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Text Knows What, Tables Know When: Clinical Timeline Reconstruction via Retrieval-Augmented Multimodal Alignment

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Reconstructing precise clinical timelines is essential for modeling patient trajectories and forecasting risk in complex, heterogeneous conditions like sepsis. While unstructured clinical narratives offer semantically rich and contextually complete descriptions of a patient's course, they often lack temporal precision and contain ambiguous event timing. Conversely, structured electronic health record (EHR) data provides precise temporal anchors but misses a substantial portion of clinically meaningful events. We introduce a retrieval-augmented multimodal alignment framework that bridges this gap to improve the temporal precision of absolute clinical timelines extracted from text. Our approach formulates timeline reconstruction as a graph-based multistep process: it first extracts central anchor events from narratives to build an initial temporal scaffold, places non-central events relative to this backbone, and then calibrates the timeline using retrieved structured EHR rows as external temporal evidence. Evaluated using instruction-tuned large language models on the i2m4 benchmark spanning MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV, our multimodal pipeline consistently improves absolute timestamp accuracy (AULTC) and improves temporal concordance across nearly all evaluated models over unimodal text-only reconstruction, without compromising event match rates. Furthermore, our empirical gap analysis reveals that 34.8% of text-derived events are entirely absent from tabular records, demonstrating that aligning these modalities can produce a more temporally faithful and clinically informative reconstruction of patient trajectories than either source alone.


TopoFisher: Learning Topological Summary Statistics by Maximizing Fisher Information

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Persistence diagrams provide stable, interpretable summaries of geometric and topological structure and are useful for simulation-based inference when low-order statistics miss key information. Yet persistence-based pipelines require hand-chosen filtrations, vectorizations, and compressors, typically without an objective tied to parameter uncertainty. We introduce \textbf{TopoFisher}, a differentiable persistent-homology pipeline that learns topological summaries by maximizing local Gaussian Fisher information. Using simulations near a fiducial parameter, TopoFisher optimizes trainable filtrations, diagram vectorizations, and compressors without posterior samples or supervised regression targets, while retaining stable topological inductive bias. We also give sufficient regularity conditions for the log-determinant Fisher loss to be locally Lipschitz in trainable parameters. Controlled experiments on noisy spirals and Gaussian random fields, where total Fisher information is known, show that TopoFisher recovers much of the available information and outperforms fixed topological vectorizations. Our main results are on weak gravitational lensing, a high-dimensional non-Gaussian cosmological field-inference problem. Learned topological summaries reach higher Fisher information than state-of-the-art cosmological summaries and approach an unconstrained Information Maximising Neural Network baseline with up to $\sim80\times$ fewer parameters. The learned filtrations also generalize better: under simulator shift from lognormal to LPT-based maps it retains most Fisher information, while the neural baseline drops, and in neural posterior estimation they give tighter constraints than the neural baseline, and of state-of-the-art cosmological summaries. These results support Fisher-based topological optimization as a robust, parameter-efficient front end for simulation-based inference.


TinyBayes: Closed-Form Bayesian Inference via Jacobi Prior for Real-Time Image Classification on Edge Devices

