We consider the problem of prediction with expert advice for ``easy'' sequences. We show that a variant of NormalHedge enjoys a second-order $ε$-quantile regret bound of $O\big(\sqrt{V_T \log(V_T/ε)}\big) $ when $V_T > \log N$, where $V_T$ is the cumulative second moment of instantaneous per-expert regret averaged with respect to a natural distribution determined by the algorithm. The algorithm is motivated by a continuous time limit using Stochastic Differential Equations. The discrete time analysis uses self-concordance techniques.

Quantile (and, more generally, KL) regret bounds, such as those achieved by NormalHedge (Chaudhuri, Freund, and Hsu 2009) and its variants, relax the goal of competing against the best individual expert to only competing against a majority of experts on adversarial data. More recently, the semi-adversarial paradigm (Bilodeau, Negrea, and Roy 2020) provides an alternative relaxation of adversarial online learning by considering data that may be neither fully adversarial nor stochastic (I.I.D.). We achieve the minimax optimal regret in both paradigms using FTRL with separate, novel, root-logarithmic regularizers, both of which can be interpreted as yielding variants of NormalHedge. We extend existing KL regret upper bounds, which hold uniformly over target distributions, to possibly uncountable expert classes with arbitrary priors; provide the first full-information lower bounds for quantile regret on finite expert classes (which are tight); and provide an adaptively minimax optimal algorithm for the semi-adversarial paradigm that adapts to the true, unknown constraint faster, leading to uniformly improved regret bounds over existing methods.

We provide a general mechanism to design online learning algorithms based on a minimax analysis within a drifting-games framework. Different online learning settings (Hedge, multi-armed bandit problems and online convex optimization) are studied by converting into various kinds of drifting games. The original minimax analysis for drifting games is then used and generalized by applying a series of relaxations, starting from choosing a convex surrogate of the 0-1 loss function. With different choices of surrogates, we not only recover existing algorithms, but also propose new algorithms that are totally parameter-free and enjoy other useful properties. Moreover, our drifting-games framework naturally allows us to study high probability bounds without resorting to any concentration results, and also a generalized notion of regret that measures how good the algorithm is compared to all but the top small fraction of candidates. Finally, we translate our new Hedge algorithm into a new adaptive boosting algorithm that is computationally faster as shown in experiments, since it ignores a large number of examples on each round.

Quantile (and, more generally, KL) regret bounds, such as those achieved by NormalHedge (Chaudhuri, Freund, and Hsu 2009) and its variants, relax the goal of competing against the best individual expert to only competing against a majority of experts on adversarial data. More recently, the semi-adversarial paradigm (Bilodeau, Negrea, and Roy 2020) provides an alternative relaxation of adversarial online learning by considering data that may be neither fully adversarial nor stochastic (I.I.D.). We achieve the minimax optimal regret in both paradigms using FTRL with separate, novel, root-logarithmic regularizers, both of which can be interpreted as yielding variants of NormalHedge. We extend existing KL regret upper bounds, which hold uniformly over target distributions, to possibly uncountable expert classes with arbitrary priors; provide the first full-information lower bounds for quantile regret on finite expert classes (which are tight); and provide an adaptively minimax optimal algorithm for the semi-adversarial paradigm that adapts to the true, unknown constraint faster, leading to uniformly improved regret bounds over existing methods.

We provide a general mechanism to design online learning algorithms based on a minimax analysis within a drifting-games framework. Different online learning settings (Hedge, multi-armed bandit problems and online convex optimization) are studied by converting into various kinds of drifting games. The original minimax analysis for drifting games is then used and generalized by applying a series of relaxations, starting from choosing a convex surrogate of the 0-1 loss function. With different choices of surrogates, we not only recover existing algorithms, but also propose new algorithms that are totally parameter-free and enjoy other useful properties. Moreover, our drifting-games framework naturally allows us to study high probability bounds without resorting to any concentration results, and also a generalized notion of regret that measures how good the algorithm is compared to all but the top small fraction of candidates. Finally, we translate our new Hedge algorithm into a new adaptive boosting algorithm that is computationally faster as shown in experiments, since it ignores a large number of examples on each round.

We provide a general mechanism to design online learning algorithms based on a minimax analysis within a drifting-games framework. Different online learning settings (Hedge, multi-armed bandit problems and online convex optimization) are studied by converting into various kinds of drifting games. The original minimax analysis for drifting games is then used and generalized by applying a series of relaxations, starting from choosing a convex surrogate of the 0-1 loss function. With different choices of surrogates, we not only recover existing algorithms, but also propose new algorithms that are totally parameter-free and enjoy other useful properties. Moreover, our drifting-games framework naturally allows us to study high probability bounds without resorting to any concentration results, and also a generalized notion of regret that measures how good the algorithm is compared to all but the top small fraction of candidates. Finally, we translate our new Hedge algorithm into a new adaptive boosting algorithm that is computationally faster as shown in experiments, since it ignores a large number of examples on each round.

We study the tracking problem, namely, estimating the hidden state of an object over time, from unreliable and noisy measurements. The standard framework for the tracking problem is the generative framework, which is the basis of solutions such as the Bayesian algorithm and its approximation, the particle filters. However, these solutions can be very sensitive to model mismatches. In this paper, motivated by online learning, we introduce a new framework for tracking. We provide an efficient tracking algorithm for this framework. We provide experimental results comparing our algorithm to the Bayesian algorithm on simulated data. Our experiments show that when there are slight model mismatches, our algorithm outperforms the Bayesian algorithm.

We study the tracking problem, namely, estimating the hidden state of an object over time, from unreliable and noisy measurements. The standard framework for the tracking problem is the generative framework, which is the basis of solutions such as the Bayesian algorithm and its approximation, the particle filters. However, the problem with these solutions is that they are very sensitive to model mismatches. In this paper, motivated by online learning, we introduce a new framework -- an {\em explanatory} framework -- for tracking. We provide an efficient tracking algorithm for this framework. We provide experimental results comparing our algorithm to the Bayesian algorithm on simulated data. Our experiments show that when there are slight model mismatches, our algorithm vastly outperforms the Bayesian algorithm.

We study the problem of decision-theoretic online learning (DTOL). Motivated by practical applications, we focus on DTOL when the number of actions is very large. Previous algorithms for learning in this framework have a tunable learning rate parameter, and a barrier to using online-learning in practical applications is that it is not understood how to set this parameter optimally, particularly when the number of actions is large. In this paper, we offer a clean solution by proposing a novel and completely parameter-free algorithm for DTOL. We introduce a new notion of regret, which is more natural for applications with a large number of actions. We show that our algorithm achieves good performance with respect to this new notion of regret; in addition, it also achieves performance close to that of the best bounds achieved by previous algorithms with optimally-tuned parameters, according to previous notions of regret.

We study the problem of decision-theoretic online learning (DTOL). Motivated by practical applications, we focus on DTOL when the number of actions is very large. Previous algorithms for learning in this framework have a tunable learning rate parameter, and a major barrier to using online-learning in practical applications is that it is not understood how to set this parameter optimally, particularly when the number of actions is large. In this paper, we offer a clean solution by proposing a novel and completely parameter-free algorithm for DTOL. In addition, we introduce a new notion of regret, which is more natural for applications with a large number of actions. We show that our algorithm achieves good performance with respect to this new notion of regret; in addition, it also achieves performance close to that of the best bounds achieved by previous algorithms with optimally-tuned parameters, according to previous notions of regret.