Learning binary classifiers from positive and unlabeled data (PUL) is vital in many real-world applications, especially when verifying negative examples is difficult. Despite the impressive empirical performance of recent PUL methods, challenges like accumulated errors and increased estimation bias persist due to the absence of negative labels. In this paper, we unveil an intriguing yet long-overlooked observation in PUL: \textit{resampling the positive data in each training iteration to ensure a balanced distribution between positive and unlabeled examples results in strong early-stage performance. Furthermore, predictive trends for positive and negative classes display distinctly different patterns.} Specifically, the scores (output probability) of unlabeled negative examples consistently decrease, while those of unlabeled positive examples show largely chaotic trends. Instead of focusing on classification within individual time frames, we innovatively adopt a holistic approach, interpreting the scores of each example as a temporal point process (TPP).

Online continual learning (OCL) requires the models to learn from constant, endless streams of data. While significant efforts have been made in this field, most were focused on mitigating the \textit{catastrophic forgetting} issue to achieve better classification ability, at the cost of a much heavier training workload. They overlooked that in real-world scenarios, e.g., in high-speed data stream environments, data do not pause to accommodate slow models. In this paper, we emphasize that \textit{model throughput}-- defined as the maximum number of training samples that a model can process within a unit of time -- is equally important. It directly limits how much data a model can utilize and presents a challenging dilemma for current methods. With this understanding, we revisit key challenges in OCL from both empirical and theoretical perspectives, highlighting two critical issues beyond the well-documented catastrophic forgetting: (\romannumeral1) Model's ignorance: the single-pass nature of OCL challenges models to learn effective features within constrained training time and storage capacity, leading to a trade-off between effective learning and model throughput; (\romannumeral2) Model's myopia: the local learning nature of OCL on the current task leads the model to adopt overly simplified, task-specific features and \textit{excessively sparse classifier}, resulting in the gap between the optimal solution for the current task and the global objective.

Learning binary classifiers from positive and unlabeled data (PUL) is vital in many real-world applications, especially when verifying negative examples is difficult. Despite the impressive empirical performance of recent PUL methods, challenges like accumulated errors and increased estimation bias persist due to the absence of negative labels. In this paper, we unveil an intriguing yet long-overlooked observation in PUL: \textit{resampling the positive data in each training iteration to ensure a balanced distribution between positive and unlabeled examples results in strong early-stage performance. Furthermore, predictive trends for positive and negative classes display distinctly different patterns.} Specifically, the scores (output probability) of unlabeled negative examples consistently decrease, while those of unlabeled positive examples show largely chaotic trends. Instead of focusing on classification within individual time frames, we innovatively adopt a holistic approach, interpreting the scores of each example as a temporal point process (TPP).

There has been a growing interest in multi-agent simulators in the domain of economic modeling. However, contemporary research often involves developing reinforcement learning (RL) based models that focus solely on a single type of agents, such as households, firms, or the government. Such an approach overlooks the adaptation of interacting agents thereby failing to capture the complexity of real-world economic systems. In this work, we consider a multi-agent simulator comprised of RL agents of numerous types, including heterogeneous households, firm, central bank and government. In particular, we focus on the crucial role of the government in distributing tax credits to households. We conduct two broad categories of comprehensive experiments dealing with the impact of tax credits on 1) households with varied degrees of myopia (short-sightedness in spending and saving decisions), and 2) households with diverse liquidity profiles. The first category of experiments examines the impact of the frequency of tax credits (e.g. annual vs quarterly) on consumption patterns of myopic households. The second category of experiments focuses on the impact of varying tax credit distribution strategies on households with differing liquidities. We validate our simulation model by reproducing trends observed in real households upon receipt of unforeseen, uniform tax credits, as documented in a JPMorgan Chase report. Based on the results of the latter, we propose an innovative tax credit distribution strategy for the government to reduce inequality among households. We demonstrate the efficacy of this strategy in improving social welfare in our simulation results.

