dependent bounds that scale with optimal achievable cost. Particularly, our bounds converge much faster than those from non-distributional approaches if the optimal cost is small. As warmup, we propose a distributional contextual bandit (DistCB) algorithm, which we show enjoys small-loss regret bounds and empirically outperforms the state-of-the-art on three real-world tasks. In online RL, we propose a DistRL algorithm that constructs confidence sets using maximum likelihood estimation. We prove that our algorithm enjoys novel small-loss PAC bounds in low-rank MDPs. As part of our analysis, we introduce the ℓ1 distributional eluder dimension which may be of independent interest. Then, in offline RL, we show that pessimistic DistRL enjoys small-loss PAC bounds that are novel to the offline setting and are more robust to bad single-policy coverage.

In this paper, we consider how to construct best-of-both-worlds linear bandit algorithms that achieve nearly optimal performance for both stochastic and adversarial environments. For this purpose, we show that a natural approach referred to as exploration by optimization [Lattimore and Szepesvári, 2020b] works well.

We provide the first global optimization landscape analysis of Neural Collapse-- an intriguing empirical phenomenon that arises in the last-layer classifiers and features of neural networks during the terminal phase of training. As recently reported in [1], this phenomenon implies that (i) the class means and the last-layer classifiers all collapse to the vertices of a Simplex Equiangular Tight Frame (ETF) up to scaling, and (ii) cross-example within-class variability of last-layer activations collapses to zero. We study the problem based on a simplified unconstrained feature model, which isolates the topmost layers from the classifier of the neural network. In this context, we show that the classical cross-entropy loss with weight decay has a benign global landscape, in the sense that the only global minimizers are the Simplex ETFs while all other critical points are strict saddles whose Hessian exhibit negative curvature directions. Our analysis of the simplified model not only explains what kind of features are learned in the last layer, but also shows why they can be efficiently optimized, matching the empirical observations in practical deep network architectures. These findings provide important practical implications. As an example, our experiments demonstrate that one may set the feature dimension equal to the number of classes and fix the last-layer classifier to be a Simplex ETF for network training, which reduces memory cost by over 20% on ResNet18 without sacrificing the generalization performance.