The multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) algorithm is an extension of the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm by selecting the proposed state among multiple trials according to some weight function. Although MTM has gained great popularity owing to its faster empirical convergence and mixing than the standard MH algorithm, its theoretical mixing property is rarely studied in the literature due to its complex proposal scheme. We prove that MTM can achieve a mixing time bound smaller than that of MH by a factor of the number of trials under a general setting applicable to high-dimensional model selection problems with discrete state spaces. Our theoretical results motivate a new class of weight functions called locally balanced weight functions and guide the choice of the number of trials, which leads to improved performance over standard MTM algorithms. We support our theoretical results by extensive simulation studies and real data applications with several Bayesian model selection problems.

Model selection is a pivotal process in the quantitative sciences, where researchers must navigate between numerous candidate models of varying complexity. Traditional information criteria, such as the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and Mallows's $\mathit{C_p}$, are valuable tools for identifying optimal models. However, the exponential increase in candidate models with each additional model parameter renders the evaluation of these criteria for all models -- a strategy known as exhaustive, or brute-force, searches -- computationally prohibitive. Consequently, heuristic approaches like stepwise regression are commonly employed, albeit without guarantees of finding the globally-optimal model. In this study, we challenge the prevailing notion that non-monotonicity in information criteria precludes bounds on the search space. We introduce a simple but novel bound that enables the development of branch-and-bound algorithms tailored for these non-monotonic functions. We demonstrate that our approach guarantees identification of the optimal model(s) across diverse model classes, sizes, and applications, often with orders of magnitude computational speedups. For instance, in one previously-published model selection task involving $2^{32}$ (approximately 4 billion) candidate models, our method achieves a computational speedup exceeding 6,000. These findings have broad implications for the scalability and effectiveness of model selection in complex scientific domains.

The multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) algorithm is an extension of the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm by selecting the proposed state among multiple trials according to some weight function. Although MTM has gained great popularity owing to its faster empirical convergence and mixing than the standard MH algorithm, its theoretical mixing property is rarely studied in the literature due to its complex proposal scheme.

The multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) algorithm is an extension of the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm by selecting the proposed state among multiple trials according to some weight function. Although MTM has gained great popularity owing to its faster empirical convergence and mixing than the standard MH algorithm, its theoretical mixing property is rarely studied in the literature due to its complex proposal scheme. We prove that MTM can achieve a mixing time bound smaller than that of MH by a factor of the number of trials under a general setting applicable to high-dimensional model selection problems with discrete state spaces. Our theoretical results motivate a new class of weight functions called locally balanced weight functions and guide the choice of the number of trials, which leads to improved performance over standard MTM algorithms. We support our theoretical results by extensive simulation studies and real data applications with several Bayesian model selection problems.

Foundation models have recently expanded into robotics after excelling in computer vision and natural language processing. The models are accessible in two ways: open-source or paid, closed-source options. Users with access to both face a problem when deciding between effective yet costly closed-source models and free but less powerful open-source alternatives. We call it the model selection problem. Existing supervised-learning methods are impractical due to the high cost of collecting extensive training data from closed-source models. Hence, we focus on the online learning setting where algorithms learn while collecting data, eliminating the need for large pre-collected datasets. We thus formulate a user-centric online model selection problem and propose a novel solution that combines an open-source encoder to output context and an online learning algorithm that processes this context. The encoder distills vast data distributions into low-dimensional features, i.e., the context, without additional training. The online learning algorithm aims to maximize a composite reward that includes model performance, execution time, and costs based on the context extracted from the data. It results in an improved trade-off between selecting open-source and closed-source models compared to non-contextual methods, as validated by our theoretical analysis. Experiments across language-based robotic tasks such as Waymo Open Dataset, ALFRED, and Open X-Embodiment demonstrate real-world applications of the solution. The results show that the solution significantly improves the task success rate by up to 14%.

