Predictive Bayesian inference (PBI) represents a model-and prior-agnostic approach to standard Bayesian inference which allows users to quantify uncertainty for a functional of interest only by specifying a forward predictive model for future unobserved data. The flexibility and generality of this framework have led to a host of novel algorithms for implementing this approach, and many empirical applications, yet the reliability of the resulting inferences for the underlying statistical functional of interest remains unclear. Herein, we demonstrate that when using PBI for a population functional of interest, the resulting posterior concentrates onto a well-defined quantity that explicitly depends on the forward predictive model used to implement the predictive recursion underlying the method. Furthermore, the forward predictive model entirely determines the uncertainty quantification produced in PBI. Consequently, our results show that if the predictive model does not capture all relevant features of the data, and, even in very simple examples, the coverage of predictive Bayes credible sets for the population value of the functional of interest can be arbitrarily close to zero. We carefully explain why this occurs, and show that this behavior is directly tied to the inaccuracy of the forward predictive model used to produce future observations within the PBI framework. As a consequence, our results imply that in order for PBI to deliver calibrated posterior inferences, the resulting predictive engine used to generate posterior samples must contain, in a well-defined sense, the true DGP, else inferences generated under this framework will not be calibrated.

In recent years, the rise of machine learning (ML) in cybersecurity has brought new challenges, including the increasing threat of backdoor poisoning attacks on ML malware classifiers. For instance, adversaries could inject malicious samples into public malware repositories, contaminating the training data and potentially misclassifying malware by the ML model. Current countermeasures predominantly focus on detecting poisoned samples by leveraging disagreements within the outputs of a diverse set of ensemble models on training data points. However, these methods are not suitable for scenarios where Machine Learning-as-a-Service (MLaaS) is used or when users aim to remove backdoors from a model after it has been trained. Addressing this scenario, we introduce PBP, a post-training defense for malware classifiers that mitigates various types of backdoor embeddings without assuming any specific backdoor embedding mechanism. Our method exploits the influence of backdoor attacks on the activation distribution of neural networks, independent of the trigger-embedding method. In the presence of a backdoor attack, the activation distribution of each layer is distorted into a mixture of distributions. By regulating the statistics of the batch normalization layers, we can guide a backdoored model to perform similarly to a clean one. Our method demonstrates substantial advantages over several state-of-the-art methods, as evidenced by experiments on two datasets, two types of backdoor methods, and various attack configurations. Notably, our approach requires only a small portion of the training data -- only 1\% -- to purify the backdoor and reduce the attack success rate from 100\% to almost 0\%, a 100-fold improvement over the baseline methods. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/judydnguyen/pbp-backdoor-purification-official}.

Concealing an intermediate point on a route or visible from a route is an important goal in some transportation and surveillance scenarios. This paper studies the Transit Obfuscation Problem, the problem of traveling from some start location to an end location while "covering" a specific transit point that needs to be concealed from adversaries. We propose the notion of transit anonymity, a quantitative guarantee of the anonymity of a specific transit point, even with a powerful adversary with full knowledge of the path planning algorithm. We propose and evaluate planning/search algorithms that satisfy this anonymity criterion.

Wouldn't it be great if a medical diagnosis could be automated with machine learning and artificial intelligence? Skip waiting days or weeks for an appointment, then being asked questions with looking and poking. Just go online, get the questions from an AI, and then get a physical appointment if warranted. From cancelled conferences to disrupted supply chains, not a corner of the global economy is immune to the spread of COVID-19. But like all ML/AI apps, models need training.

Automated planning is a branch of AI that addresses the problem of generating a set of actions to achieve a specified goal state, given an initial state of the world. It is an active area of research that is central to the development of intelligent agents and au - tonomous robots. In many real-world applications, a multitude of valid plans exist, and a user distinguishes plans of high quality by how well they adhere to the user's preferences. To generate such high-quality plans automatically, a planning system must provide a means of specifying the user's preferences with respect to the planning task, as well as a means of generating plans that ideally optimize these preferences. In the last few years, there has been significant research in the area of planning with preferences.

