Researchers design a user-friendly interface that helps nonexperts make forecasts using data collected over time. Whether someone is trying to predict tomorrow's weather, forecast future stock prices, identify missed opportunities for sales in retail, or estimate a patient's risk of developing a disease, they will likely need to interpret time-series data, which are a collection of observations recorded over time. Making predictions using time-series data typically requires several data-processing steps and the use of complex machine-learning algorithms, which have such a steep learning curve they aren't readily accessible to nonexperts. To make these powerful tools more user-friendly, MIT researchers developed a system that directly integrates prediction functionality on top of an existing time-series database. Their simplified interface, which they call tspDB (time series predict database), does all the complex modeling behind the scenes so a nonexpert can easily generate a prediction in only a few seconds. MIT researchers created a tool that enables people to make highly accurate predictions using multiple time-series data with just a few keystrokes.

The proliferation of big data across domains, from banking to health care to environmental monitoring, has spurred increasing demand for machine learning tools that help organizations make decisions based on the data they gather. That growing industry demand has driven researchers to explore the possibilities of automated machine learning (AutoML), which seeks to automate the development of machine learning solutions in order to make them accessible for nonexperts, improve their efficiency, and accelerate machine learning research. For example, an AutoML system might enable doctors to use their expertise interpreting electroencephalography (EEG) results to build a model that can predict which patients are at higher risk for epilepsy -- without requiring the doctors to have a background in data science. Yet, despite more than a decade of work, researchers have been unable to fully automate all steps in the machine learning development process. Even the most efficient commercial AutoML systems still require a prolonged back-and-forth between a domain expert, like a marketing manager or mechanical engineer, and a data scientist, making the process inefficient.

Machine-learning algorithms are used to find patterns in data that humans wouldn't otherwise notice, and are being deployed to help inform decisions big and small – from COVID-19 vaccination development to Netflix recommendations. New award-winning research from the Cornell Ann S. Bowers College of Computing and Information Science explores how to help nonexperts effectively, efficiently and ethically use machine-learning algorithms to better enable industries beyond the computing field to harness the power of AI. "We don't know much about how nonexperts in machine learning come to learn algorithmic tools," said Swati Mishra, a Ph.D. student in the field of information science. "The reason is that there's a hype that's developed that suggests machine learning is for the ordained." Mishra is lead author of "Designing Interactive Transfer Learning Tools for ML Non-Experts," which received a Best Paper Award at the annual ACM CHI Virtual Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems, held in May. As machine learning has entered fields and industries traditionally outside of computing, the need for research and effective, accessible tools to enable new users in leveraging artificial intelligence is unprecedented, Mishra said.

In the winter 2004 issue of AI Magazine, we reported Vulcan Inc.'s first step toward creating a question-answering system called Digital Aristotle. The goal of that first step was to assess the state of the art in applied knowledge representation and reasoning (KRR) by asking AI experts to represent 70 pages from the advanced placement (AP) chemistry syllabus and to deliver knowledge-based systems capable of answering questions from that syllabus. This article reports the next step toward realizing a Digital Aristotle: we present the design and evaluation results for a system called AURA, which enables domain experts in physics, chemistry, and biology to author a knowledge base and that then allows a different set of users to ask novel questions against that knowledge base. These results represent a substantial advance over what we reported in 2004, both in the breadth of covered subjects and in the provision of sophisticated technologies in knowledge representation and reasoning, natural language processing, and question answering to domain experts and novice users. As this capability develops, the project focuses on two primary applications: a tutor capable of instructing and assessing students and a research assistant with the broad, interdisciplinary skills needed to help scientists in their work.