Mark Moran, an underdog Senate candidate from Virginia, claims he wanted to get caught violating the prediction market platform's rules. Kalshi announced Wednesday that it had taken action against three US politicians for violating the prediction market platform's rules on insider trading. One of the candidates, Mark Moran, a former investment banker and contestant on the reality dating show, is running a long-shot campaign for US Senate in Virginia against incumbent Mark Warner. According to Moran, getting caught was actually his plan all along: "I bet $100 on myself, not denying that, I did do it," he tells WIRED. "I wanted to see if they would enforce it."

We aim to understand the optimal PAC sample complexity in multiclass learning. While finiteness of the Daniely-Shalev-Shwartz (DS) dimension has been shown to characterize the PAC learnability of a concept class [Brukhim, Carmon, Dinur, Moran, and Yehudayoff, 2022], there exist polylog factor gaps in the leading term of the sample complexity. In this paper, we reduce the gap in terms of the dependence on the error parameter to a single log factor and also propose two possible routes towards completely resolving the optimal sample complexity, each based on a key open question we formulate: one concerning list learning with bounded list size, the other concerning a new type of shifting for multiclass concept classes. We prove that a positive answer to either of the two questions would completely resolve the optimal sample complexity up to log factors of the DS dimension.

We provide a complete theory of optimal universal rates for binary classification in the agnostic setting. This extends the realizable-case theory of Bousquet, Hanneke, Moran, van Handel, and Yehudayoff (2021) by removing the realizability assumption on the distribution. We identify a fundamental tetrachotomy of optimal rates: for every concept class, the optimal universal rate of convergence of the excess error rate is one of $e^{-n}$, $e^{-o(n)}$, $o(n^{-1/2})$, or arbitrarily slow. We further identify simple combinatorial structures which determine which of these categories any given concept class falls into.

In this paper we study the problem of multiclass classification with a bounded number of different labels $k$, in the realizable setting. We extend the traditional PAC model to a) distribution-dependent learning rates, and b) learning rates under data-dependent assumptions. First, we consider the universal learning setting (Bousquet, Hanneke, Moran, van Handel and Yehudayoff, STOC'21), for which we provide a complete characterization of the achievable learning rates that holds for every fixed distribution. In particular, we show the following trichotomy: for any concept class, the optimal learning rate is either exponential, linear or arbitrarily slow. Additionally, we provide complexity measures of the underlying hypothesis class that characterize when these rates occur. Second, we consider the problem of multiclass classification with structured data (such as data lying on a low dimensional manifold or satisfying margin conditions), a setting which is captured by partial concept classes (Alon, Hanneke, Holzman and Moran, FOCS'21). Partial concepts are functions that can be undefined in certain parts of the input space. We extend the traditional PAC learnability of total concept classes to partial concept classes in the multiclass setting and investigate differences between partial and total concepts.

Decision trees remain central for tabular prediction but struggle with (i) capturing spatial dependence and (ii) producing locally stable (robust) explanations. We present SX-GeoTree, a self-explaining geospatial regression tree that integrates three coupled objectives during recursive splitting: impurity reduction (MSE), spatial residual control (global Moran's I), and explanation robustness via modularity maximization on a consensus similarity network formed from (a) geographically weighted regression (GWR) coefficient distances (stimulus-response similarity) and (b) SHAP attribution distances (explanatory similarity). We recast local Lipschitz continuity of feature attributions as a network community preservation problem, enabling scalable enforcement of spatially coherent explanations without per-sample neighborhood searches. Experiments on two exemplar tasks (county-level GDP in Fujian, n=83; point-wise housing prices in Seattle, n=21,613) show SX-GeoTree maintains competitive predictive accuracy (within 0.01 $R^{2}$ of decision trees) while improving residual spatial evenness and doubling attribution consensus (modularity: Fujian 0.19 vs 0.09; Seattle 0.10 vs 0.05). Ablation confirms Moran's I and modularity terms are complementary; removing either degrades both spatial residual structure and explanation stability. The framework demonstrates how spatial similarity - extended beyond geometric proximity through GWR-derived local relationships - can be embedded in interpretable models, advancing trustworthy geospatial machine learning and offering a transferable template for domain-aware explainability.