Buoyed by the success of deep multilayer neural networks, there is renewed interest in scalable learning of Bayesian neural networks. Here, we study algorithms that utilize recent advances in Bayesian inference to efficiently learn distributions over network weights. In particular, we focus on recently proposed assumed density filtering based methods for learning Bayesian neural networks -- Expectation and Probabilistic backpropagation. Apart from scaling to large datasets, these techniques seamlessly deal with non-differentiable activation functions and provide parameter (learning rate, momentum) free learning. In this paper, we first rigorously compare the two algorithms and in the process develop several extensions, including a version of EBP for continuous regression problems and a PBP variant for binary classification. Next, we extend both algorithms to deal with multiclass classification and count regression problems. On a variety of diverse real world benchmarks, we find our extensions to be effective, achieving results competitive with the state-of-the-art.

Large multilayer neural networks trained with backpropagation have recently achieved state-of-the-art results in a wide range of problems. However, using backprop for neural net learning still has some disadvantages, e.g., having to tune a large number of hyperparameters to the data, lack of calibrated probabilistic predictions, and a tendency to overfit the training data. In principle, the Bayesian approach to learning neural networks does not have these problems. However, existing Bayesian techniques lack scalability to large dataset and network sizes. In this work we present a novel scalable method for learning Bayesian neural networks, called probabilistic backpropagation (PBP). Similar to classical backpropagation, PBP works by computing a forward propagation of probabilities through the network and then doing a backward computation of gradients. A series of experiments on ten real-world datasets show that PBP is significantly faster than other techniques, while offering competitive predictive abilities. Our experiments also show that PBP provides accurate estimates of the posterior variance on the network weights.

In the field of domain-independent planning, several powerful planners implementing different techniques have been developed. However, no one of these systems outperforms all others in every known benchmark domain. In this work, we propose a multi-planner approach that automatically configures a portfolio of planning techniques for each given domain. The configuration process for a given domain uses a set of training instances to: (i) compute and analyze some alternative sets of macro-actions for each planner in the portfolio identifying a (possibly empty) useful set, (ii) select a cluster of planners, each one with the identified useful set of macro-actions, that is expected to perform best, and (iii) derive some additional information for configuring the execution scheduling of the selected planners at planning time. The resulting planning system, called PbP (Portfolio- based Planner), has two variants focusing on speed and plan quality. Different versions of PbP entered and won the learning track of the sixth and seventh International Planning Competitions. In this paper, we experimentally analyze PbP considering planning speed and plan quality in depth. We provide a collection of results that help to understand PbPs behavior, and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach to configuring a portfolio of planners with macro-actions.

Since the development of loopy belief propagation, there has been considerable work on advancing the state of the art for approximate inference over distributions defined on discrete random variables. Improvements include guarantees of convergence, approximations that are provably more accurate, and bounds on the results of exact inference. However, extending these methods to continuous-valued systems has lagged behind. While several methods have been developed to use belief propagation on systems with continuous values, they have not as yet incorporated the recent advances for discrete variables. In this context we extend a recently proposed particle-based belief propagation algorithm to provide a general framework for adapting discrete message-passing algorithms to perform inference in continuous systems. The resulting algorithms behave similarly to their purely discrete counterparts, extending the benefits of these more advanced inference techniques to the continuous domain.

The field of automated plan generation has recently significantly advanced. However, while several powerful domainindependent PbP has two variants: PbP.s focusing on speed, and planners have been developed, no one of these PbP.q focusing on plan quality. PbP.s entered the learning clearly outperforms all the others in every known benchmark track of the sixth international planning competition (IPC6), domain. It would then be useful to have a multi-planner system and was the overall winner of this competition track (Fern, that automatically selects and combines the most efficient Khardon and Tadepalli 2008). The paper includes some experimental planner(s) for each given domain.