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Understanding, Predicting and Better Resolving Q-Value Divergence in Offline-RL
The divergence of the Q-value estimation has been a prominent issue offline reinforcement learning (offline RL), where the agent has no access to real dynamics. Traditional beliefs attribute this instability to querying out-of-distribution actions when bootstrapping value targets. Though this issue can be alleviated with policy constraints or conservative Q estimation, a theoretical understanding of the underlying mechanism causing the divergence has been absent. In this work, we aim to thoroughly comprehend this mechanism and attain an improved solution. We first identify a fundamental pattern, \emph{self-excitation}, as the primary cause of Q-value estimation divergence in offline RL.
Counterfactual Fairness by Combining Factual and Counterfactual Predictions
In high-stakes domains such as healthcare and hiring, the role of machine learning (ML) in decision-making raises significant fairness concerns. This work focuses on Counterfactual Fairness (CF), which posits that an ML model's outcome on any individual should remain unchanged if they had belonged to a different demographic group.Previous works have proposed methods that guarantee CF. Notwithstanding, their effects on the model's predictive performance remain largely unclear.To fill this gap, we provide a theoretical study on the inherent trade-off between CF and predictive performance in a model-agnostic manner. We first propose a simple but effective method to cast an optimal but potentially unfair predictor into a fair one with a minimal loss of performance.By analyzing the excess risk incurred by perfect CF, we quantify this inherent trade-off. Further analysis on our method's performance with access to only incomplete causal knowledge is also conducted. Built upon this, we propose a practical algorithm that can be applied in such scenarios. Experiments on both synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate the validity of our analysis and methods.
Pruning Neural Networks via Coresets and Convex Geometry: Towards No Assumptions
Pruning is one of the predominant approaches for compressing deep neural networks (DNNs). Lately, coresets (provable data summarizations) were leveraged for pruning DNNs, adding the advantage of theoretical guarantees on the trade-off between the compression rate and the approximation error. However, coresets in this domain were either data dependant or generated under restrictive assumptions on both the model's weights and inputs. In real-world scenarios, such assumptions are rarely satisfied, limiting the applicability of coresets. To this end, we suggest a novel and robust framework for computing such coresets under mild assumptions on the model's weights and without any assumption on the training data. The idea is to compute the importance of each neuron in each layer with respect to the output of the following layer. This is achieved by an elegant combination of L\{o}wner ellipsoid and Caratheodory theorem.Our method is simultaneously data-independent, applicable to various networks and datasets (due to the simplified assumptions), and theoretically supported. Experimental results show that our method outperforms existing coreset based neural pruning approaches across a wide range of networks and datasets. For example, our method achieved a $62\%$ compression rate on ResNet50 on ImageNet with $1.09\%$ drop in accuracy.
MaNo: Exploiting Matrix Norm for Unsupervised Accuracy Estimation Under Distribution Shifts
Leveraging the model's outputs, specifically the logits, is a common approach to estimating the test accuracy of a pre-trained neural network on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples without requiring access to the corresponding ground-truth labels.Despite their ease of implementation and computational efficiency, current logit-based methods are vulnerable to overconfidence issues, leading to prediction bias, especially under the natural shift.
Large Language Models Are Latent Variable Models: Explaining and Finding Good Demonstrations for In-Context Learning
In recent years, pre-trained large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable efficiency in achieving an inference-time few-shot learning capability known as in-context learning. However, existing literature has highlighted the sensitivity of this capability to the selection of few-shot demonstrations. Current understandings of the underlying mechanisms by which this capability arises from regular language model pretraining objectives remain disconnected from the real-world LLMs. This study aims to examine the in-context learning phenomenon through a Bayesian lens, viewing real-world LLMs as latent variable models. On this premise, we propose an algorithm to select optimal demonstrations from a set of annotated data with a small LM, and then directly generalize the selected demonstrations to larger LMs. We demonstrate significant improvement over baselines, averaged over eight GPT models on eight real-world text classification datasets. We also demonstrate the real-world usefulness of our algorithm on GSM8K, a math word problem dataset. Our empirical findings support our hypothesis that LLMs implicitly infer a latent variable containing task information.
Learning Equivariant Energy Based Models with Equivariant Stein Variational Gradient Descent
We focus on the problem of efficient sampling and learning of probability densities by incorporating symmetries in probabilistic models. We first introduce Equivariant Stein Variational Gradient Descent algorithm -- an equivariant sampling method based on Stein's identity for sampling from densities with symmetries. Equivariant SVGD explicitly incorporates symmetry information in a density through equivariant kernels which makes the resultant sampler efficient both in terms of sample complexity and the quality of generated samples. Subsequently, we define equivariant energy based models to model invariant densities that are learned using contrastive divergence. By utilizing our equivariant SVGD for training equivariant EBMs, we propose new ways of improving and scaling up training of energy based models. We apply these equivariant energy models for modelling joint densities in regression and classification tasks for image datasets, many-body particle systems and molecular structure generation.
Minimax Estimation of Conditional Moment Models
We develop an approach for estimating models described via conditional moment restrictions, with a prototypical application being non-parametric instrumental variable regression. We introduce a min-max criterion function, under which the estimation problem can be thought of as solving a zero-sum game between a modeler who is optimizing over the hypothesis space of the target model and an adversary who identifies violating moments over a test function space. We analyze the statistical estimation rate of the resulting estimator for arbitrary hypothesis spaces, with respect to an appropriate analogue of the mean squared error metric, for ill-posed inverse problems. We show that when the minimax criterion is regularized with a second moment penalty on the test function and the test function space is sufficiently rich, then the estimation rate scales with the critical radius of the hypothesis and test function spaces, a quantity which typically gives tight fast rates. Our main result follows from a novel localized Rademacher analysis of statistical learning problems defined via minimax objectives. We provide applications of our main results for several hypothesis spaces used in practice such as: reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, high dimensional sparse linear functions, spaces defined via shape constraints, ensemble estimators such as random forests, and neural networks. For each of these applications we provide computationally efficient optimization methods for solving the corresponding minimax problem (e.g.