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Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility

Allison, David M., Herzog, Stephen

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A robust nonproliferation regime has contained the spread of nuclear weapons to just nine states. Yet, emerging and disruptive technologies are reshaping the landscape of nuclear risks, presenting a critical juncture for decision makers. This article lays out the contours of an overlooked but intensifying technological arms race for nuclear (in)visibility, driven by the interplay between proliferation-enabling technologies (PETs) and detection-enhancing technologies (DETs). We argue that the strategic pattern of proliferation will be increasingly shaped by the innovation pace in these domains. Artificial intelligence (AI) introduces unprecedented complexity to this equation, as its rapid scaling and knowledge substitution capabilities accelerate PET development and challenge traditional monitoring and verification methods. To analyze this dynamic, we develop a formal model centered on a Relative Advantage Index (RAI), quantifying the shifting balance between PETs and DETs. Our model explores how asymmetric technological advancement, particularly logistic AI-driven PET growth versus stepwise DET improvements, expands the band of uncertainty surrounding proliferation detectability. Through replicable scenario-based simulations, we evaluate the impact of varying PET growth rates and DET investment strategies on cumulative nuclear breakout risk. We identify a strategic fork ahead, where detection may no longer suffice without broader PET governance. Governments and international organizations should accordingly invest in policies and tools agile enough to keep pace with tomorrow's technology.


Google is still aiming for its "moonshot" 2030 energy goals

MIT Technology Review

Google is still aiming for its "moonshot" 2030 energy goals The company's electricity demand has doubled since 2020, making its end-of-decade target more of a challenge. Last week, we hosted EmTech MIT, MIT Technology Review's annual flagship conference in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Over the course of three days of main-stage sessions, I learned about innovations in AI, biotech, and robotics. But as you might imagine, some of this climate reporter's favorite moments came in the climate sessions. I was listening especially closely to my colleague James Temple's discussion with Lucia Tian, head of advanced energy technologies at Google. They spoke about the tech giant's growing energy demand and what sort of technologies the company is looking to to help meet it.


Four Chinese AI startups to watch beyond DeepSeek

MIT Technology Review

An elite group of companies known as the "Six Tigers"--Stepfun, Zhipu, Minimax, Moonshot, 01.AI, and Baichuan--are generally considered to be at the forefront of China's AI sector. But alongside them, research-focused firms like DeepSeek and ModelBest continue to grow in influence. Some, such as Minimax and Moonshot, are giving up on costly foundational model training to hone in on building consumer-facing applications on top of others' models. Others, like Stepfun and Infinigence AI, are doubling down on research, driven in part by US semiconductor restrictions. We have identified these four Chinese AI companies as the ones to watch.


ChatHouseDiffusion: Prompt-Guided Generation and Editing of Floor Plans

Qin, Sizhong, He, Chengyu, Chen, Qiaoyun, Yang, Sen, Liao, Wenjie, Gu, Yi, Lu, Xinzheng

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The generation and editing of floor plans are critical in architectural planning, requiring a high degree of flexibility and efficiency. Existing methods demand extensive input information and lack the capability for interactive adaptation to user modifications. This paper introduces ChatHouseDiffusion, which leverages large language models (LLMs) to interpret natural language input, employs graphormer to encode topological relationships, and uses diffusion models to flexibly generate and edit floor plans. This approach allows iterative design adjustments based on user ideas, significantly enhancing design efficiency. Compared to existing models, ChatHouseDiffusion achieves higher Intersection over Union (IoU) scores, permitting precise, localized adjustments without the need for complete redesigns, thus offering greater practicality. Experiments demonstrate that our model not only strictly adheres to user specifications but also facilitates a more intuitive design process through its interactive capabilities.


Inside Google's 7-Year Mission to Give AI a Robot Body

WIRED

It was early January 2016, and I had just joined Google X, Alphabet's secret innovation lab. My job: help figure out what to do with the employees and technology left over from nine robot companies that Google had acquired. Andy "the father of Android" Rubin, who had previously been in charge, had suddenly left under mysterious circumstances. Larry Page and Sergey Brin kept trying to offer guidance and direction during occasional flybys in their "spare time." Astro Teller, the head of Google X, had agreed a few months earlier to bring all the robot people into the lab, affectionately referred to as the moonshot factory.


