overestimate
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Do Large Language Models Walk Their Talk? Measuring the Gap Between Implicit Associations, Self-Report, and Behavioral Altruism
We investigate whether Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit altruistic tendencies, and critically, whether their implicit associations and self-reports predict actual altruistic behavior. Using a multi-method approach inspired by human social psychology, we tested 24 frontier LLMs across three paradigms: (1) an Implicit Association Test (IAT) measuring implicit altruism bias, (2) a forced binary choice task measuring behavioral altruism, and (3) a self-assessment scale measuring explicit altruism beliefs. Our key findings are: (1) All models show strong implicit pro-altruism bias (mean IAT = 0.87, p < .0001), confirming models "know" altruism is good. (2) Models behave more altruistically than chance (65.6% vs. 50%, p < .0001), but with substantial variation (48-85%). (3) Implicit associations do not predict behavior (r = .22, p = .29). (4) Most critically, models systematically overestimate their own altruism, claiming 77.5% altruism while acting at 65.6% (p < .0001, Cohen's d = 1.08). This "virtue signaling gap" affects 75% of models tested. Based on these findings, we recommend the Calibration Gap (the discrepancy between self-reported and behavioral values) as a standardized alignment metric. Well-calibrated models are more predictable and behaviorally consistent; only 12.5% of models achieve the ideal combination of high prosocial behavior and accurate self-knowledge.
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On the Upper Bounds for the Matrix Spectral Norm
Naumov, Alexey, Rakhuba, Maxim, Ryapolov, Denis, Samsonov, Sergey
We consider the problem of estimating the spectral norm of a matrix using only matrix-vector products. We propose a new Counterbalance estimator that provides upper bounds on the norm and derive probabilistic guarantees on its underestimation. Compared to standard approaches such as the power method, the proposed estimator produces significantly tighter upper bounds in both synthetic and real-world settings. Our method is especially effective for matrices with fast-decaying spectra, such as those arising in deep learning and inverse problems.
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Review for NeurIPS paper: Quantile Propagation for Wasserstein-Approximate Gaussian Processes
Weaknesses: After reading the rebuttals and reviewer discussion, I realise that I was wrong about EP overestimating the variance and the strength of the paper's empirical results, so I have decided to downgrade my score. I still believe this paper should be accepted, but I'm less confident of the matter. Here are the things I changed my mind about, to more critical: - Does EP really overestimate the posterior variance? EP should overestimate the *support* of distributions, because the forward-KL covers all modes with a (unimodal) Gaussian. But this does not necessarily imply that the variance is overestimated, and locally the variance is matched exactly.
Tech Companies Are Taking Action on AI Election Misinformation. Will it Matter?
The announcement comes a day after Microsoft announced it was also taking a number of steps to protect elections, including offering tools to watermark AI-generated content and deploying a "Campaign Success Team" to advise political campaigns on AI, cybersecurity, and other related issues. Next year will be the most significant year for elections so far this century, with the U.S., India, the U.K., Mexico, Indonesia, and Taiwan all headed to the polls. Although many are concerned about the impact deepfakes and misinformation could have on elections, many experts stress the evidence for their impacts on elections so far is limited at best. Experts welcome the measures taken by tech companies to defend election integrity but say more fundamental changes to political systems will be required to tackle misinformation. Tech companies have come under scrutiny after the role they played in previous elections.
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- Media > News (1.00)
A novel corrective-source term approach to modeling unknown physics in aluminum extraction process
Robinson, Haakon, Lundby, Erlend, Rasheed, Adil, Gravdahl, Jan Tommy
With the ever-increasing availability of data, there has been an explosion of interest in applying modern machine learning methods to fields such as modeling and control. However, despite the flexibility and surprising accuracy of such black-box models, it remains difficult to trust them. Recent efforts to combine the two approaches aim to develop flexible models that nonetheless generalize well; a paradigm we call Hybrid Analysis and modeling (HAM). In this work we investigate the Corrective Source Term Approach (CoSTA), which uses a data-driven model to correct a misspecified physics-based model. This enables us to develop models that make accurate predictions even when the underlying physics of the problem is not well understood. We apply CoSTA to model the Hall-H\'eroult process in an aluminum electrolysis cell. We demonstrate that the method improves both accuracy and predictive stability, yielding an overall more trustworthy model.
- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Cambridgeshire > Cambridge (0.04)
- Europe > Norway > Central Norway > Trøndelag > Trondheim (0.04)
- Europe > France > Hauts-de-France > Nord > Lille (0.04)
14 Loss functions you can use for Regression
In mathematical optimization and decision theory, a loss function or cost function (sometimes also called an error function) is a function that maps an event or values of one or more variables onto a real number intuitively representing some "cost" associated with the event. An optimization problem seeks to minimize a loss function. An objective function is either a loss function or its opposite (in specific domains, variously called a reward function, a profit function, a utility function, a fitness function, etc.), in which case it is to be maximized. The loss function could include terms from several levels of the hierarchy. The kind of loss function you are going to use depends on the kind of problem you are working i.e Regression or Classification.
Optimal Sublinear Sampling of Spanning Trees and Determinantal Point Processes via Average-Case Entropic Independence
Anari, Nima, Liu, Yang P., Vuong, Thuy-Duong
We design fast algorithms for repeatedly sampling from strongly Rayleigh distributions, which include random spanning tree distributions and determinantal point processes. For a graph $G=(V, E)$, we show how to approximately sample uniformly random spanning trees from $G$ in $\widetilde{O}(\lvert V\rvert)$ time per sample after an initial $\widetilde{O}(\lvert E\rvert)$ time preprocessing. For a determinantal point process on subsets of size $k$ of a ground set of $n$ elements, we show how to approximately sample in $\widetilde{O}(k^\omega)$ time after an initial $\widetilde{O}(nk^{\omega-1})$ time preprocessing, where $\omega<2.372864$ is the matrix multiplication exponent. We even improve the state of the art for obtaining a single sample from determinantal point processes, from the prior runtime of $\widetilde{O}(\min\{nk^2, n^\omega\})$ to $\widetilde{O}(nk^{\omega-1})$. In our main technical result, we achieve the optimal limit on domain sparsification for strongly Rayleigh distributions. In domain sparsification, sampling from a distribution $\mu$ on $\binom{[n]}{k}$ is reduced to sampling from related distributions on $\binom{[t]}{k}$ for $t\ll n$. We show that for strongly Rayleigh distributions, we can can achieve the optimal $t=\widetilde{O}(k)$. Our reduction involves sampling from $\widetilde{O}(1)$ domain-sparsified distributions, all of which can be produced efficiently assuming convenient access to approximate overestimates for marginals of $\mu$. Having access to marginals is analogous to having access to the mean and covariance of a continuous distribution, or knowing "isotropy" for the distribution, the key assumption behind the Kannan-Lov\'asz-Simonovits (KLS) conjecture and optimal samplers based on it. We view our result as a moral analog of the KLS conjecture and its consequences for sampling, for discrete strongly Rayleigh measures.