In this interview series, we're meeting some of the AAAI/SIGAI Doctoral Consortium participants to find out more about their research. We hear from Xinwei Song about the two main research threads she's worked on so far, plans to expand her investigations, and what inspired her to study AI. Could you start with a quick introduction - where are you studying, and what is the topic of your research? My research primarily focuses on strategic interactions in networked multi-agent systems. Could you give us an overview of the research you've carried out so far during your PhD? My research to date consists of two main threads, which complement each other in exploring strategic interactions from different perspectives.

Converting betting odds into accurate outcome probabilities is a fundamental challenge in order to use betting odds as a benchmark for sports forecasting and market efficiency analysis. In this study, we propose two methods to overcome the limitations of existing conversion methods. Firstly, we propose an odds-only method to convert betting odds to probabilities without using historical data for model fitting. While existing odds-only methods, such as Multiplicative, Shin, and Power exist, they do not adjust for biases or relationships we found in our betting odds dataset, which consists of 90014 football matches across five different bookmakers. To overcome these limitations, our proposed Odds-Only-Equal-Profitability-Confidence (OO-EPC) method aligns with the bookmakers' pricing objectives of having equal confidence in profitability for each outcome. We provide empirical evidence from our betting odds dataset that, for the majority of bookmakers, our proposed OO-EPC method outperforms the existing odds-only methods. Beyond controlled experiments, we applied the OO-EPC method under real-world uncertainty by using it for six iterations of an annual basketball outcome forecasting competition. Secondly, we propose a generalised linear model that utilises historical data for model fitting and then converts betting odds to probabilities. Existing generalised linear models attempt to capture relationships that the Efficient Market Hypothesis already captures. To overcome this shortcoming, our proposed Favourite-Longshot-Bias-Adjusted Generalised Linear Model (FL-GLM) fits just one parameter to capture the favourite-longshot bias, providing a more interpretable alternative. We provide empirical evidence from historical football matches where, for all bookmakers, our proposed FL-GLM outperforms the existing multinomial and logistic generalised linear models.

Technology AI Robots can't replace guide dogs Man's best friend shares an'invisible care world' with humans that AI can't beat--yet. More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. Guide dogs are highly trained and can help people with vision loss navigate the world, open doors, and more. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. On paper, few physical jobs seem as ripe for AI takeover as that of the loyal service dog .

Machine learning competitions (MLCs) play a pivotal role in advancing artificial intelligence (AI) by fostering innovation, skill development, and practical problem-solving. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of major competition platforms such as Kaggle and Zindi, examining their workflows, evaluation methodologies, and reward structures. It further assesses competition quality, participant expertise, and global reach, with particular attention to demographic trends among top-performing competitors. By exploring the motivations of competition hosts, this paper underscores the significant role of MLCs in shaping AI development, promoting collaboration, and driving impactful technological progress. Furthermore, by combining literature synthesis with platform-level data analysis and practitioner insights a comprehensive understanding of the MLC ecosystem is provided. Moreover, the paper demonstrates that MLCs function at the intersection of academic research and industrial application, fostering the exchange of knowledge, data, and practical methodologies across domains. Their strong ties to open-source communities further promote collaboration, reproducibility, and continuous innovation within the broader ML ecosystem. By shaping research priorities, informing industry standards, and enabling large-scale crowdsourced problem-solving, these competitions play a key role in the ongoing evolution of AI. The study provides insights relevant to researchers, practitioners, and competition organizers, and includes an examination of the future trajectory and sustained influence of MLCs on AI development.

Causal mediation analysis provides techniques for defining and estimating effects that may be endowed with mechanistic interpretations. With many scientific investigations seeking to address mechanistic questions, causal direct and indirect effects have garnered much attention. The natural direct and indirect effects, the most widely used among such causal mediation estimands, are limited in their practical utility due to stringent identification requirements. Accordingly, considerable effort has been invested in developing alternative direct and indirect effect decompositions with relaxed identification requirements. Such efforts often yield effect definitions with nuanced and challenging interpretations. By contrast, relatively limited attention has been paid to relaxing the identification assumptions of the natural direct and indirect effects. Motivated by a secondary aim of a recent non-randomized vaccine prospective cohort study (NCT05168813), we present a set of relaxed conditions under which the natural direct effect is identifiable in spite of unobserved baseline confounding of the exposure-mediator pathway; we use this result to investigate the effect mediated by putative immune correlates of protection. Relaxing the commonly used but restrictive cross-world counterfactual independence assumption, we discuss strategies for evaluating the natural direct effect in non-randomized settings that arise in the analysis of vaccine studies. We revisit prior studies of semi-parametric efficiency theory to demonstrate the construction of flexible, multiply robust estimators of the natural direct effect and discuss efficient estimation strategies that do not place restrictive modeling assumptions on nuisance functions.

