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A mysterious super PAC that doubles as a pro-solar energy outfit is funding some of the most knives-out attack ads of the midterms season. A mysteriously named political action committee has started running ads reminding voters in Colorado about that time GOP representative Lauren Boebert of Colorado and her date were caught on camera in 2023 getting handsy during a performance of the musical Beetlejuice . That same PAC is producing a spot hitting Anthony Constantino, a Trumpist congressional candidate in upstate New York, because someone used his sticker-printing company to briefly make stickers that read, " Kill the Police ." Attack ads are everywhere in the last month ahead of November's election. But these spots are a little different.

Backed by Silicon Valley titans, Leading the Future has raised huge sums to promote pro-AI candidates on both side of the aisle. The Spanish Springs shopping center in Sparks, Nevada, hosts many businesses, including a Spirit Halloween, a hearing aid supplier, and a Vietnamese restaurant. It's also home to a consulting agency that's received millions of dollars from one of the biggest pro-AI super PAC networks ahead of November's midterm elections . The problem is that the company--Lantern Production Consultants LLC--doesn't seem to exist anywhere beyond a post office box in the Spanish Springs shopping complex. Lantern Production Consultants has been paid around $20 million since last year by Think Big, part of a network of pro-AI super PACs funded by the Leading the Future PAC, for a wide array of services, including polling, digital advertising, research, and strategy, according to federal campaign finance records reviewed by WIRED.

A central question in the theory of machine learning concerns the identification of classes of data distributions for which one can provide computationally efficient learning algorithms with provable statistical learning guarantees. Indeed, in the context of probably approximately correct (PAC) learning, there has been much interest in exploring intermediate PAC learning models that, unlike the realizable PAC learning setting, allow for some stochasticity in the labels, and unlike the fully agnostic PAC learning setting, also admit computationally efficient learning algorithms with finite sample complexity bounds. Some examples of such models include random classification noise (RCN), probabilistic concepts, Massart noise, and generalized linear models (GLMs); in general, most of this work has focused on binary classification problems. In this paper, we study what we call realizablestatistic models (RSMs), wherein we allow stochastic labels but assume that some vector-valued statistic of the conditional label distribution comes from some known function class. RSMs are a flexible class of models that interpolate between the realizable and fully agnostic settings, and that also recover several previously studied models as special cases.

A central question in the theory of machine learning concerns the identification of classes of data distributions for which one can provide computationally efficient learning algorithms with provable statistical learning guarantees. Indeed, in the context of probably approximately correct (PAC) learning, there has been much interest in exploring intermediate PAC learning models that, unlike the realizable PAC learning setting, allow for some stochasticity in the labels, and unlike the fully agnostic PAC learning setting, also admit computationally efficient learning algorithms with finite sample complexity bounds. Some examples of such models include random classification noise (RCN), probabilistic concepts, Massart noise, and generalized linear models (GLMs); in general, most of this work has focused on binary classification problems. In this paper, we study what we call realizable-statistic models (RSMs), wherein we allow stochastic labels but assume that some vector-valued statistic of the conditional label distribution comes from some known function class. RSMs are a flexible class of models that interpolate between the realizable and fully agnostic settings, and that also recover several previously studied models as special cases.

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has witnessed significant progress with the development of value function factorization methods. It allows optimizing a joint action-value function through the maximization of factorized per-agent utilities. In this paper, we show that in partially observable MARL problems, an agent's ordering over its own actions could impose concurrent constraints (across different states) on the representable function class, causing significant estimation errors during training. We tackle this limitation and propose PAC, a new framework leveraging Assistive information generated from Counterfactual Predictions of optimal joint action selection, which enable explicit assistance to value function factorization through a novel counterfactual loss. A variational inference-based information encoding method is developed to collect and encode the counterfactual predictions from an estimated baseline. To enable decentralized execution, we also derive factorized per-agent policies inspired by a maximum-entropy MARL framework. We evaluate the proposed PAC on multi-agent predator-prey and a set of StarCraft II micromanagement tasks. Empirical results demonstrate improved results of PAC over state-of-the-art value-based and policy-based multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms on all benchmarks.

We study a generalization of boosting to the multiclass setting. We introduce a weak learning condition for multiclass classification that captures the original notion of weak learnability as being "slightly better than random guessing". We give a simple and efficient boosting algorithm, that does not require realizability assumptions and its sample and oracle complexity bounds are independent of the number of classes. In addition, we utilize our new boosting technique in several theoretical applications within the context of List PACLearning. First, we establish an equivalence to weak PAC learning. Furthermore, we present a new result on boosting for list learners, as well as provide a novel proof for the characterization of multiclass PAC learning and List PAC learning. Notably, our technique gives rise to a simplified analysis, and also implies an improved error bound for large list sizes, compared to previous results.

We develop a predictive-first optimisation framework for streaming hidden Markov models. Unlike classical approaches that prioritise full posterior recovery under a fully specified generative model, we assume access to regime-specific predictive models whose parameters are learned online while maintaining a fixed transition prior over regimes. Our objective is to sequentially identify latent regimes while maintaining accurate step-ahead predictive distributions. Because the number of possible regime paths grows exponentially, exact filtering is infeasible. We therefore formulate streaming inference as a constrained projection problem in predictive-distribution space: under a fixed hypothesis budget, we approximate the full posterior predictive by the forward-KL optimal mixture supported on $S$ paths. The solution is the renormalised top-$S$ posterior-weighted mixture, providing a principled derivation of beam search for HMMs. The resulting algorithm is fully recursive and deterministic, performing beam-style truncation with closed-form predictive updates and requiring neither EM nor sampling. Empirical comparisons against Online EM and Sequential Monte Carlo under matched computational budgets demonstrate competitive prequential performance.

In real-world applications, the distribution of the data, and our goals, evolve over time. The prevailing theoretical framework for studying machine learning, namely probably approximately correct (PAC) learning, largely ignores time. As a consequence, existing strategies to address the dynamic nature of data and goals exhibit poor real-world performance. This paper develops a theoretical framework calledProspective Learning that is tailored for situations when the optimal hypothesis changes over time. In PAC learning, empirical risk minimization (ERM) is known to be consistent.