Discrete diffusion models are often trained through clean-data prediction, but the prediction can be used in different ways to define the reverse dynamics. In Masked Diffusion Models (MDM) these choices largely coincide, whereas in Uniform Diffusion Models (UDM) they do not. We show that the standard plug-in bridge parameterization for UDM is not optimized by the denoising posterior, but by a leave-one-out posterior that predicts each clean token without using its own noisy observation. This identifies a mismatch between the plug-in ELBO and the usual cross-entropy denoising objective. We characterize the leave-one-out target and derive exact conversions between the denoiser, the leave-one-out posterior, and the score. These conversions allow us to disentangle parameterization and training objective. Our results also lead to inference improvements without any additional training through an informed predictor-corrector sampler and improved temperature sampling based on the leave-one-out predictor. We further introduce an absorbing-state reformulation of uniform diffusion that preserves the UDM joint law while decomposing it into masked-diffusion-like sampling operations, with simpler denoising posteriors, carry-over unmasking, and a natural remasking mechanism. On language modeling, leave-one-out parameterizations consistently improve UDM generation, while the absorbing construction matches or surpasses masked diffusion. These results suggest that the empirical gap between masked and uniform diffusion is driven less by the choice of marginals themselves than by parameterization and sampling design. The code and models can be found at https://github.com/samsongourevitch/rev_udm.

We study the multi-task linear regression problem in the presence of contaminated tasks. We address the setting where the unknown parameters of a majority of tasks are close in the $\ell_2$-norm, while a fraction of tasks are arbitrary outliers. Existing theoretical frameworks for this problem rely heavily on the assumption that the empirical second moment of each task has a minimum eigenvalue bounded away from zero (order $Ω(1)$). Crucially, this assumption fails in many high-dimensional scenarios, rendering prior guarantees vacuous. To overcome this limitation, we propose an estimator based on matrix-weighted norm regularization. We also introduce a relative balancedness condition, quantified by a balancedness constant, that compares each task's second moment with the average inlier geometry and relaxes the need for taskwise second-moment lower bounds. In favorable regimes with moderate balancedness, our prediction MSE bounds match the rate of Duan and Wang (2023) under substantially weaker spectral assumptions; the resulting task-overall MSE is minimax optimal up to logarithmic factors. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our estimator enjoys a safety guarantee: when the relevant balancedness constant is large or infinite, or when tasks are unrelated, the method performs no worse than independent task learning. Consequently, our methodology achieves simultaneous adaptivity to task similarity, robustness to outliers, and safety outside favorable transfer regimes.

We study the minimization of non-convex functionals over the Wasserstein space. While recent work has showed that perturbed Wasserstein gradient methods can avoid saddle points for benign landscapes, existing approaches remain essentially first-order and do not provide fast local convergence once the iterates enter a neighborhood of a global minimizer. We propose Wasserstein Saddle-Free Newton (WSFN), a second-order method that preconditions the Wasserstein gradient by a regularized square root of the squared Wasserstein Hessian. This construction preserves attraction toward directions of positive curvature while inducing repulsion along directions of negative curvature, thereby overcoming the tendency of standard Wasserstein Newton dynamics to be attracted to saddles. We also establish second-order sufficient optimality conditions on Wasserstein space for strict local minimality. Under regularity and benign landscape assumptions, we prove that WSFN escapes saddle regions and reaches an $α$-neighborhood of a global minimizer in polynomial time, with improved dependence on saddle parameters compared with prior perturbed first-order methods. Once inside this neighborhood, we show that WSFN converges linearly in $L^2$-Wasserstein distance to a non-degenerate global minimizer. Finally, we present a particle-based implementation of the method.

We study attention mechanisms through the lens of a canonical unsupervised problem: principal component analysis (PCA). We show that, when trained on Gaussian data, both softmax and linear attention layers learn parameters that align with the principal eigenvectors of the covariance matrix, thereby establishing a direct and explicit connection with PCA. Our analysis covers both finite and infinite prompt regimes. In the infinite-prompt limit, we prove convergence to globally optimal solutions aligned with the leading spectral direction, while in the finiteprompt setting we show that the same behavior emerges up to sampling effects. We further extend the analysis to an in-context setting with spiked Wishart covariances, where attention successfully recovers the underlying signal direction. These results demonstrate that attention inherently performs PCA-like computations under unsupervised objectives, providing a theoretical foundation for its representation-learning capabilities.

Learning of continuous exponential family distributions with unbounded support remains an important area of research for both theory and applications in high-dimensional statistics. In recent years, score matching has become a widely used method for learning exponential families with continuous variables due to its computational ease when compared against maximum likelihood estimation. However, theoretical understanding of the statistical properties of score matching is still lacking. In this work, we provide a non-asymptotic sample complexity analysis for learning the structure of exponential families of polynomials with score matching. The derived sample bounds show a polynomial dependence on the model dimension. These bounds are the first of its kind, as all prior work has shown only asymptotic bounds on the sample complexity.