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Cocoa (Theobroma cacao) is a critical cash crop for millions of smallholder farmers in West Africa, where Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSVD) and anthracnose cause devastating yield losses. Automated disease detection from leaf images is essential for early intervention, yet deploying such systems in resource-constrained settings demands models that are small, fast, and require no internet connectivity. Existing edge-deployable plant disease systems rely on end-to-end deep learning without uncertainty quantification, while Bayesian methods for edge devices focus on hardware-level inference architectures rather than agricultural applications. We bridge this gap with TinyBayes, the first framework to combine a closed-form Bayesian classifier with a mobile-grade computer vision pipeline for crop disease detection. Our pipeline uses YOLOv8-Nano (5.9 MB) for lesion localisation, MobileNetV3-Small (3.5 MB) for feature extraction, and the Jacobi prior; a Bayesian method that provides a closed form non-iterative estimators via projection, for the classification. The Jacobi-DMR (Distributed Multinomial Regression) classifier adds only 13.5 KB to the pipeline, bringing the total model size within 9.5 MB, while achieving 78.7% accuracy on the Amini Cocoa Contamination Challenge dataset and enabling end-to-end CPU inference under 150 ms per image. We benchmark against seven classifiers including Random Forest, SVM, Ridge, Lasso, Elastic Net, XGBoost, and Jacobi-GP, and demonstrate that the Jacobi-DMR offers the best trade-off between accuracy, model size, and inference speed for edge deployment. We have proved the asymptotic equivalence and consistency, asymptotic normality and the bias correction of Jacobi-DMR. All data and codes are available here: https://github.com/shouvik-sardar/TinyBayes


Persistent Homology of Time Series through Complex Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present a unified pipeline for univariate time series classification via complex networks and persistent homology. A time series is mapped to a graph through one of five constructions across three families--visibility (natural and horizontal visibility graphs), transition, and proximity--and the graph is converted to a dissimilarity matrix from which a Vietoris-Rips filtration yields persistence diagrams. These diagrams are vectorized into fixed-length features through persistence landscapes and topological summary statistics. By standardizing the downstream processing, differences in classification performance are attributable to the network construction and distance metric alone. Experiments on twelve UCR benchmarks show that (i) no single construction dominates: the optimal graph type depends on the signal's discriminative structure; (ii) the graph distance metric is a first-order design choice, with diffusion distance uniformly outperforming shortest-path alternatives; and (iii) persistence-based features degrade gracefully under noise, consistent with the classical stability theorem of persistent homology.


SPLICE: Latent Diffusion over JEPA Embeddings for Conformal Time-Series Inpainting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Generative models for time-series imputation achieve strong reconstruction accuracy, yet provide no finite-sample reliability guarantees, a critical limitation in power systems where imputed values inform dispatch and planning. We introduce SPLICE (Self-supervised Predictive Latent Inpainting with Conformal Envelopes), a modular framework coupling latent generative imputation with distribution-free, online-adaptive prediction intervals. A JEPA encoder maps daily load segments into a 64-dimensional latent space; a conditional latent bridge with four sampling modes generates candidate gap trajectories; an hourly-conditioned decoder maps back to signal space; and Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) wraps the output with coverage-guaranteed prediction bands. The flow-matching variant achieves comparable quality to DDIM in 5--10 ODE steps (5-10x speedup). On thirteen load datasets (nine proprietary, three UCI Electricity, ETTh1), SPLICE achieves the lowest mean Load-only MSE (0.056), winning 9/12 non-degenerate datasets at 91-day gaps and 18/32 across all gap lengths vs. five established baselines, and produces the best CRPS (0.161, -18.3% vs. the strongest competitor). ACI delivers 93--95% empirical coverage, correcting under-coverage failures of up to 7.5 pp observed with static conformal prediction. A pooled JEPA encoder trained on nine feeds transfers to four unseen domains, matching or exceeding per-dataset oracles with only a quick bridge fine-tuning.



Full-Distance Evasion of Pedestrian Detectors in the Physical World

Neural Information Processing Systems

Many studies have proposed attack methods to generate adversarial patterns for evading pedestrian detection, alarming the computer vision community about the need for more attention to the robustness of detectors. However, adversarial patterns optimized by these methods commonly have limited performance at medium to long distances in the physical world. To overcome this limitation, we identify two main challenges. First, in existing methods, there is commonly an appearance gap between simulated distant adversarial patterns and their physical world counterparts, leading to incorrect optimization. Second, there exists a conflict between adversarial losses at different distances, which causes difficulties in optimization. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a Full Distance Attack (FDA) method. Our physical world experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our FDA patterns across various detection models like YOLOv5, Deformable-DETR, and Mask RCNN.