A spatial point process can be characterized by an intensity function which predicts the number of events that occur across space. In this paper, we develop a method to infer predictive intensity intervals by learning a spatial model using a regularized criterion. We prove that the proposed method exhibits out-of-sample prediction performance guarantees which, unlike standard estimators, are valid even when the spatial model is misspecified. The method is demonstrated using synthetic as well as real spatial data.

A spatial point process can be characterized by an intensity function which predicts the number of events that occur across space. In this paper, we develop a method to infer predictive intensity intervals by learning a spatial model using a regularized criterion. We prove that the proposed method exhibits out-of-sample prediction performance guarantees which, unlike standard estimators, are valid even when the spatial model is misspecified. The method is demonstrated using synthetic as well as real spatial data.

Classical Kullback-Leibler or entropic distances are known to enjoy certain desirable statistical properties in the context of decision-making with noiseless data. However, in most practical situations the data available to a decision maker is subject to a certain amount of measurement noise. We hence study here data-driven prescription problems in which the data is corrupted by a known noise source. We derive efficient data-driven formulations in this noisy regime and indicate that they enjoy an entropic optimal transport interpretation. Finally, we show that these efficient robust formulations are tractable in several interesting settings by exploiting a classical representation result by Strassen.

We study the problem of designing optimal learning and decision-making formulations when only historical data is available. Prior work typically commits to a particular class of data-driven formulation and subsequently tries to establish out-of-sample performance guarantees. We take here the opposite approach. We define first a sensible yard stick with which to measure the quality of any data-driven formulation and subsequently seek to find an optimal such formulation. Informally, any data-driven formulation can be seen to balance a measure of proximity of the estimated cost to the actual cost while guaranteeing a level of out-of-sample performance. Given an acceptable level of out-of-sample performance, we construct explicitly a data-driven formulation that is uniformly closer to the true cost than any other formulation enjoying the same out-of-sample performance. We show the existence of three distinct out-of-sample performance regimes (a superexponential regime, an exponential regime and a subexponential regime) between which the nature of the optimal data-driven formulation experiences a phase transition. The optimal data-driven formulations can be interpreted as a classically robust formulation in the superexponential regime, an entropic distributionally robust formulation in the exponential regime and finally a variance penalized formulation in the subexponential regime. This final observation unveils a surprising connection between these three, at first glance seemingly unrelated, data-driven formulations which until now remained hidden.

Spatial point processes can be found in a range of applications from astronomy and biology to ecology and criminology. These processes can be characterized by a nonnegative intensity function λpxq which predicts the number of events that occur across space parameterized byxPX [8, 4]. A standard approach to estimate the intensity function of a process is to use nonparametric kernel density-based methods [6, 7]. These smoothing techniques require, however, careful tuning of kernel bandwidth parameters and are, more importantly, subject to selection biases. That is, in regions where no events have been observed, the intensity is inferred to be zero and no measure is readily available for a user to assess the uncertainty of such predictions. More advanced methods infer the intensity by assuming a parameterized model of the data-generating process, such as inhomogeneous Poisson point process models.

A spatial point process can be characterized by an intensity function which predicts the number of events that occur across space. In this paper, we develop a method to infer predictive intensity intervals by learning a spatial model using a regularized criterion. We prove that the proposed method exhibits out-of-sample prediction performance guarantees which, unlike standard estimators, are valid even when the spatial model is misspecified. The method is demonstrated using synthetic as well as real spatial data. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.