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Fast leave-one-cluster-out cross-validation by clustered Network Information Criteria (NICc)

Qiu, Jiaxing, Lake, Douglas E., Henry, Teague R.

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper introduced a clustered estimator of the Network Information Criterion (NICc) to approximate leave-one-cluster-out cross-validated deviance, which can be used as an alternative to cluster-based cross-validation when modeling clustered data. Stone proved that Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is an asymptotic equivalence to leave-one-observation-out cross-validation if the parametric model is true. Ripley pointed out that the Network Information Criterion (NIC) derived in Stone's proof, is a better approximation to leave-one-observation-out cross-validation when the model is not true. For clustered data, we derived a clustered estimator of NIC, referred to as NICc, by substituting the Fisher information matrix in NIC with its estimator that adjusts for clustering. This adjustment imposes a larger penalty in NICc than the unclustered estimator of NIC when modeling clustered data, thereby preventing overfitting more effectively. In a simulation study and an empirical example, we used linear and logistic regression to model clustered data with Gaussian or binomial response, respectively. We showed that NICc is a better approximation to leave-one-cluster-out deviance and prevents overfitting more effectively than AIC and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). NICc leads to more accurate model selection, as determined by cluster-based cross-validation, compared to AIC and BIC.


Enhancing ICU Patient Recovery: Using LLMs to Assist Nurses in Diary Writing

Freire, Samuel Kernan, van Mol, Margo MC, Schol, Carola, Vieira, Elif Özcan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite this progress, patients often face various health-related challenges in their long-term recovery[9, 10]. More than half of patients develop new physical, psychological, and/or cognitive problems following their ICU admission [7], collectively referred to as Post Intensive Care Syndrome (PICS) [3, 25]. Family members also experience a stressful period, potentially leading to psychological problems addressed as PICS-Family (PICS-F) [2]. Patient and family-centered care (PFCC) at the ICU, including emotional support and follow-up service, could mitigate the symptoms associated with both PICS and PICS-F. In this study, we explored how an emerging technology, i.e., large language models, could support the emotional well-being of people exposed to critical care.