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Shared Keyboard: An improved Bayesian design for phase I clinical trials via Beta kernel process

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Model-assisted interval designs such as the Keyboard design are transparent and easy to implement in phase I oncology trials. However, interim decisions based solely on data from the current dose may overlook informative signals from neighbouring doses, leading to unnecessary escalation or de-escalation. We propose the shared Keyboard design, a Bayesian model-assisted design that replaces the independent beta--binomial updating scheme at each dose with a posterior induced by a Beta kernel process using kernel-weighted pseudo-counts. The design preserves the decision structure of the Keyboard design while enabling controlled borrowing across nearby doses. To prioritise overdose control, we propose an asymmetric kernel that assigns greater weight to toxicities observed at higher doses during escalation. We further extend the proposed design to accommodate adaptive dose insertion when the initial dose grid is inadequate and time-to-event outcomes when late-onset toxicities are present. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate substantial improvements in both accuracy and safety for identifying the maximum tolerated dose. In settings involving dose insertion, the proposed design identifies inserted target doses more effectively than adaptive dose modification while maintaining a comparable modification rate.


A Geometric Approach to Optimal Experimental Design

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a novel geometric framework for optimal experimental design (OED). Traditional OED approaches, such as those based on mutual information, rely explicitly on probability densities, leading to restrictive invariance properties. To address these limitations, we propose the mutual transport dependence (MTD), a measure of statistical dependence grounded in optimal transport theory which provides a geometric objective for optimizing designs. Unlike conventional approaches, the MTD can be tailored to specific downstream estimation problems by choosing appropriate geometries on the underlying spaces. We demonstrate that our framework produces high-quality designs while offering a flexible alternative to standard information-theoretic techniques.


Merge-of-Thought Distillation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Efficient reasoning distillation for long chain-of-thought (CoT) models is increasingly constrained by the assumption of a single oracle teacher, despite the practical availability of multiple candidate teachers and growing CoT corpora. We revisit teacher selection and observe that different students have different "best teachers," and even for the same student, the best teacher can vary across datasets. Therefore, to unify multiple teachers' reasoning abilities into a student to overcome conflicts among various teachers' supervision, we propose Merge-of-Thought Distillation (MoT), a lightweight framework that alternates between teacher-specific supervised fine-tuning branches and weight-space merging of the resulting student variants. On competition math benchmarks, using only about 200 CoT samples, applying MoT to a Qwen3-14B student surpasses strong models including Deepseek-R1, Qwen3-32B, and OpenAI-O1, demonstrating substantial gains. Besides, MoT consistently outperforms the best single-teacher distillation, improves general reasoning beyond mathematics while reducing catastrophic forgetting, and shows robustness to distribution-shifted and peer-level teachers. Finally, we have demonstrated MoT possesses consensus CoT by eliminating teacher-specific inductive biases and inter-teacher conflicts while repeatedly reinforcing the learning of consensus reasoning features. These results position MoT as a simple, effective route to efficiently distilling long CoT capabilities from diverse teachers into compact students.


Dose-finding design based on level set estimation in phase I cancer clinical trials

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Dose-finding design based on level set estimation in phase I cancer clinical trials Keiichiro Seno 1 a, Kota Matsui 2b, Shogo Iwazaki 3, Yu Inatsu 4, Shion Takeno 5, 6 and Shigeyuki Matsui 2, 7 1 Department of Biostatistics, Nagoya University 2 Department of Biostatistics, Kyoto University 3 MI-6 Ltd. 4 Department of Computer Science, Nagoya Institute of Technology 5 Department of Mechanical Systems Engineering, Nagoya University 6 Center for Advanced Intelligence Project, RIKEN 7 Research Center for Medical and Health Data Science, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics Abstract The primary objective of phase I cancer clinical trials is to evaluate the safety of a new experimental treatment and to find the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). We show that the MTD estimation problem can be regarded as a level set estimation (LSE) problem whose objective is to determine the regions where an unknown function value is above or below a given threshold. Then, we propose a novel ...


Improving Location-based Thermal Emission Side-Channel Analysis Using Iterative Transfer Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper proposes the use of iterative transfer learning applied to deep learning models for side-channel attacks. Currently, most of the side-channel attack methods train a model for each individual byte, without considering the correlation between bytes. However, since the models' parameters for attacking different bytes may be similar, we can leverage transfer learning, meaning that we first train the model for one of the key bytes, then use the trained model as a pretrained model for the remaining bytes. This technique can be applied iteratively, a process known as iterative transfer learning. Experimental results show that when using thermal or power consumption map images as input, and multilayer perceptron or convolutional neural network as the model, our method improves average performance, especially when the amount of data is insufficient.


