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The Powers of Precision: Structure-Informed Detection in Complex Systems -- From Customer Churn to Seizure Onset
Santos, Augusto, Santos, Teresa, Rodrigues, Catarina, Moura, José M. F.
Emergent phenomena -- onset of epileptic seizures, sudden customer churn, or pandemic outbreaks -- often arise from hidden causal interactions in complex systems. We propose a machine learning method for their early detection that addresses a core challenge: unveiling and harnessing a system's latent causal structure despite the data-generating process being unknown and partially observed. The method learns an optimal feature representation from a one-parameter family of estimators -- powers of the empirical covariance or precision matrix -- offering a principled way to tune in to the underlying structure driving the emergence of critical events. A supervised learning module then classifies the learned representation. We prove structural consistency of the family and demonstrate the empirical soundness of our approach on seizure detection and churn prediction, attaining competitive results in both. Beyond prediction, and toward explainability, we ascertain that the optimal covariance power exhibits evidence of good identifiability while capturing structural signatures, thus reconciling predictive performance with interpretable statistical structure.
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Offline RL with Discrete Proxy Representations for Generalizability in POMDPs
Offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) has demonstrated promising results in various applications by learning policies from previously collected datasets, reducing the need for online exploration and interactions. However, real-world scenarios usually involve partial observability, which brings crucial challenges of the deployment of offline RL methods: i) the policy trained on data with full observability is not robust against the masked observations during execution, and ii) the information of which parts of observations are masked is usually unknown during training. In order to address these challenges, we present Offline RL with DiscrEte pRoxy representations (ORDER), a probabilistic framework which leverages novel state representations to improve the robustness against diverse masked observabilities. Specifically, we propose a discrete representation of the states and use a proxy representation to recover the states from masked partial observable trajectories. The training of ORDER can be compactly described as the following three steps.
Uncertain Decisions Facilitate Better Preference Learning
Existing observational approaches for learning human preferences, such as inverse reinforcement learning, usually make strong assumptions about the observability of the human's environment. However, in reality, people make many important decisions under uncertainty. To better understand preference learning in these cases, we study the setting of inverse decision theory (IDT), a previously proposed framework where a human is observed making non-sequential binary decisions under uncertainty. In IDT, the human's preferences are conveyed through their loss function, which expresses a tradeoff between different types of mistakes. We give the first statistical analysis of IDT, providing conditions necessary to identify these preferences and characterizing the sample complexity--the number of decisions that must be observed to learn the tradeoff the human is making to a desired precision. Interestingly, we show that it is actually easier to identify preferences when the decision problem is more uncertain. Furthermore, uncertain decision problems allow us to relax the unrealistic assumption that the human is an optimal decision maker but still identify their exact preferences; we give sample complexities in this suboptimal case as well. Our analysis contradicts the intuition that partial observability should make preference learning more difficult. It also provides a first step towards understanding and improving preference learning methods for uncertain and suboptimal humans.
Architectures for Building Agentic AI
This chapter argues that the reliability of agentic and generative AI is chiefly an architectural property. We define agentic systems as goal-directed, tool-using decision makers operating in closed loops, and show how reliability emerges from principled componentisation (goal manager, planner, tool-router, executor, memory, verifiers, safety monitor, telemetry), disciplined interfaces (schema-constrained, validated, least-privilege tool calls), and explicit control and assurance loops. Building on classical foundations, we propose a practical taxonomy-tool-using agents, memory-augmented agents, planning and self-improvement agents, multi-agent systems, and embodied or web agents - and analyse how each pattern reshapes the reliability envelope and failure modes. We distil design guidance on typed schemas, idempotency, permissioning, transactional semantics, memory provenance and hygiene, runtime governance (budgets, termination conditions), and simulate-before-actuate safeguards.
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