Childhood myopia constitutes a significant global health concern. It exhibits an escalating prevalence and has the potential to evolve into severe, irreversible conditions that detrimentally impact familial well-being and create substantial economic costs. Contemporary research underscores the importance of precisely predicting myopia progression to enable timely and effective interventions, thereby averting severe visual impairment in children. Such predictions predominantly rely on subjective clinical assessments, which are inherently biased and resource-intensive, thus hindering their widespread application. In this study, we introduce a novel, high-accuracy method for quantitatively predicting the myopic trajectory and myopia risk in children using only fundus images and baseline refraction data. This approach was validated through a six-year longitudinal study of 3,408 children in Henan, utilizing 16,211 fundus images and corresponding refractive data. Our method based on deep learning demonstrated predictive accuracy with an error margin of 0.311D per year and AUC scores of 0.944 and 0.995 for forecasting the risks of developing myopia and high myopia, respectively. These findings confirm the utility of our model in supporting early intervention strategies and in significantly reducing healthcare costs, particularly by obviating the need for additional metadata and repeated consultations. Furthermore, our method was designed to rely only on fundus images and refractive error data, without the need for meta data or multiple inquiries from doctors, strongly reducing the associated medical costs and facilitating large-scale screening. Our model can even provide good predictions based on only a single time measurement. Consequently, the proposed method is an important means to reduce medical inequities caused by economic disparities.

Ultra-widefield (UWF) fundus images are replacing traditional fundus images in screening, detection, prediction, and treatment of complications related to myopia because their much broader visual range is advantageous for highly myopic eyes. Spherical equivalent (SE) is extensively used as the main myopia outcome measure, and axial length (AL) has drawn increasing interest as an important ocular component for assessing myopia. Cutting-edge studies show that SE and AL are strongly correlated. Using the joint information from SE and AL is potentially better than using either separately. In the deep learning community, though there is research on multiple-response tasks with a 3D image biomarker, dependence among responses is only sporadically taken into consideration. Inspired by the spirit that information extracted from the data by statistical methods can improve the prediction accuracy of deep learning models, we formulate a class of multivariate response regression models with a higher-order tensor biomarker, for the bivariate tasks of regression-classification and regression-regression. Specifically, we propose a copula-enhanced convolutional neural network (CeCNN) framework that incorporates the dependence between responses through a Gaussian copula (with parameters estimated from a warm-up CNN) and uses the induced copula-likelihood loss with the backbone CNNs. We establish the statistical framework and algorithms for the aforementioned two bivariate tasks. We show that the CeCNN has better prediction accuracy after adding the dependency information to the backbone models. The modeling and the proposed CeCNN algorithm are applicable beyond the UWF scenario and can be effective with other backbones beyond ResNet and LeNet.

Background: Quantitative prediction of the adolescents' spherical equivalent based on their variable-length historical vision records. Methods: From October 2019 to March 2022, we examined binocular uncorrected visual acuity, axial length, corneal curvature, and axial of 75,172 eyes from 37,586 adolescents aged 6-20 years in Chengdu, China. 80\% samples consist of the training set and the remaining 20\% form the testing set. Time-Aware Long Short-Term Memory was used to quantitatively predict the adolescents' spherical equivalent within two and a half years. Result: The mean absolute prediction error on the testing set was 0.273-0.257 for spherical equivalent, ranging from 0.189-0.160 to 0.596-0.473 if we consider different lengths of historical records and different prediction durations. Conclusions: Time-Aware Long Short-Term Memory was applied to captured the temporal features in irregularly sampled time series, which is more in line with the characteristics of real data and thus has higher applicability, and helps to identify the progression of myopia earlier. The overall error 0.273 is much smaller than the criterion for clinically acceptable prediction, say 0.75.

Sebastian Flennerhag, Yannick Schroecker, Tom Zahavy, Hado van Hasselt, David Silver, and Satinder Singh won an ICLR 2022 outstanding paper award for their work Bootstrapped meta-learning. We spoke to Sebastian about how the team approached the problem of meta-learning, how their algorithm performs, and plans for future work. Meta-learning, generally, is the problem of learning to learn. So what is meant by that is that when you specify a machine learning problem, you need some algorithm that does that learning. However, it's not clear which algorithm is actually the most efficient one for the specific problem that you have in mind.

Natural selection among humans is adding to the'epidemic' of nearsightedness, with each successive generation in the UK gaining more than 100,000 extra cases. It is estimated that around half of the world's population -- some 4.9 billion people -- will suffer from the distant visual impairment by the middle of the century. Much of the problem is environmental -- with increased screen time and not enough spent outdoors using our long-distance vision often blamed. However, US experts have found that many of the genetic variants that increase the risk of nearsightedness, or myopia, are also associated with reproductive benefits. Thus, those with these genes are likely to have more children, and from a younger age, increasing the relative prevalence of myopia-causing genes in the population.