In this paper, we tackle the problem of selecting the optimal model for a given structured pattern classification dataset. In this context, a model can be understood as a classifier and a hyperparameter configuration. The proposed meta-learning approach purely relies on machine learning and involves four major steps. Firstly, we present a concise collection of 62 meta-features that address the problem of information cancellation when aggregation measure values involving positive and negative measurements. Secondly, we describe two different approaches for synthetic data generation intending to enlarge the training data. Thirdly, we fit a set of pre-defined classification models for each classification problem while optimizing their hyperparameters using grid search. The goal is to create a meta-dataset such that each row denotes a multilabel instance describing a specific problem. The features of these meta-instances denote the statistical properties of the generated datasets, while the labels encode the grid search results as binary vectors such that best-performing models are positively labeled. Finally, we tackle the model selection problem with several multilabel classifiers, including a Convolutional Neural Network designed to handle tabular data. The simulation results show that our meta-learning approach can correctly predict an optimal model for 91% of the synthetic datasets and for 87% of the real-world datasets. Furthermore, we noticed that most meta-classifiers produced better results when using our meta-features. Overall, our proposal differs from other meta-learning approaches since it tackles the algorithm selection and hyperparameter tuning problems in a single step. Toward the end, we perform a feature importance analysis to determine which statistical features drive the model selection mechanism.

Robotic perception models, such as Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), are becoming more computationally intensive and there are several models being trained with accuracy and latency trade-offs. However, modern latency accuracy trade-offs largely report mean accuracy for single-step vision tasks, but there is little work showing which model to invoke for multi-step control tasks in robotics. The key challenge in a multi-step decision making is to make use of the right models at right times to accomplish the given task. That is, the accomplishment of the task with a minimum control cost and minimum perception time is a desideratum; this is known as the model selection problem. In this work, we precisely address this problem of invoking the correct sequence of perception models for multi-step control. In other words, we provide a provably optimal solution to the model selection problem by casting it as a multi-objective optimization problem balancing the control cost and perception time. The key insight obtained from our solution is how the variance of the perception models matters (not just the mean accuracy) for multi-step decision making, and to show how to use diverse perception models as a primitive for energy-efficient robotics. Further, we demonstrate our approach on a photo-realistic drone landing simulation using visual navigation in AirSim. Using our proposed policy, we achieved 38.04% lower control cost with 79.1% less perception time than other competing benchmarks.

The model selection problem in the pure exploration linear bandit setting is introduced and studied in both the fixed confidence and fixed budget settings. The model selection problem considers a nested sequence of hypothesis classes of increasing complexities. Our goal is to automatically adapt to the instance-dependent complexity measure of the smallest hypothesis class containing the true model, rather than suffering from the complexity measure related to the largest hypothesis class. We provide evidence showing that a standard doubling trick over dimension fails to achieve the optimal instance-dependent sample complexity. Our algorithms define a new optimization problem based on experimental design that leverages the geometry of the action set to efficiently identify a near-optimal hypothesis class. Our fixed budget algorithm uses a novel application of a selection-validation trick in bandits. This provides a new method for the understudied fixed budget setting in linear bandits (even without the added challenge of model selection). We further generalize the model selection problem to the misspecified regime, adapting our algorithms in both fixed confidence and fixed budget settings.

We study a model selection problem in the linear bandit setting, where the learner must adapt to the dimension of the optimal hypothesis class on the fly and balance exploration and exploitation. More specifically, we assume a sequence of nested linear hypothesis classes with dimensions $d_1 < d_2 < \dots$, and the goal is to automatically adapt to the smallest hypothesis class that contains the true linear model. Although previous papers provide various guarantees for this model selection problem, the analysis therein either works in favorable cases when one can cheaply conduct statistical testing to locate the right hypothesis class or is based on the idea of "corralling" multiple base algorithms which often performs relatively poorly in practice. These works also mainly focus on upper bounding the regret. In this paper, we first establish a lower bound showing that, even with a fixed action set, adaptation to the unknown intrinsic dimension $d_\star$ comes at a cost: there is no algorithm that can achieve the regret bound $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{d_\star T})$ simultaneously for all values of $d_\star$. We also bring new ideas, i.e., constructing virtual mixture-arms to effectively summarize useful information, into the model selection problem in linear bandits. Under a mild assumption on the action set, we design a Pareto optimal algorithm with guarantees matching the rate in the lower bound. Experimental results confirm our theoretical results and show advantages of our algorithm compared to prior work.

We consider model selection in stochastic bandit and reinforcement learning problems. Given a set of base learning algorithms, an effective model selection strategy adapts to the best learning algorithm in an online fashion. We show that by estimating the regret of each algorithm and playing the algorithms such that all empirical regrets are ensured to be of the same order, the overall regret balancing strategy achieves a regret that is close to the regret of the optimal base algorithm. Our strategy requires an upper bound on the optimal base regret as input, and the performance of the strategy depends on the tightness of the upper bound. We show that having this prior knowledge is necessary in order to achieve a near-optimal regret. Further, we show that any near-optimal model selection strategy implicitly performs a form of regret balancing.