Foraging for resources is a ubiquitous activity conducted by living organisms in a shared environment to maintain their homeostasis. Modelling multi-agent foraging in-silico allows us to study both individual and collective emergent behaviour in a tractable manner. Agent-based modelling has proven to be effective in simulating such tasks, though scaling the simulations to accommodate large numbers of agents with complex dynamics remains challenging. In this work, we present Foragax, a general-purpose, scalable, hardware-accelerated, multi-agent foraging toolkit. Leveraging the JAX library, our toolkit can simulate thousands of agents foraging in a common environment, in an end-to-end vectorized and differentiable manner. The toolkit provides agent-based modelling tools to model various foraging tasks, including options to design custom spatial and temporal agent dynamics, control policies, sensor models, and boundary conditions. Further, the number of agents during such simulations can be increased or decreased based on custom rules. While applied to foraging, the toolkit can also be used to model and simulate a wide range of other multi-agent scenarios.

The developments that language models have provided in fulfilling almost all kinds of tasks have attracted the attention of not only researchers but also the society and have enabled them to become products. There are commercially successful language models available. However, users may prefer open-source language models due to cost, data privacy, or regulations. Yet, despite the increasing number of these models, there is no comprehensive comparison of their performance for Turkish. This study aims to fill this gap in the literature. A comparison is made among seven selected language models based on their contextual learning and question-answering abilities. Turkish datasets for contextual learning and question-answering were prepared, and both automatic and human evaluations were conducted. The results show that for question-answering, continuing pretraining before fine-tuning with instructional datasets is more successful in adapting multilingual models to Turkish and that in-context learning performances do not much related to question-answering performances.

COVID-19 appeared abruptly in early 2020, requiring a rapid response amid a context of great uncertainty. Good quality data and knowledge was initially lacking, and many early models had to be developed with causal assumptions and estimations built in to supplement limited data, often with no reliable approach for identifying, validating and documenting these causal assumptions. Our team embarked on a knowledge engineering process to develop a causal knowledge base consisting of several causal BNs for diverse aspects of COVID-19. The unique challenges of the setting lead to experiments with the elicitation approach, and what emerged was a knowledge engineering method we call Causal Knowledge Engineering (CKE). The CKE provides a structured approach for building a causal knowledge base that can support the development of a variety of application-specific models. Here we describe the CKE method, and use our COVID-19 work as a case study to provide a detailed discussion and analysis of the method.

The typical phases of Bayesian network (BN) structured development include specification of purpose and scope, structure development, parameterisation and validation. Structure development is typically focused on qualitative issues and parameterisation quantitative issues, however there are qualitative and quantitative issues that arise in both phases. A common step that occurs after the initial structure has been developed is to perform a rough parameterisation that only captures and illustrates the intended qualitative behaviour of the model. This is done prior to a more rigorous parameterisation, ensuring that the structure is fit for purpose, as well as supporting later development and validation. In our collective experience and in discussions with other modellers, this step is an important part of the development process, but is under-reported in the literature. Since the practice focuses on qualitative issues, despite being quantitative in nature, we call this step qualitative parameterisation and provide an outline of its role in the BN development process.

Whether and how data scientists, statisticians and modellers should be accountable for the AI systems they develop remains a controversial and highly debated topic, especially given the complexity of AI systems and the difficulties in comparing and synthesising competing claims arising from their deployment for data analysis. This paper proposes to address this issue by decreasing the opacity and heightening the accountability of decision making using AI systems, through the explicit acknowledgement of the statistical foundations that underpin their development and the ways in which these dictate how their results should be interpreted and acted upon by users. In turn, this enhances (1) the responsiveness of the models to feedback, (2) the quality and meaning of uncertainty on their outputs and (3) their transparency to evaluation. To exemplify this approach, we extend Posterior Belief Assessment to offer a route to belief ownership from complex and competing AI structures. We argue that this is a significant way to bring ethical considerations into mathematical reasoning, and to implement ethical AI in statistical practice. We demonstrate these ideas within the context of competing models used to advise the UK government on the spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 during December 2021.

