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Reinforcement Learning for Micro-Level Claims Reserving

Avanzi, Benjamin, Richman, Ronald, Wong, Bernard, Wüthrich, Mario, Xie, Yagebu

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Outstanding claim liabilities are revised repeatedly as claims develop, yet most modern reserving models are trained as one-shot predictors and typically learn only from settled claims. We formulate individual claims reserving as a claim-level Markov decision process in which an agent sequentially updates outstanding claim liability (OCL) estimates over development, using continuous actions and a reward design that balances accuracy with stable reserve revisions. A key advantage of this reinforcement learning (RL) approach is that it can learn from all observed claim trajectories, including claims that remain open at valuation, thereby avoiding the reduced sample size and selection effects inherent in supervised methods trained on ultimate outcomes only. We also introduce practical components needed for actuarial use -- initialisation of new claims, temporally consistent tuning via a rolling-settlement scheme, and an importance-weighting mechanism to mitigate portfolio-level underestimation driven by the rarity of large claims. On CAS and SPLICE synthetic general insurance datasets, the proposed Soft Actor-Critic implementation delivers competitive claim-level accuracy and strong aggregate OCL performance, particularly for the immature claim segments that drive most of the liability.


On the use of case estimate and transactional payment data in neural networks for individual loss reserving

Avanzi, Benjamin, Lambrianidis, Matthew, Taylor, Greg, Wong, Bernard

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The use of neural networks trained on individual claims data has become increasingly popular in the actuarial reserving literature. We consider how to best input historical payment data in neural network models. Additionally, case estimates are also available in the format of a time series, and we extend our analysis to assessing their predictive power. In this paper, we compare a feed-forward neural network trained on summarised transactions to a recurrent neural network equipped to analyse a claim's entire payment history and/or case estimate development history. We draw conclusions from training and comparing the performance of the models on multiple, comparable highly complex datasets simulated from SPLICE (Avanzi, Taylor and Wang, 2023). We find evidence that case estimates will improve predictions significantly, but that equipping the neural network with memory only leads to meagre improvements. Although the case estimation process and quality will vary significantly between insurers, we provide a standardised methodology for assessing their value.


ARE: Scaling Up Agent Environments and Evaluations

Froger, Romain, Andrews, Pierre, Bettini, Matteo, Budhiraja, Amar, Cabral, Ricardo Silveira, Do, Virginie, Garreau, Emilien, Gaya, Jean-Baptiste, Laurençon, Hugo, Lecanu, Maxime, Malkan, Kunal, Mekala, Dheeraj, Ménard, Pierre, Bertran, Gerard Moreno-Torres, Piterbarg, Ulyana, Plekhanov, Mikhail, Rita, Mathieu, Rusakov, Andrey, Vorotilov, Vladislav, Wang, Mengjue, Yu, Ian, Benhalloum, Amine, Mialon, Grégoire, Scialom, Thomas

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce Meta Agents Research Environments (ARE), a research platform for scalable creation of environments, integration of synthetic or real applications, and execution of agentic orchestrations. ARE provides simple abstractions to build complex and diverse environments, each with their own rules, tools, content, and verifiers, helping to bridge the gap between model development and real-world deployment. We also propose Gaia2, a benchmark built in ARE and designed to measure general agent capabilities. Beyond search and execution, Gaia2 requires agents to handle ambiguities and noise, adapt to dynamic environments, collaborate with other agents, and operate under temporal constraints. Unlike prior benchmarks, Gaia2 runs asynchronously, surfacing new failure modes that are invisible in static settings. Our experiments show that no system dominates across the intelligence spectrum: stronger reasoning often comes at the cost of efficiency, and budget scaling curves plateau, highlighting the need for new architectures and adaptive compute strategies. Perhaps more importantly, ARE abstractions enable continuous extension of Gaia2 to other environments, empowering the community to rapidly create new benchmarks tailored to their domains. In AI's second half, progress increasingly depends on defining meaningful tasks and robust evaluations to drive frontier capabilities forward.


See-Control: A Multimodal Agent Framework for Smartphone Interaction with a Robotic Arm

Zhao, Haoyu, Ding, Weizhong, Yang, Yuhao, Tian, Zheng, Yang, Linyi, Shao, Kun, Wang, Jun

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have enabled their use as intelligent agents for smartphone operation. However, existing methods depend on the Android Debug Bridge (ADB) for data transmission and action execution, limiting their applicability to Android devices. In this work, we introduce the novel Embodied Smartphone Operation (ESO) task and present See-Control, a framework that enables smartphone operation via direct physical interaction with a low-DoF robotic arm, offering a platform-agnostic solution. See-Control comprises three key components: (1) an ESO benchmark with 155 tasks and corresponding evaluation metrics; (2) an MLLM-based embodied agent that generates robotic control commands without requiring ADB or system back-end access; and (3) a richly annotated dataset of operation episodes, offering valuable resources for future research. By bridging the gap between digital agents and the physical world, See-Control provides a concrete step toward enabling home robots to perform smartphone-dependent tasks in realistic environments.


Instagram's age-verification identified a moustachioed adult as over 16 – but how did it go with a 13-year-old?