Understanding how biomarker distributions evolve over time is a central challenge in digital health and chronic disease monitoring. In diabetes, changes in the distribution of glucose measurements can reveal patterns of disease progression and treatment response that conventional summary measures miss. Motivated by a 26-week clinical trial comparing the closed-loop insulin delivery system t:slim X2 with standard therapy in children with type 1 diabetes, we propose a probabilistic framework to model the continuous-time evolution of time-indexed distributions using continuous glucose monitoring data (CGM) collected every five minutes. We represent the glucose distribution as a Gaussian mixture, with time-varying mixture weights governed by a neural ODE. We estimate the model parameter using a distribution-matching criterion based on the maximum mean discrepancy. The resulting framework is interpretable, computationally efficient, and sensitive to subtle temporal distributional changes. Applied to CGM trial data, the method detects treatment-related improvements in glucose dynamics that are difficult to capture with traditional analytical approaches.

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Objective. We establish a principled method for inferring mental health related psychometric variables from neural and behavioral data using the Implicit Association Test (IAT) as the data generation engine, aiming to overcome the limited predictive performance (typically under 0.7 AUC) of the gold-standard D-score method, which relies solely on reaction times. Approach. We propose a sparse hierarchical Bayesian model that leverages multi-modal data to predict experiences related to mental illness symptoms in new participants. The model is a multivariate generalization of the D-score with trainable parameters, engineered for parameter efficiency in the small-cohort regime typical of IAT studies. Data from two IAT variants were analyzed: a suicidality-related E-IAT ($n=39$) and a psychosis-related PSY-IAT ($n=34$). Main Results. Our approach overcomes a high inter-individual variability and low within-session effect size in the dataset, reaching AUCs of 0.73 (E-IAT) and 0.76 (PSY-IAT) in the best modality configurations, though corrected 95% confidence intervals are wide ($\pm 0.18$) and results are marginally significant after FDR correction ($q=0.10$). Restricting the E-IAT to MDD participants improves AUC to 0.79 $[0.62, 0.97]$ (significant at $q=0.05$). Performance is on par with the best reference methods (shrinkage LDA and EEGNet) for each task, even when the latter were adapted to the task, while the proposed method was not. Accuracy was substantially above near-chance D-scores (0.50-0.53 AUC) in both tasks, with more consistent cross-task performance than any single reference method. Significance. Our framework shows promise for enhancing IAT-based assessment of experiences related to entrapment and psychosis, and potentially other mental health conditions, though further validation on larger and independent cohorts will be needed to establish clinical utility.

Predicting the behavior of human participants in strategic settings is an important problem in many domains. Most existing work either assumes that participants are perfectly rational, or attempts to directly model each participant's cognitive processes based on insights from cognitive psychology and experimental economics. In this work, we present an alternative, a deep learning approach that automatically performs cognitive modeling without relying on such expert knowledge. We introduce a novel architecture that allows a single network to generalize across different input and output dimensions by using matrix units rather than scalar units, and show that its performance significantly outperforms that of the previous state of the art, which relies on expert-constructed features.

Collecting multiple types of data on the same set of subjects is common in modern scientific applications including, genomics, metabolomics, and neuroimaging. Joint and Individual Variance Explained (JIVE) seeks a low-rank approximation of the joint variation between two or more sets of features captured on common subjects and isolates this variation from that unique to eachset of features. We develop an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate a probabilistic model for the JIVE framework. The model extends probabilistic principal components analysis to multiple data sets. Our maximum likelihood approach simultaneously estimates joint and individual components, which can lead to greater accuracy compared to other methods. We apply ProJIVE to measures of brain morphometry and cognition in Alzheimer's disease. ProJIVE learns biologically meaningful courses of variation, and the joint morphometry and cognition subject scores are strongly related to more expensive existing biomarkers. Data used in preparation of this article were obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database. Code to reproduce the analysis is available on our GitHub page.