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Financial Management System for SMEs: Real-World Deployment of Accounts Receivable and Cash Flow Prediction

Małkus, Bartłomiej, Bobek, Szymon, Nalepa, Grzegorz J.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), particularly freelancers and early-stage businesses, face unique financial management challenges due to limited resources, small customer bases, and constrained data availability. This paper presents the development and deployment of an integrated financial prediction system that combines accounts receivable prediction and cash flow forecasting specifically designed for SME operational constraints. Our system addresses the gap between enterprise-focused financial tools and the practical needs of freelancers and small businesses. The solution integrates two key components: a binary classification model for predicting invoice payment delays, and a multi-module cash flow forecasting model that handles incomplete and limited historical data. A prototype system has been implemented and deployed as a web application with integration into Cluee's platform, a startup providing financial management tools for freelancers, demonstrating practical feasibility for real-world SME financial management.


Dynamic Lagging for Time-Series Forecasting in E-Commerce Finance: Mitigating Information Loss with A Hybrid ML Architecture

Sharma, Abhishek, Parush, Anat, Wadhwa, Sumit, Savir, Amihai, Guinard, Anne, Srivastava, Prateek

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate forecasting in the e-commerce finance domain is particularly challenging due to irregular invoice schedules, payment deferrals, and user-specific behavioral variability. These factors, combined with sparse datasets and short historical windows, limit the effectiveness of conventional time-series methods. While deep learning and Transformer-based models have shown promise in other domains, their performance deteriorates under partial observability and limited historical data. To address these challenges, we propose a hybrid forecasting framework that integrates dynamic lagged feature engineering and adaptive rolling-window representations with classical statistical models and ensemble learners. Our approach explicitly incorporates invoice-level behavioral modeling, structured lag of support data, and custom stability-aware loss functions, enabling robust forecasts in sparse and irregular financial settings. Empirical results demonstrate an approximate 5% reduction in MAPE compared to baseline models, translating into substantial financial savings. Furthermore, the framework enhances forecast stability over quarterly horizons and strengthens feature target correlation by capturing both short- and long-term patterns, leveraging user profile attributes, and simulating upcoming invoice behaviors. These findings underscore the value of combining structured lagging, invoice-level closure modeling, and behavioral insights to advance predictive accuracy in sparse financial time-series forecasting.


Artificial intelligence in consumer banking AI Genpact

#artificialintelligence

Grow revenue For decades, banks have used customer data, such as income, credit scores, and spending patterns to promote, cross-sell, and up-sell their products to grow revenue. But today's technologies allow banks to access more data and grow revenue in new ways. Consider the banking journey of a millennial customer whose onboarding point to a bank was a college loan six years ago. Since then, his comfort with all things digital has increased, and his banking needs have evolved. The bank has kept tabs on his credit behavior through traditional databases and his monthly credit score.


Artificial Intelligence in Financial Analytics

#artificialintelligence

Successful businesses care for extensive cash flow planning. Being aligned with your payment terms for payables and receivables, or planning your cash needs for the next quarter or year is not a minor task. Many finance teams that we talked to had the data to make it right, but there was some hiccup which hampered end results. What is cash flow forecast? Cash flow forecast has traditionally been performed based on experience and intuition, in an excel environment.


Predicting Payment Behavior in PAYGo: Machine Learning Can Power Customer Retention

#artificialintelligence

Customer churn is a major headache for most companies and threatens to put the brakes on the red-hot growth of the pay-as-you-go (PAYGo) solar sector. With over 1 million units sold in the last 5 years and over 50,000 units installed each month, the PAYGo model makes solar affordable for end-users and provides sufficient margin for providers to scale last-mile distribution. However, for the model to succeed PAYGo operators must retain customers and build a base of loyal and engaged customers. Our project with Zola Electric (formerly Off Grid Electric) demonstrates that machine learning can help them do so. PAYGo operators make money from installments and/or fees as end-consumers pay off solar assets over 1 to 3 years.