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Bayesian Conservative Policy Optimization (BCPO): A Novel Uncertainty-Calibrated Offline Reinforcement Learning with Credible Lower Bounds

Chatterjee, Debashis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn decision policies from a fixed batch of logged transitions, without additional environment interaction. Despite remarkable empirical progress, offline RL remains fragile under distribution shifts: value-based methods can overestimate the value of unseen actions, yielding policies that exploit model errors rather than genuine long-term rewards. We propose \emph{Bayesian Conservative Policy Optimization (BCPO)}, a unified framework that converts epistemic uncertainty into \emph{provably conservative} policy improvement. BCPO maintains a hierarchical Bayesian posterior over environment/value models, constructs a \emph{credible lower bound} (LCB) on action values, and performs policy updates under explicit KL regularization toward the behavior distribution. This yields an uncertainty-calibrated analogue of conservative policy iteration in the offline regime. We provide a finite-MDP theory showing that the pessimistic fixed point lower-bounds the true value function with high probability and that KL-controlled updates improve a computable return lower bound. Empirically, we verify the methodology on a real offline replay dataset for the CartPole benchmark obtained via the \texttt{d3rlpy} ecosystem, and report diagnostics that link uncertainty growth and policy drift to offline instability, motivating principled early stopping and calibration









Pessimism for Offline Linear Contextual Bandits using \ell_p Confidence Sets

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a family $\{\widehat{\pi}_p\}_{p\ge 1}$ of pessimistic learning rules for offline learning of linear contextual bandits, relying on confidence sets with respect to different $\ell_p$ norms, where $\widehat{\pi}_2$ corresponds to Bellman-consistent pessimism (BCP), while $\widehat{\pi}_\infty$ is a novel generalization of lower confidence bound (LCB) to the linear setting. We show that the novel $\widehat{\pi}_\infty$ learning rule is, in a sense, adaptively optimal, as it achieves the minimax performance (up to log factors) against all $\ell_q$-constrained problems, and as such it strictly dominates all other predictors in the family, including $\widehat{\pi}_2$.


Bridging Offline Reinforcement Learning and Imitation Learning: A Tale of Pessimism

Neural Information Processing Systems

Offline (or batch) reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms seek to learn an optimal policy from a fixed dataset without active data collection. Based on the composition of the offline dataset, two main methods are used: imitation learning which is suitable for expert datasets, and vanilla offline RL which often requires uniform coverage datasets. From a practical standpoint, datasets often deviate from these two extremes and the exact data composition is usually unknown. To bridge this gap, we present a new offline RL framework that smoothly interpolates between the two extremes of data composition, hence unifying imitation learning and vanilla offline RL. The new framework is centered around a weak version of the concentrability coefficient that measures the deviation of the behavior policy from the expert policy alone.