Towards Secure Intelligent O-RAN Architecture: Vulnerabilities, Threats and Promising Technical Solutions using LLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The evolution of wireless communication systems will be fundamentally impacted by an open radio access network (O-RAN), a new concept defining an intelligent architecture with enhanced flexibility, openness, and the ability to slice services more efficiently. For all its promises, and like any technological advancement, O-RAN is not without risks that need to be carefully assessed and properly addressed to accelerate its wide adoption in future mobile networks. In this paper, we present an in-depth security analysis of the O-RAN architecture, discussing the potential threats that may arise in the different O-RAN architecture layers and their impact on the Confidentiality, Integrity, and Availability (CIA) triad. We also promote the potential of zero trust, Moving Target Defense (MTD), blockchain, and large language models(LLM) technologies in fortifying O-RAN's security posture. Furthermore, we numerically demonstrate the effectiveness of MTD in empowering robust deep reinforcement learning methods for dynamic network slice admission control in the O-RAN architecture. Moreover, we examine the effect of explainable AI (XAI) based on LLMs in securing the system.


Modeling IoT Traffic Patterns: Insights from a Statistical Analysis of an MTC Dataset

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As MTC networks continue to grow rapidly, managing and optimizing resources has become a crucial challenge for ensuring scalability. Additionally, the low-power/complexity of the MTC devices (MTD) present another challenge in terms of data management and network availability. These factors depend on the limited battery lifetime of the devices and their ability to implement algorithms, making energy efficiency and optimization critical enablers for future MTC networks (Shafiq et al., 2020). Characterizing and modeling MTC traffic is crucial for optimizing wireless IoT networks by tailoring management strategies to specific application needs (Sharma & Wang, 2019, 2018). With this, significant energy savings may be achieved, which is crucial due to the limited battery lifespan inherent in IoT networks, thereby improving network efficiency and scalability Shafiq et al. (2020). This may be enabled by the exploitation of accurate machine learning (ML)-based traffic predictors (Kato et al., 2016). For example, idle channel monitoring is responsible for wasting over half of the energy consumed in these networks (Mughees et al., 2020) while the results in (Ruiz-Guirola et al., 2022) indicated that up to 38% of the consumed energy could be saved by exploiting a prediction method when using sleep modes like wake-up radio or discontinuous reception. Unfortunately, the use of ML requires numerous labeled data obtained from extensive, large-scale dataset (Aldahiri et al., 2021). A significant stage of the ML process is the data analysis, which can be a difficult task.


Decision-Focused Model-based Reinforcement Learning for Reward Transfer

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decision-focused (DF) model-based reinforcement learning has recently been introduced as a powerful algorithm that can focus on learning the MDP dynamics that are most relevant for obtaining high returns. While this approach increases the agent's performance by directly optimizing the reward, it does so by learning less accurate dynamics from a maximum likelihood perspective. We demonstrate that when the reward function is defined by preferences over multiple objectives, the DF model may be sensitive to changes in the objective preferences.In this work, we develop the robust decision-focused (RDF) algorithm, which leverages the non-identifiability of DF solutions to learn models that maximize expected returns while simultaneously learning models that transfer to changes in the preference over multiple objectives. We demonstrate the effectiveness of RDF on two synthetic domains and two healthcare simulators, showing that it significantly improves the robustness of DF model learning to changes in the reward function without compromising training-time return.


Effectiveness of Moving Target Defenses for Adversarial Attacks in ML-based Malware Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Several moving target defenses (MTDs) to counter adversarial ML attacks have been proposed in recent years. MTDs claim to increase the difficulty for the attacker in conducting attacks by regularly changing certain elements of the defense, such as cycling through configurations. To examine these claims, we study for the first time the effectiveness of several recent MTDs for adversarial ML attacks applied to the malware detection domain. Under different threat models, we show that transferability and query attack strategies can achieve high levels of evasion against these defenses through existing and novel attack strategies across Android and Windows. We also show that fingerprinting and reconnaissance are possible and demonstrate how attackers may obtain critical defense hyperparameters as well as information about how predictions are produced. Based on our findings, we present key recommendations for future work on the development of effective MTDs for adversarial attacks in ML-based malware detection.


Multimodal Tree Decoder for Table of Contents Extraction in Document Images

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Table of contents (ToC) extraction aims to extract headings of different levels in documents to better understand the outline of the contents, which can be widely used for document understanding and information retrieval. Existing works often use hand-crafted features and predefined rule-based functions to detect headings and resolve the hierarchical relationship between headings. Both the benchmark and research based on deep learning are still limited. Accordingly, in this paper, we first introduce a standard dataset, HierDoc, including image samples from 650 documents of scientific papers with their content labels. Then we propose a novel end-to-end model by using the multimodal tree decoder (MTD) for ToC as a benchmark for HierDoc. The MTD model is mainly composed of three parts, namely encoder, classifier, and decoder. The encoder fuses the multimodality features of vision, text, and layout information for each entity of the document. Then the classifier recognizes and selects the heading entities. Next, to parse the hierarchical relationship between the heading entities, a tree-structured decoder is designed. To evaluate the performance, both the metric of tree-edit-distance similarity (TEDS) and F1-Measure are adopted. Finally, our MTD approach achieves an average TEDS of 87.2% and an average F1-Measure of 88.1% on the test set of HierDoc. The code and dataset will be released at: https://github.com/Pengfei-Hu/MTD.