In order to model criminal networks for law enforcement purposes, a limited supply of data needs to be translated into validated agent-based models. What is missing in current criminological modelling is a systematic and transparent framework for modelers and domain experts that establishes a modelling procedure for computational criminal modelling that includes translating qualitative data into quantitative rules. For this, we propose FREIDA (Framework for Expert-Informed Data-driven Agent-based models). Throughout the paper, the criminal cocaine replacement model (CCRM) will be used as an example case to demonstrate the FREIDA methodology. For the CCRM, a criminal cocaine network in the Netherlands is being modelled where the kingpin node is being removed, the goal being for the remaining agents to reorganize after the disruption and return the network into a stable state. Qualitative data sources such as case files, literature and interviews are translated into empirical laws, and combined with the quantitative sources such as databases form the three dimensions (environment, agents, behaviour) of a networked ABM. Four case files are being modelled and scored both for training as well as for validation scores to transition to the computational model and application phase respectively. In the last phase, iterative sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification and scenario testing eventually lead to a robust model that can help law enforcement plan their intervention strategies. Results indicate the need for flexible parameters as well as additional case file simulations to be performed.

Gaussian Processes (GPs) offer an attractive method for regression over small, structured and correlated datasets. However, their deployment is hindered by computational costs and limited guidelines on how to apply GPs beyond simple low-dimensional datasets. We propose a framework to identify the suitability of GPs to a given problem and how to set up a robust and well-specified GP model. The guidelines formalise the decisions of experienced GP practitioners, with an emphasis on kernel design and options for computational scalability. The framework is then applied to a case study of glacier elevation change yielding more accurate results at test time.

In a classic case of "be careful what you search for," reading a couple of online articles on model hyper-parameter optimisation has lead to my news feed being bombarded with how-to guides guaranteeing "the most powerful model possible" "in a few easy steps." What I do notice however, is that few articles actually mention that hyper-parameter tuning is only part of the process and is not a silver bullet solution for predictive power. Even fewer articles mention that gains in predictive power from hyper-parameter optimisation are modest and are likely less than gains from decent feature engineering. LightGBM is a gradient boosting framework which uses tree-based learning algorithms. It is an example of an ensemble technique which combines weak individual models to form a single accurate model.

Our routines play an important role in a wide range of social challenges such as climate change, disease outbreaks and coordinating staff and patients in a hospital. To use agent-based simulations (ABS) to understand the role of routines in social challenges we need an agent framework that integrates routines. This paper provides the domain-independent Social Practice Agent (SoPrA) framework that satisfies requirements from the literature to simulate our routines. By choosing the appropriate concepts from the literature on agent theory, social psychology and social practice theory we ensure SoPrA correctly depicts current evidence on routines. By creating a consistent, modular and parsimonious framework suitable for multiple domains we enhance the usability of SoPrA. SoPrA provides ABS researchers with a conceptual, formal and computational framework to simulate routines and gain new insights into social systems.

Mathematicians formulate complex mathematical models based on user requirements to solve a diverse range of problems in different domains. These models are, in most cases, represented through several mathematical equations and constraints. This modelling task comprises several time-intensive processes that require both mathematical expertise and (problem) domain knowledge. In an attempt to automate these processes, we have developed an ontology for Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) problems to formulate expert mathematician knowledge and in this paper, we show how this new ontology can be utilized for modelling a relatively straightforward MILP problem, a Machine Scheduling example. We also show that more complex MILP problems, such as the Asymmetric Travelling Salesman Problem (ATSP), however, are not readily amenable to simple elicitation of user requirements and the utilization of the proposed mathematical model ontology. Therefore, an automatic mathematical modelling framework is proposed for such complex MILP problems, which includes a problem (requirement) elicitation module connected to a model extraction module through a translation engine that bridges between the non-expert problem domain and the expert mathematical model domain. This framework is argued to have the necessary components to effectively tackle the automation of modelling task of the more intricate MILP problems such as the ATSP.