However, in the presence of unobserved confounding, typically the causal quantity of interest will not be point-identified by observational data, unless special mechanisms are present in the data generating process (e.g.

In this paper, we show this is not the case by disentangling the notions of expressivity and learnability. Specifically, we show that the causal hierarchy theorem (Thm. 1, Bareinboim et al.,

Models that learn spurious correlations from training data often fail when deployed in new environments. While many methods aim to learn invariant representations to address this, they often underperform standard empirical risk minimization (ERM). We propose a data-centric alternative that shifts the focus from learning invariant representations to leveraging invariant data pairs -- pairs of samples that should have the same prediction. We prove that certain counterfactuals naturally satisfy this invariance property. Based on this, we introduce Noisy Counterfactual Matching (NCM), a simple constraint-based method that improves robustness by leveraging even a small number of \emph{noisy} counterfactual pairs -- improving upon prior works that do not explicitly consider noise. For linear causal models, we prove that NCM's test-domain error is bounded by its in-domain error plus a term dependent on the counterfactuals' quality and diversity. Experiments on synthetic data validate our theory, and we demonstrate NCM's effectiveness on real-world datasets.

Conformal prediction, which makes no distributional assumptions about the data, has emerged as a powerful and reliable approach to uncertainty quantification in practical applications. The nonconformity measure used in conformal prediction quantifies how a test sample differs from the training data and the effectiveness of a conformal prediction interval may depend heavily on the precise measure employed. The impact of this choice has, however, not been widely explored, especially when dealing with limited amounts of data. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of various nonconformity measures (absolute error-based, normalized absolute error-based, and quantile-based measures) in terms of validity and efficiency when used in inductive conformal prediction. The focus is on small datasets, which is still a common setting in many real-world applications. Using synthetic and real-world data, we assess how different characteristics -- such as dataset size, noise, and dimensionality -- can affect the efficiency of conformal prediction intervals. Our results show that although there are differences, no single nonconformity measure consistently outperforms the others, as the effectiveness of each nonconformity measure is heavily influenced by the specific nature of the data. Additionally, we found that increasing dataset size does not always improve efficiency, suggesting the importance of fine-tuning models and, again, the need to carefully select the nonconformity measure for different applications.

Neural code models (NCMs) have been widely used for addressing various code understanding tasks, such as defect detection and clone detection. However, numerous recent studies reveal that such models are vulnerable to backdoor attacks. Backdoored NCMs function normally on normal code snippets, but exhibit adversary-expected behavior on poisoned code snippets injected with the adversary-crafted trigger. It poses a significant security threat. For example, a backdoored defect detection model may misclassify user-submitted defective code as non-defective. If this insecure code is then integrated into critical systems, like autonomous driving systems, it could lead to life safety. However, there is an urgent need for effective defenses against backdoor attacks targeting NCMs. To address this issue, in this paper, we innovatively propose a backdoor defense technique based on trigger inversion, called EliBadCode. EliBadCode first filters the model vocabulary for trigger tokens to reduce the search space for trigger inversion, thereby enhancing the efficiency of the trigger inversion. Then, EliBadCode introduces a sample-specific trigger position identification method, which can reduce the interference of adversarial perturbations for subsequent trigger inversion, thereby producing effective inverted triggers efficiently. Subsequently, EliBadCode employs a Greedy Coordinate Gradient algorithm to optimize the inverted trigger and designs a trigger anchoring method to purify the inverted trigger. Finally, EliBadCode eliminates backdoors through model unlearning. We evaluate the effectiveness of EliBadCode in eliminating backdoor attacks against multiple NCMs used for three safety-critical code understanding tasks. The results demonstrate that EliBadCode can effectively eliminate backdoors while having minimal adverse effects on the normal functionality of the model.

Recent progress in Neural Causal Models (NCMs) showcased how identification and partial identification of causal effects can be automatically carried out via training of neural generative models that respect the constraints encoded in a given causal graph [Xia et al. 2022, Balazadeh et al. 2022]. However, formal consistency of these methods has only been proven for the case of discrete variables or only for linear causal models. In this work, we prove consistency of partial identification via NCMs in a general setting with both continuous and categorical variables. Further, our results highlight the impact of the design of the underlying neural network architecture in terms of depth and connectivity as well as the importance of applying Lipschitz regularization in the training phase. In particular, we provide a counterexample showing that without Lipschitz regularization the NCM may not be asymptotically consistent. Our results are enabled by new results on the approximability of structural causal models via neural generative models, together with an analysis of the sample complexity of the resulting architectures and how that translates into an error in the constrained optimization problem that defines the partial identification bounds.

Neural Language Models of Code, or Neural Code Models (NCMs), are rapidly progressing from research prototypes to commercial developer tools. As such, understanding the capabilities and limitations of such models is becoming critical. However, the abilities of these models are typically measured using automated metrics that often only reveal a portion of their real-world performance. While, in general, the performance of NCMs appears promising, currently much is unknown about how such models arrive at decisions. To this end, this paper introduces $do_{code}$, a post-hoc interpretability methodology specific to NCMs that is capable of explaining model predictions. $do_{code}$ is based upon causal inference to enable programming language-oriented explanations. While the theoretical underpinnings of $do_{code}$ are extensible to exploring different model properties, we provide a concrete instantiation that aims to mitigate the impact of spurious correlations by grounding explanations of model behavior in properties of programming languages. To demonstrate the practical benefit of $do_{code}$, we illustrate the insights that our framework can provide by performing a case study on two popular deep learning architectures and nine NCMs. The results of this case study illustrate that our studied NCMs are sensitive to changes in code syntax and statistically learn to predict tokens related to blocks of code (e.g., brackets, parenthesis, semicolon) with less confounding bias as compared to other programming language constructs. These insights demonstrate the potential of $do_{code}$ as a useful model debugging mechanism that may aid in discovering biases and limitations in NCMs.

The paper deals with the distribution of singular values of the input-output Jacobian of deep untrained neural networks in the limit of their infinite width. The Jacobian is the product of random matrices where the independent rectangular weight matrices alternate with diagonal matrices whose entries depend on the corresponding column of the nearest neighbor weight matrix. The problem was considered in \cite{Pe-Co:18} for the Gaussian weights and biases and also for the weights that are Haar distributed orthogonal matrices and Gaussian biases. Basing on a free probability argument, it was claimed that in these cases the singular value distribution of the Jacobian in the limit of infinite width (matrix size) coincides with that of the analog of the Jacobian with special random but weight independent diagonal matrices, the case well known in random matrix theory. The claim was rigorously proved in \cite{Pa-Sl:21} for a quite general class of weights and biases with i.i.d. (including Gaussian) entries by using a version of the techniques of random matrix theory. In this paper we use another version of the techniques to justify the claim for random Haar distributed weight matrices and Gaussian biases.