AI drive brings Microsoft's 'green moonshot' down to earth in west London

The Guardian

If you want evidence of Microsoft's progress towards its environmental "moonshot" goal, then look closer to earth: at a building site on a west London industrial estate. The company's Park Royal datacentre is part of its commitment to drive the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI), but that ambition is jarring with its target of being carbon negative by 2030. Microsoft says the centre will be run fully on renewable energy. However, the construction of datacentres and the servers they are filled with means that the company's scope 3 emissions – such as CO2 related to the materials in its buildings and the electricity people consume when using products such as Xbox – are more than 30% above their 2020 level. As a result, the company is exceeding its overall emissions target by roughly the same rate.


CLAIRE and euRobotics join forces on European AI "moonshot" proposal

AIHub

CLAIRE and euRobotics, two European non-profit organisations in the area of AI and robotics, have announced an ambitious plan to establish Europe as a powerhouse in trustworthy artificial intelligence (AI) by 2030. This "moonshot" aims to "provide European citizens, industries, and public organisations with reliable and ethical AI alternatives, creating systems aligned with European values and boosting global competitiveness. The initiative calls for a pan-European effort, pooling talent and resources to overcome the current technological dependency on non-European big tech firms". According to Chair of the Board of CLAIRE directors, Holger Hoos, "Europe has a storied history of rising to technological challenges and emerging with global solutions. From CERN to the European Space Agency, we've turned collaboration into innovation. Now, as AI begins to permeate every aspect of our work and lives, it's imperative we forge our own path, ensuring the broad availability of trustworthy AI systems with European values at their core."


Can the UK's new ARIA science agency deliver 'moonshot' technologies?

New Scientist

The UK's Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA) has chosen eight scientists who will each be given up to £50 million to allocate as they see fit, in the hopes that a high-risk, high-reward approach to research funding will deliver results that benefit UK society and fuel economic growth. ARIA is the brainchild of Dominic Cummings, an adviser to former UK prime minister Boris Johnson who has long wanted to shake up UK science funding. "A small group of people can make a huge breakthrough with little money but the right structure, the right ways of thinking," Cummings wrote in 2017. He was inspired by the US's Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA), which spurred computer science as a discipline and created a forerunner of the internet in the 1960s and 1970s. It did this, in the words of one of its leading scientists, by having "visions rather than goals" and because it "funded people, not projects".


How Washington can help our moonshot against cancer become a reality

FOX News

Almost every single one of us is impacted by cancer. For one of us, it happened right after taking office as governor of Maryland. Just six months into the job of a lifetime, I was diagnosed with a very advanced and very aggressive form of cancer. As I took on this challenge and governed my state from a hospital bed, I had the fortune of meeting so many incredible people who were going through much tougher battles than mine. For the other one of us, cancer struck when it took the life of my best friend and former chief of staff far too soon.


DeepL, the AI-based language translator, raises over $100M at a $1B+ valuation • TechCrunch

#artificialintelligence

Artificial intelligence startups, and (thanks to GPT and Open AI) specifically those helping humans communicate with each other, are commanding a lot of interest from investors, and today the latest of these is announcing a big round of funding. DeepL, a startup that provides instant translation-as-a-service both to businesses and to individuals -- competing with Google, Bing and other online tools -- has confirmed a fundraise at a €1 billion valuation (just over $1 billion at today's rates). Cologne, Germany-based DeepL is not disclosing the full amount that it's raised -- it doesn't want to focus on this aspect, CEO and founder Jaroslaw Kutylowski said in an interview -- but as we were working on this story we heard a range of figures. At one end, an investor that was pitched on the funding told TechCrunch that DeepL was aiming to raise $125 million. At the other end, a report with a rumor about the funding from back in November said the amount was around $100 million.