'We had people come just to see it': Amazon delivers its first UK parcels by drone Amazon has become the first retailer in the UK to start a drone delivery service with a limited launch in Darlington, County Durham. Packages weighing less than 5lb (2.2kg) and containing everyday items such as beauty products, batteries and cables are now being delivered within a 7.5 mile (12km) radius of Amazon's fulfilment centre. The tech giant is convinced there is demand for ultra-fast deliveries and hopes to slowly expand the service. Rob Shield let Amazon use an Airbnb on his farm for its first test runs. Initially it was a novelty, so we were ordering everything under the sun, he says.

"I believe the technology was deployed too quickly in too vast amounts, with hundreds of vehicles, when it wasn't really ready," one police official told federal regulators last month. Emergency first-responder leaders told federal regulators in a private meeting last month that they were frustrated with the performance of autonomous vehicles on their streets--that city firefighters, police officers, EMTs, and paramedics are forced to spend time during emergencies resolving issues with frozen or stuck cars. One fire official called them "a safety issue for our crews as well as the victims." WIRED obtained an audio recording of the meeting. Officials from San Francisco and Austin, where Waymo has been ferrying passengers without drivers for more than a year, said the vehicles' performance is getting worse.

Selecting an appropriate kernel is a central challenge in kernel-based spectral methods. In \emph{Kernelized Diffusion Maps} (KDM), the kernel determines the accuracy of the RKHS estimator of a diffusion-type operator and hence the quality and stability of the recovered eigenfunctions. We introduce two complementary approaches to adaptive kernel selection for KDM. First, we develop a variational outer loop that learns continuous kernel parameters, including bandwidths and mixture weights, by differentiating through the Cholesky-reduced KDM eigenproblem with an objective combining eigenvalue maximization, subspace orthonormality, and RKHS regularization. Second, we propose an unsupervised cross-validation pipeline that selects kernel families and bandwidths using an eigenvalue-sum criterion together with random Fourier features for scalability. Both methods share a common theoretical foundation: we prove Lipschitz dependence of KDM operators on kernel weights, continuity of spectral projectors under a gap condition, a residual-control theorem certifying proximity to the target eigenspace, and exponential consistency of the cross-validation selector over a finite kernel dictionary.

We study the problem of estimating the effect function for a continuous treatment, which maps each treatment value to a population-averaged outcome. A central challenge in this setting is confounding: treatment assignment often depends on covariates, creating selection bias that makes direct regression of the response on treatment unreliable. To address this issue, we propose a two-stage kernel ridge regression method. In the first stage, we learn a model for the response as a function of both treatment and covariates; in the second stage, we use this model to construct pseudo-outcomes that correct for distribution shift, and then fit a second model to estimate the treatment effect. Although the response varies with both treatment and covariates, the induced effect function obtained by averaging over covariates is typically much simpler, and our estimator adapts to this structure. Furthermore, we introduce a fully data-driven model selection procedure that achieves provable adaptivity to both the unknown degree of overlap and the regularity (eigenvalue decay) of the underlying kernel.

The robust low-rank tensor completion problem addresses the challenge of recovering corrupted high-dimensional tensor data with missing entries, outliers, and sparse noise commonly found in real-world applications. Existing methodologies have encountered fundamental limitations due to their reliance on uniform regularization schemes, particularly the tensor nuclear norm and $\ell_1$ norm regularization approaches, which indiscriminately apply equal shrinkage to all singular values and sparse components, thereby compromising the preservation of critical tensor structures. The proposed tensor weighted correlated total variation (TWCTV) regularizer addresses these shortcomings through an $M$-product framework that combines a weighted Schatten-$p$ norm on gradient tensors for low-rankness with smoothness enforcement and weighted sparse components for noise suppression. The proposed weighting scheme adaptively reduces the thresholding level to preserve both dominant singular values and sparse components, thus improving the reconstruction of critical structural elements and nuanced details in the recovered signal. Through a systematic algorithmic approach, we introduce an enhanced alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) that offers both computational efficiency and theoretical substantiation, with convergence properties comprehensively analyzed within the $M$-product framework.Comprehensive numerical evaluations across image completion, denoising, and background subtraction tasks validate the superior performance of this approach relative to established benchmark methods.

