Providing a timely intervention before the onset of a critical event, such as a system failure, is of importance in many industrial settings. Before the onset of the critical event, systems typically exhibit behavioral changes which often manifest as stochastic co-variate observations which may be leveraged to trigger intervention. In this paper, for the first time, we formulate the problem of finding an optimally timed intervention (OTI) policy as minimizing the expected residual time to event, subject to a constraint on the probability of missing the event. Existing machine learning approaches to intervention on critical events focus on predicting event occurrence within a pre-defined window (a classification problem) or predicting time-to-event (a regression problem). Interventions are then triggered by setting model thresholds.

Latent variable models are ubiquitous in the exploratory analysis of neural population recordings, where they allow researchers to summarize the activity of large populations of neurons in lower dimensional'latent' spaces. Existing methods can generally be categorized into (i) Bayesian methods that facilitate flexible incorporation of prior knowledge and uncertainty estimation, but which typically do not scale to large datasets; and (ii) highly parameterized methods without explicit priors that scale better but often struggle in the low-data regime. Here, we bridge this gap by developing a fully Bayesian yet scalable version of Gaussian process factor analysis (bGPFA), which models neural data as arising from a set of inferred latent processes with a prior that encourages smoothness over time. Additionally, bGPFA uses automatic relevance determination to infer the dimensionality of neural activity directly from the training data during optimization. To enable the analysis of continuous recordings without trial structure, we introduce a novel variational inference strategy that scales near-linearly in time and also allows for non-Gaussian noise models appropriate for electrophysiological recordings.

Thermocouples are in widespread use in industry, but they are particularly susceptible to calibration drift in harsh environments. Self-validating thermocouples aim to address this issue by using a miniature phase-change cell (fixed-point) in close proximity to the measurement junction (tip) of the thermocouple. The fixed point is a crucible containing an ingot of metal with a known melting temperature. When the process temperature being monitored passes through the melting temperature of the ingot, the thermocouple output exhibits a "plateau" during melting. Since the melting temperature of the ingot is known, the thermocouple can be recalibrated in situ. Identifying the melting plateau to determine the onset of melting is reasonably well established but requires manual intervention involving zooming in on the region around the actual melting temperature, a process which can depend on the shape of the melting plateau. For the first time, we present a novel machine learning approach to recognize and identify the characteristic shape of the melting plateau and once identified, to quantity the point at which melting begins, along with its associated uncertainty. This removes the need for human intervention in locating and characterizing the melting point. Results from test data provided by CCPI Europe show 100% accuracy of melting plateau detection. They also show a cross-validated R2 of 0.99 on predictions of calibration drift.

In this study, we present a deep learning framework that learns complex spatio-temporal correlation structures of EEG signals through a Spatio-Temporal Attention Network (ST AN) for accurate predictions of onset of seizures for Epilepsy patients. Unlike existing methods, which rely on feature engineering and/or assume fixed preictal durations, our approach simultaneously models spatio-temporal correlations through ST AN and employs an adversarial discriminator to distinguish preictal from interictal attention patterns, enabling patient-specific learning. Evaluation on CHB-MIT and MSSM datasets demonstrates 96.6% sensitivity with 0.011/h false detection rate on CHB-MIT, and 94.2% sensitivity with 0.063/h FDR on MSSM, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art methods.

Forecasting epileptic seizures from multivariate EEG signals represents a critical challenge in healthcare time series prediction, requiring high sensitivity, low false alarm rates, and subject-specific adaptability. We present STAN, an Adversarial Spatio-Temporal Attention Network that jointly models spatial brain connectivity and temporal neural dynamics through cascaded attention blocks with alternating spatial and temporal modules. Unlike existing approaches that assume fixed preictal durations or separately process spatial and temporal features, STAN captures bidirectional dependencies between spatial and temporal patterns through a unified cascaded architecture. Adversarial training with gradient penalty enables robust discrimination between interictal and preictal states learned from clearly defined 15-minute preictal windows. Continuous 90-minute pre-seizure monitoring reveals that the learned spatio-temporal attention patterns enable early detection: reliable alarms trigger at subject-specific times (typically 15-45 minutes before onset), reflecting the model's capacity to capture subtle preictal dynamics without requiring individualized training. Experiments on two benchmark EEG datasets (CHB-MIT scalp: 8 subjects, 46 events; MSSM intracranial: 4 subjects, 14 events) demonstrate state-of-the-art performance: 96.6% sensitivity with 0.011 false detections per hour and 94.2% sensitivity with 0.063 false detections per hour, respectively, while maintaining computational efficiency (2.3M parameters, 45 ms latency, 180 MB memory) for real-time edge deployment. Beyond epilepsy, the proposed framework provides a general paradigm for spatio-temporal forecasting in healthcare and other time series domains where individual heterogeneity and interpretability are crucial.

Abstract--Sepsis is a leading cause of mortality in intensive care units (ICUs), yet existing research often relies on outdated datasets, non-reproducible preprocessing pipelines, and limited coverage of clinical interventions. We introduce MIMIC-Sepsis, a curated cohort and benchmark framework derived from the MIMIC-IV database, designed to support reproducible modeling of sepsis trajectories. Our cohort includes 35,239 ICU patients with time-aligned clinical variables and standardized treatment data, including vasopressors, fluids, mechanical ventilation and antibiotics. We describe a transparent preprocess-ing pipeline--based on Sepsis-3 criteria, structured imputation strategies, and treatment inclusion--and release it alongside benchmark tasks focused on early mortality prediction, length-of-stay estimation, and shock onset classification. Empirical results demonstrate that incorporating treatment variables substantially improves model performance, particularly for Transformer-based architectures. MIMIC-Sepsis serves as a robust platform for evaluating predictive and sequential models in critical care research. Sepsis is a life-threatening condition caused by the body's extreme response to an infection that can lead to organ failure and even death.

The lack of standardization in seizure forecasting slows progress in the field and limits the clinical translation of forecasting models. In this work, we introduce a Python-based framework aimed at streamlining the development, assessment, and documentation of individualized seizure forecasting algorithms. The framework automates data labeling, cross-validation splitting, forecast post-processing, performance evaluation, and reporting. It supports various forecasting horizons and includes a model card that documents implementation details, training and evaluation settings, and performance metrics. Three different models were implemented as a proof-of-concept. The models leveraged features extracted from time series data and seizure periodicity. Model performance was assessed using time series cross-validation and key deterministic and probabilistic metrics. Implementation of the three models was successful, demonstrating the flexibility of the framework. The results also emphasize the importance of careful model interpretation due to variations in probability scaling, calibration, and subject-specific differences. Although formal usability metrics were not recorded, empirical observations suggest reduced development time and methodological consistency, minimizing unintentional variations that could affect the comparability of different approaches. As a proof-of-concept, this validation is inherently limited, relying on a single-user experiment without statistical analyses or replication across independent datasets. At this stage, our objective is to make the framework publicly available to foster community engagement, facilitate experimentation, and gather feedback. In the long term, we aim to contribute to the establishment of a consensus on a standardized methodology for the development and validation of seizure forecasting algorithms in people with epilepsy.