Increasing flood frequency and severity due to climate change threatens infrastructure and demands improved susceptibility mapping techniques. While traditional machine learning (ML) approaches are widely used, they struggle to capture spatial dependencies and poor boundary delineation between susceptibility classes. This study introduces the first application of a graph transformer (GT) architecture for flood susceptibility mapping to the flood-prone French Riviera (e.g., 2020 Storm Alex) using topography, hydrology, geography, and environmental data. GT incorporates watershed topology using Laplacian positional encoders (PEs) and attention mechanisms. The developed GT model has an AUC-ROC (0.9739), slightly lower than XGBoost (0.9853). However, the GT model demonstrated better clustering and delineation with a higher Moran's I value (0.6119) compared to the random forest (0.5775) and XGBoost (0.5311) with p-value lower than 0.0001. Feature importance revealed a striking consistency across models, with elevation, slope, distance to channel, and convergence index being the critical factors. Dimensionality reduction on Laplacian PEs revealed partial clusters, indicating they could capture spatial information; however, their importance was lower than flood factors. Since climate and land use changes aggravate flood risk, susceptibility maps are developed for the 2050 year under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and railway track vulnerability is assessed. All RCP scenarios revealed increased area across susceptibility classes, except for the very low category. RCP 8.5 projections indicate that 17.46% of the watershed area and 54% of railway length fall within very-high susceptible zones, compared to 6.19% and 35.61%, respectively, under current conditions. The developed maps can be integrated into a multi-hazard framework.

We aim to understand the optimal PAC sample complexity in multiclass learning. While finiteness of the Daniely-Shalev-Shwartz (DS) dimension has been shown to characterize the PAC learnability of a concept class [Brukhim, Carmon, Dinur, Moran, and Yehudayoff, 2022], there exist polylog factor gaps in the leading term of the sample complexity. In this paper, we reduce the gap in terms of the dependence on the error parameter to a single log factor and also propose two possible routes towards completely resolving the optimal sample complexity, each based on a key open question we formulate: one concerning list learning with bounded list size, the other concerning a new type of shifting for multiclass concept classes. We prove that a positive answer to either of the two questions would completely resolve the optimal sample complexity up to log factors of the DS dimension.

Environmental exposure to fluoride is a major public health concern, particularly in regions with naturally elevated fluoride concentrations. Accurate modeling of fluoride-related health risks, such as dental fluorosis, requires spatially aware learning frameworks capable of capturing both geographic and semantic heterogeneity. In this work, we propose Spatially Directional Dual-Attention Graph Attention Network (SDD-GAT), a novel spatial graph neural network designed for fine-grained health risk prediction. SDD-GAT introduces a dual-graph architecture that disentangles geographic proximity and attribute similarity, and incorporates a directional attention mechanism that explicitly encodes spatial orientation and distance into the message passing process. To further enhance spatial coherence, we introduce a spatial smoothness regularization term that enforces consistency in predictions across neighboring locations. We evaluate SDD-GAT on a large-scale dataset covering over 50,000 fluoride monitoring samples and fluorosis records across Guizhou Province, China. Results show that SDD-GAT significantly outperforms traditional models and state-of-the-art GNNs in both regression and classification tasks, while also exhibiting improved spatial autocorrelation as measured by Moran's I. Our framework provides a generalizable foundation for spatial health risk modeling and geospatial learning under complex environmental settings.

Urban prediction tasks, such as forecasting traffic flow, temperature, and crime rates, are crucial for efficient urban planning and management. However, existing Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (ST-GNNs) often rely solely on accuracy, overlooking spatial and demographic disparities in their predictions. This oversight can lead to imbalanced resource allocation and exacerbate existing inequities in urban areas. This study introduces a Residual-Aware Attention (RAA) Block and an equality-enhancing loss function to address these disparities. By adapting the adjacency matrix during training and incorporating spatial disparity metrics, our approach aims to reduce local segregation of residuals and errors. We applied our methodology to urban prediction tasks in Chicago, utilizing a travel demand dataset as an example. Our model achieved a 48% significant improvement in fairness metrics with only a 9% increase in error metrics. Spatial analysis of residual distributions revealed that models with RAA Blocks produced more equitable prediction results, particularly by reducing errors clustered in central regions. Attention maps demonstrated the model's ability to dynamically adjust focus, leading to more balanced predictions. Case studies of various community areas in Chicago further illustrated the effectiveness of our approach in addressing spatial and demographic disparities, supporting more balanced and equitable urban planning and policy-making.

In this paper we study the problem of multiclass classification with a bounded number of different labels k, in the realizable setting. We extend the traditional PAC model to a) distribution-dependent learning rates, and b) learning rates under data-dependent assumptions. First, we consider the universal learning setting (Bousquet, Hanneke, Moran, van Handel and Yehudayoff, STOC'21), for which we provide a complete characterization of the achievable learning rates that holds for every fixed distribution. In particular, we show the following trichotomy: for any concept class, the optimal learning rate is either exponential, linear or arbitrarily slow. Additionally, we provide complexity measures of the underlying hypothesis class that characterize when these rates occur.