We develop a theoretical framework for generalization in the interpolating regime of statistical learning. The central question is why highly overparameterized estimators can attain zero empirical risk while still achieving nontrivial predictive accuracy, and how to characterize the boundary between benign and destructive overfitting. We introduce a spectral-transport stability framework in which excess risk is controlled jointly by the spectral geometry of the data distribution, the sensitivity of the learning rule under single-sample replacement, and the alignment structure of label noise. This leads to a scale-dependent Fredriksson index that combines effective dimension, transport stability, and noise alignment into a single complexity parameter for interpolating estimators. We prove finite-sample risk bounds, establish a sharp benign-overfitting criterion through the vanishing of the index along admissible spectral scales, and derive explicit phase-transition rates under polynomial spectral decay. For a model-specific specialization, we obtain an explicit theorem for polynomial-spectrum linear interpolation, together with a proof of the resulting rate. The framework also clarifies implicit regularization by showing how optimization dynamics can select interpolating solutions of minimal spectral-transport energy. These results connect algorithmic stability, double descent, benign overfitting, operator-theoretic learning theory, and implicit bias within a unified structural account of modern interpolation.

We establish guarantees for the unique recovery of vector fields and transport maps from finite measure-valued data, yielding new insights into generative models, data-driven dynamical systems, and PDE inverse problems. In particular, we provide general conditions under which a diffeomorphism can be uniquely identified from its pushforward action on finitely many densities, i.e., when the data $\{(ρ_j,f_\#ρ_j)\}_{j=1}^m$ uniquely determines $f$. As a corollary, we introduce a new metric which compares diffeomorphisms by measuring the discrepancy between finitely many pushforward densities in the space of probability measures. We also prove analogous results in an infinitesimal setting, where derivatives of the densities along a smooth vector field are observed, i.e., when $\{(ρ_j,\text{div} (ρ_j v))\}_{j=1}^m$ uniquely determines $v$. Our analysis makes use of the Whitney and Takens embedding theorems, which provide estimates on the required number of densities $m$, depending only on the intrinsic dimension of the problem. We additionally interpret our results through the lens of Perron--Frobenius and Koopman operators and demonstrate how our techniques lead to new guarantees for the well-posedness of certain PDE inverse problems related to continuity, advection, Fokker--Planck, and advection-diffusion-reaction equations. Finally, we present illustrative numerical experiments demonstrating the unique identification of transport maps from finitely many pushforward densities, and of vector fields from finitely many weighted divergence observations.

The ISOKANN (Invariant Subspaces of Koopman Operators Learned by Artificial Neural Networks) framework provides a data-driven route to extract collective variables (CVs) and effective dynamics from complex molecular systems. In this work, we integrate the theoretical foundation of Koopman operators with Krylov-like subspace algorithms, and reduced dynamical modeling to build a coherent picture of how to describe metastable transitions in high-dimensional systems based on CVs. Starting from the identification of CVs based on dominant invariant subspaces, we derive the corresponding effective dynamics on the latent space and connect these to transition rates and times, committor functions, and transition pathways. The combination of Koopman-based learning and reduced-dimensional effective dynamics yields a principled framework for computing transition rates and pathways from simulation data. Numerical experiments on one-, two-, and three-dimensional benchmark potentials illustrate the ability of ISOKANN to reconstruct the coarse-grained kinetics and reproduce transition times across enthalpic and entropic barriers.

We study identification and inference in nonlinear dynamic systems defined on unknown interaction networks. The system evolves through an unobserved dependence matrix governing cross-sectional shock propagation via a nonlinear operator. We show that the network structure is not generically identified, and that identification requires sufficient spectral heterogeneity. In particular, identification arises when the network induces non-exchangeable covariance patterns through heterogeneous amplification of eigenmodes. When the spectrum is concentrated, dependence becomes observationally equivalent to common shocks or scalar heterogeneity, leading to non-identification. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for identification, characterize observational equivalence classes, and propose a semiparametric estimator with asymptotic theory. We also develop tests for network dependence whose power depends on spectral properties of the interaction matrix. The results apply to a broad class of economic models, including production networks, contagion models, and dynamic interaction systems.

It is known that the minimum-mean-squared-error (MMSE) denoiser under Gaussian noise can be written as a proximal operator, which suffices for asymptotic convergence of plug-and-play (PnP) methods but does not reveal the structure of the induced regularizer or give convergence rates. We show that the MMSE denoiser corresponds to a regularizer that can be written explicitly as an upper Moreau envelope of the negative log-marginal density, which in turn implies that the regularizer is 1-weakly convex. Using this property, we derive (to the best of our knowledge) the first sublinear convergence guarantee for PnP proximal gradient descent with an MMSE denoiser. We validate the theory with a one-dimensional synthetic study that recovers the implicit regularizer. We also validate the theory with imaging experiments (deblurring and computed tomography), which exhibit the predicted sublinear behavior.