CART random forests are among the most widely used modern predictive methods, with well-documented empirical success. Yet, at the mechanistic level, the algorithm is often treated as a black box because of its complexity. In this paper, we develop a stochastic-control perspective on feature-subsampled CART random forests, named CART random opportunity-set allocation (CART-ROSA). At each node, the random subset of features is interpreted as a random feasible action set, and the CART split rule as a masked-action allocation policy. This policy induces a controlled stochastic process over informative split-count states, whose terminal law determines both single-tree error and cross-tree interaction terms in the forest mean squared error (MSE). Such representation opens the black box of CART-forests by separating two design levers: the informative-opportunity rate induced by feature subsampling, and the contraction strength from the within-mask split policy. We establish that the CART policy is locally stabilizing: it contracts imbalances in informative split allocations and concentrates terminal tree geometry. At the system level, however, it can be globally suboptimal for the forest objective. Specializing to the linear model, we derive the MSE risk expansion explicitly. Our results show how an operations-research perspective makes tractable a theoretical gap difficult to access from the standard algorithmic description of CART forests.

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) estimates the value of a target treatment policy (e.g., a recommender system) using data collected by a different logging policy. It enables high-stakes experimentation without live deployment, yet in practice accuracy depends heavily on the logging policy used to collect data for computing the estimate. We study how to design logging policies that minimize OPE error for given target policies. We characterize a fundamental reward-coverage tradeoff: concentrating probability mass on high-reward actions reduces variance but risks missing signal on actions the target policy may take. We propose a unifying framework for logging policy design and derive optimal policies in canonical informational regimes where the target policy and reward distribution are (i) known, (ii) unknown, and (iii) partially known through priors or noisy estimates at logging time. Our results provide actionable guidance for firms choosing among multiple candidate recommendation systems. We demonstrate the importance of treatment selection when gathering data for OPE, and describe theoretically optimal approaches when this is a firm's primary objective. We also distill practical design principles for selecting logging policies when operational constraints prevent implementing the theoretical optimum.

We introduce and analyze Target-Induced Loss Tilting (TILT) for unsupervised domain adaptation under covariate shift. It is based on a novel objective function that decomposes the source predictor as $f+b$, fits $f+b$ on labeled source data while simultaneously penalizing the auxiliary component $b$ on unlabeled target inputs. The resulting fit $f$ is deployed as the final target predictor. At the population level, we show that this target-side penalty implicitly induces relative importance weighting at the population level, but in terms of an estimand $b^*_f$ that is self-localized to the current error, and remains uniformly bounded for any source-target pair (even those with disjoint supports). We prove a general finite-sample oracle inequality on the excess risk, and use it to give an end-to-end guarantee for training with sparse ReLU networks. Experiments on controlled regression problems and shifted CIFAR-100 distillation show that TILT improves target-domain performance over source-only training, exact importance weighting, and relative density-ratio baselines, with a stable dependence on the regularization parameter.

Sparse Optimal Scoring (SOS) reformulates linear discriminant analysis to enable feature selection through elastic net regularization, making it well-suited for high-dimensional settings where the number of features exceeds observations. Most existing SOS methods use deflation-based strategies that compute discriminant vectors sequentially, which can propagate errors and produce suboptimal solutions. We propose a novel approach that estimates all discriminant vectors simultaneously under an explicit global orthogonality constraint, which we call Deflation-Free Sparse Optimal Scoring (DFSOS). DFSOS combines Bregman iteration with orthogonality-constrained optimization, decomposing the problem into tractable subproblems for scoring vectors, discriminant vectors, and orthogonality enforcement. We establish convergence to stationary points of the augmented Lagrangian under mild conditions. Extensive experiments using synthetic data and real-world time series data demonstrate that DFSOS achieves classification accuracy comparable to or better than existing deflation-based methods. These results indicate that deflation-free approaches offer a robust and effective framework for sparse discriminant analysis in high-dimensional problems.

A.1 Equations for Gaussian design In this Appendix we discuss the derivation of eqs. Exact asymptotic formulas for the excess prediction error of least-squares and ridge regression are a classic result in high-dimensional statistics, and have been derived in many different works [23, 32, 52, 53]. In this manuscript, we follow the presentation given in [25], which is particularly adapted to our derivation and has the advantage to hold rigorously at large but finite number of samples nand features p. We start by reviewing the formulas in [25]. Note that the risk considered in eq.

We consider the fixed-budget best arm identification problem where the goal is to find the arm of the largest mean with a fixed number of samples. It is known that the probability of misidentifying the best arm is exponentially small to the number of rounds. However, limited characterizations have been discussed on the rate (exponent) of this value. In this paper, we characterize the minimax optimal rate as a result of an optimization over all possible parameters. We introduce two rates, Rgo and Rgo, corresponding to lower bounds on the probability of misidentification, each of which is associated with a proposed algorithm. The rate Rgo is associated with Rgo-tracking, which can be efficiently implemented by a neural network and is shown to outperform existing algorithms. However, this rate requires a nontrivial condition to be achievable. To address this issue, we introduce the second rate Rgo . We show that this rate is indeed achievable by introducing a conceptual algorithm called delayed optimal tracking (DOT).

We present and analyze an algorithm for optimizing smooth and convex or strongly convex objectives using minibatch stochastic gradient estimates. The algorithm is optimal with respect to its dependence on both the minibatch size and minimum expected loss simultaneously. This improves over the optimal method of Lan [17], which is insensitive to the minimum expected loss; over the optimistic acceleration of Cotter et al. [10], which has suboptimal dependence on the minibatch size; and over the algorithm of Liu and Belkin [19], which is limited to least squares problems and is also similarly suboptimal with respect to the minibatch size.