The Guardian

In November Meta began notifying under-16 Instagram and Facebook users their accounts will be deactivated as part of Australia's social media ban for children. In November Meta began notifying under-16 Instagram and Facebook users their accounts will be deactivated as part of Australia's social media ban for children. Instagram's age-verification identified a moustachioed adult as over 16 - but how did it go with a 13-year-old? Meta platform allows users under 16 in Australia to change their date of birth - but only after clearing a'video selfie' or providing government ID Instagram's process for determining whether a user is over 16 is relatively quick and painless if you're clearly an adult - but how does it work if a 13-year-old tries to change their account's date of birth to make them appear grown up? Meta in November began notifying Instagram and Facebook users whose date of birth is set as under 16 - or who the platform understands to be under 16 - that their accounts will be deactivated as part of Australia's social media ban for children.


Use Google Gemini and ChatGPT to Organize Your Life With Scheduled Actions

WIRED

The AI's latest trick is following the schedule you set for it. The developers of the big generative AI chatbots are continuing to push out new features at a rapid rate, as they bid to make sure their bot is the one you turn to whenever you need some assistance from artificial intelligence. One of the latest updates to Google Gemini gives you the ability to set up scheduled actions. These are exactly what they sound like: Tasks that you can get Google Gemini to run automatically, on a schedule. Maybe you want a weather and news report every morning at 7 am, or perhaps you want an evening meal suggestion every evening at 7 pm.


Practical considerations when designing an online learning algorithm for an app-based mHealth intervention

Gonzalez, Rachel T, Abbott, Madeline R, Nallamothu, Brahmajee, Hummel, Scott, Dorsch, Michael, Dempsey, Walter

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The ubiquitous nature of mobile health (mHealth) technology has expanded opportunities for the integration of reinforcement learning into traditional clinical trial designs, allowing researchers to learn individualized treatment policies during the study. LowSalt4Life 2 (LS4L2) is a recent trial aimed at reducing sodium intake among hypertensive individuals through an app-based intervention. A reinforcement learning algorithm, which was deployed in one of the trial arms, was designed to send reminder notifications to promote app engagement in contexts where the notification would be effective, i.e., when a participant is likely to open the app in the next 30-minute and not when prior data suggested reduced effectiveness. Such an algorithm can improve app-based mHealth interventions by reducing participant burden and more effectively promoting behavior change. We encountered various challenges during the implementation of the learning algorithm, which we present as a template to solving challenges in future trials that deploy reinforcement learning algorithms. We provide template solutions based on LS4L2 for solving the key challenges of (i) defining a relevant reward, (ii) determining a meaningful timescale for optimization, (iii) specifying a robust statistical model that allows for automation, (iv) balancing model flexibility with computational cost, and (v) addressing missing values in gradually collected data.


Finally! Ring cams will stop bombarding you with AI alerts

PCWorld

When you purchase through links in our articles, we may earn a small commission. Ring cams will stop bombarding you with AI alerts With its latest feature, Ring aims to combine multiple AI-powered event summaries into a single notification. Ring's AI event notifications are handy when it comes to getting text descriptions of what's happening around your abode, but too many of the AI-generated pop-ups can get annoying fast. To cut down on the chatter, Ring is debuting a new feature: AI Single Event Alert, which takes multiple AI notifications from related motion events captured by your Ring cameras and combines them into--you guessed it--a single alert. The feature, which is slated to begin rolling out today for subscribers to Ring's priciest subscription plan, joins a couple of other Ring AI tools that were first introduced last fall: Video Descriptions, which employ AI to write brief summaries of video events, and Smart Video Search, which allows you to comb through your saved videos using natural-language queries.


Google Nest Cam Indoor and Outdoor 2K Review: Slick, Smart, and Secure

WIRED

The latest Nest cams jump to 2K resolution, but what really elevates them is Gemini's pricey AI subscription smarts. All products featured on WIRED are independently selected by our editors. However, when you buy something through our retail links, we may earn an affiliate commission. Gemini can answer questions and offer descriptions. Overhauled Google Home app is much improved.


State Your Intention to Steer Your Attention: An AI Assistant for Intentional Digital Living

Choi, Juheon, Lee, Juyong, Kim, Jian, Kim, Chanyoung, Min, Taywon, Knox, W. Bradley, Lee, Min Kyung, Lee, Kimin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

When working on digital devices, people often face distractions that can lead to a decline in productivity and efficiency, as well as negative psychological and emotional impacts. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel Artificial Intelligence (AI) assistant that elicits a user's intention, assesses whether ongoing activities are in line with that intention, and provides gentle nudges when deviations occur. The system leverages a large language model to analyze screenshots, application titles, and URLs, issuing notifications when behavior diverges from the stated goal. Its detection accuracy is refined through initial clarification dialogues and continuous user feedback. In a three-week, within-subjects field deployment with 22 participants, we compared our assistant to both a rule-based intent reminder system and a passive baseline that only logged activity. Results indicate that our AI assistant effectively supports users in maintaining focus and aligning their digital behavior with their intentions. Our source code is publicly available at https://intentassistant.github.io