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Evolving and Detecting Multi-Turn Deception using Geometric Signatures

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Safety defenses for large language models (LLMs) are typically trained and evaluated on single-turn prompts, yet real attacks often unfold as indirect, multi-turn probing. To defend against this more nuanced form of deception, we present a unified pipeline that generates realistic multi-turn deceptive question sets via multi-objective genetic prompt optimization with co-evolving mutation operators. We validate this dataset through a human study, which also revealed that early generations yielded the most convincing deception and practical constraints such as adherence filtering and ordering effects. Using this data, we were able to detect deceptive attempts to access prohibited information using simple, explainable geometric signals in embedding space coupled with a lightweight feed-forward classifier. Three geometric features (angular coverage, distance ratio, and linearity) augmented with pairwise similarity statistics led to a compact predictive model that achieved consistently high recall (0.89) across base, reworded, and truncated (three-turn) scenarios, with test-time F1 ranging from 0.74-0.86. The results support a central hypothesis that multi-turn deceptive intent leaves a stable geometric footprint that enables lightweight, transparent screening without expensive end-to-end training. We further discuss responsible uses, limitations, and paths toward larger, more diverse human-evaluated datasets. The primary contribution to artificial intelligence is the multi-objective evolutionary framework for prompt generation, and the engineering application is the deployment of a lightweight geometric detection system for LLM safety infrastructure.


You probably wouldn't notice if an AI chatbot slipped ads into its responses

AIHub

You probably wouldn't notice if an AI chatbot slipped ads into its responses Hundreds of millions of people consult artificial intelligence chatbots on a daily basis for everything from product recommendations to romance, making them a tempting audience to target with potentially below-the-radar advertising. Indeed, our research suggests AI chatbots could easily be used for covert advertising to manipulate their human users. We are computer scientists who have been tracking AI safety and privacy for several years. In a study we published in an Association for Computing Machinery journal, we found that chatbots trained to embed personalized product ads in replies to queries influenced people's choices about products. And most participants didn't recognize that they were being manipulated.


Targeted maximum likelihood estimation of vaccine effectiveness and immune correlates in test-negative design studies with missing data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The test-negative design (TND) is a resource-efficient observational study design that can assess vaccine effectiveness and exposure-proximal immune correlates of disease. The TND enrolls symptomatic individuals seeking diagnostic testing and compares case status by an exposure variable, such as vaccination status or immune marker level, that is measured at testing. While the TND reduces confounding by healthcare-seeking behavior, other sources of confounding may remain. TND studies may also have missing data in the exposure variable due to incomplete records or two-phase sampling designs. We present a targeted maximum likelihood estimation approach involving a semiparametric logistic regression model that targets a causal conditional risk ratio of symptomatic disease in the healthcare-seeking population. Under causal and missing at random assumptions, our method produces an efficient, asymptotically linear estimator that provides flexible, data-driven confounding control and valid causal inference when analyzing TND studies with missing exposure variable data. We evaluate our method's finite sample properties using plasmode simulations of a two-phase TND immune correlates study. We also apply our method to assess COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness and antibody marker correlates of COVID-19 from TND study cohorts derived from the Moderna Coronavirus Efficacy phase 3 trial.


Precision Physical Activity Prescription via Reinforcement Learning for Functional Actions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Physical activity (PA) plays an important role in maintaining and improving health. Daily steps have been a key PA measure that is easily accessible with common wearable devices. However, methods are lacking to recommend a personalized optimal distribution of daily steps over a period of time for the best of certain health biomarkers. In this paper, we fill this void based on the data from the All of Us Research Program which includes months of step counts as well as repeated measurements of key health biomarkers. We develop a new offline reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm to learn personalized and optimal PA distributions associated with cardiometabolic risk, where the action is a function representing the daily step distribution over a period of time. Simulation studies demonstrate the advantage of the proposed approach over existing continuous-action RL methods. The learned optimal policy from the All of Us data generally suggests people take more daily steps and also follow a more consistent pattern of PA over time while offering tailored recommendations for subgroups in blood glucose level, body mass index, blood pressure, age, and sex.


Forecasting Medium-Horizon Alzheimer's Disease Progression: Residual Gap-Aware Transformers for 24-Month CDR-SB Change from ADNI Clinical and Biomarker Histories

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Medium-horizon Alzheimer's disease progression prediction is difficult because future clinical scores can remain tied to baseline severity, while biomarker histories are irregular and incompletely observed. We develop an anchor-based analysis of 24-month Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) change using harmonized Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) tables. Each labeled sample is anchored at a mild cognitive impairment visit, uses only clinical and biomarker history observed at or before that anchor, and defines the response as CDR-SB at the future visit closest to 24 months within an 18--30 month window minus anchor CDR-SB. The analytic cohort contains 2,600 labeled anchors from 858 participants and 7,276 longitudinal rows. We propose a residual gap-aware transformer that combines a mixed-effects statistical reference with transformer-based residual learning from pre-anchor clinical and biomarker histories. The model uses participant-level random intercepts in the mixed-effects reference, observation-level triplet tokenization for irregular histories, and a learned nonnegative time-gap penalty inside self-attention. We compare the proposed model with a Bayesian-information-criterion-selected linear mixed-effects baseline, GRU-D, and STraTS under repeated participant-level train--test splits. Across five participant-level random seeds, the proposed model achieves the best mean test performance across all reported metrics, reducing MSE by 13.1% and increasing prediction--observation correlation by 26.4% relative to the mixed-effects baseline. It also improves over both GRU-D and STraTS in mean error and correlation. These results show that statistical anchoring and gap-aware residual learning provide a useful structure for medium-horizon Alzheimer's disease progression prediction.


An Elastic Shape Variational Autoencoder for Skeleton Pose Trajectories

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Deep generative models provide flexible frameworks for modeling complex, structured data such as images, videos, 3D objects, and texts. However, when applied to sequences of human skeletons, standard variational autoencoders (VAEs) often allocate substantial capacity to nuisance factors-such as camera orientation, subject scale, viewpoint, and execution speed-rather than the intrinsic geometry of shapes and their motion. We propose the Elastic Shape - Variational Autoencoder (ES-VAE), a geometry-aware generative model for skeletal trajectories that leverages the transported square-root velocity field (TSRVF) representation on Kendall's shape manifold. This representation inherently removes rigid translations, rotations, and global scaling of shapes, and temporal rate variability of sequences, isolating the underlying shape dynamics. The ES-VAE encoder maps skeletal sequences to a low-dimensional latent space incorporating the Riemannian logarithm map, while the decoder reconstructs sequences using the corresponding exponential map. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ES-VAE on two datasets. First, we analyze skeletal gait cycles to predict clinical mobility scores and classify subjects into healthy and post-stroke groups. Second, we evaluate action recognition on the NTU RGB+D dataset. Across both settings, ES-VAE consistently outperforms standard VAEs and a range of sequence modeling baselines, including temporal convolutional networks, transformers, and graph convolutional networks. More broadly, ES-VAE provides a principled framework for learning generative models of longitudinal data on pose shape manifolds, offering improved latent representation and downstream performance compared to existing deep learning approaches.


Gen Z Is Pioneering a New Understanding of Truth

WIRED

The danger is no longer just misinformation. Thanks to AI, it's now possible to manufacture fake realities at scale. Deepfake videos, cloned voices, and bogus news stories are dissolving the line between what's real and what's not faster than society can adapt.