Post-deployment monitoring of healthcare AI requires statistically valid, label-efficient methods, but gold-standard labels from clinician chart review are expensive. Prediction-powered inference (PPI) and active statistical inference (ASI) reduce label cost by combining a small labeled sample with abundant model predictions, but both are restricted to a single predictor, a poor fit for modern clinical pipelines that have multiple predictors of differing cost and accuracy available at inference time. We propose Active Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference (AM-PPI), which routes each instance to a cost-appropriate predictor subset, samples gold-standard labels in proportion to the chosen subset's residual uncertainty, and reweights predictions to minimize estimator variance, all under a single deployment-time budget. AM-PPI generalizes ASI to leverage multiple predictors and extends Multiple-PPI from global per-predictor allocation to per-instance adaptive routing. We derive closed-form Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions for all three decisions and prove, via biconvexity and strong duality, that the resulting fixed point is a global optimum despite the joint problem being non-jointly-convex. We establish asymptotic normality with valid coverage, minimum-variance unbiasedness within the linear-prediction augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) class, and a closed-form criterion identifying when multiple predictors help. On synthetic data and three healthcare monitoring tasks, AM-PPI produces 10 to 40 percent narrower confidence intervals (CIs) than single-predictor ASI in the budget regime where routing matters, and matches the better baseline elsewhere.

We design Local LMO - a new projection-free gradient-type method for constrained optimization. The key algorithmic idea is to replace the global linear minimization oracle over the constraint set used by Frank-Wolfe (FW) with a local linear minimization oracle over the intersection of the constraint set and a "small" ball centered at the current iterate. In particular, when minimizing $f:\mathbb{R}^d\to \mathbb{R}$ over a constraint $\emptyset\neq\mathcal{X}\subseteq\mathbb{R}^d$, Local LMO performs the iteration \[x_{k+1}\in \arg\min_{z\in\mathcal{X}\cap\mathcal{B}(x_{k},t_k)}\langle\nabla f(x_{k}), z \rangle,\] where $x_0\in\mathcal{X}$, and $t_k>0$ is a suitably chosen radius which can be interpreted as an effective stepsize. While designed as an alternative to FW, Local LMO is perhaps best viewed as a generalization of Gradient Descent (GD) rather than a modification of FW. Indeed, it is easy to see that Local LMO reduces to GD in the unconstrained setting and, more generally, to GD restricted to an affine subspace if the constraint $\mathcal{X}$ is affine. We prove that this simple algorithmic scheme transfers the known (unaccelerated) convergence rates of Projected Gradient Descent (PGD) to the projection-free world in several important regimes, some of which are beyond the reach of FW. In contrast to FW theory, i) our guarantees hold without requiring the feasible set $\mathcal{X}$ to be bounded, ii) our theory does not require the "curvature" assumption, which allows us to establish a standard sublinear rate for convex functions with bounded gradients, iii) we obtain a linear rate in the smooth strongly convex regime. Furthermore, we obtain sharp sublinear rates in the smooth convex and non-convex regimes, in the $(L_0,L_1)$-smooth convex regime, and in stochastic and non-differentiable settings.

Deep learning systems are known to exhibit implicit regularization (alt. implicit bias), favoring simple solutions instead of merely minimizing the loss function. In some cases, we can analytically derive the implicit regularization -- connecting it to an equivalent penalty that augments the learning objective. However, modern deep learning systems are complex, carrying modifications to the training procedure and architecture (e.g. early stopping, minibatching, dropout) whose effects are not always directly interpretable. Although estimating the resulting implicit regularization could aid theorists in algorithm design and practitioners in interpreting their hyperparameter choices, this problem has received little direct attention. It is also tractable: regularization makes weight updates deviate from loss gradients, promising a signal for identifying implicit bias. Here we provide gradient matching methods that can be used to empirically estimate the implicit regularization. Our method works on networks with known regularization, recovering popular explicit penalties like $\ell_1$ and $\ell_2$. It also replicates known implicit effects, like the quadratic weight penalty induced by early stopping in gradient descent, demonstrating that it can be used to test theories of implicit regularization. Crucially, because our method is empirical, it can handle implicit regularization in arbitrary networks. We demonstrate this use by characterizing the effects of dropout in deep networks, showing implicit $\ell_2$ effects in this popular method. Our work shows that practitioners can use gradient matching to understand regularization in networks with implicit biases that are too complicated to derive analytically.

Nonconvex methods have emerged as a dominant approach for low-rank matrix estimation, a problem that arises widely in machine learning and AI for learning and representing high-dimensional data. Existing analyses for these methods often require additional regularization to mitigate nonconvexity, even though such regularization is often unnecessary in practice. Moreover, most analyses rely on problem-specific arguments that are difficult to generalize to more complex settings. In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework for studying nonconvex procedures across a broad class of low-rank matrix estimation problems. Rather than focusing on a specific model, we reveal a fundamental mechanism that explains why nonconvex procedures can behave well in low-rank estimation. Our key device is a {\it benign regularizer} that does not alter the original update rule, but yields an equivalent locally strongly convex formulation of the algorithm. This perspective uncovers a disguised convexity inherent in the nonconvex procedure and provides a new route to theoretical guarantees for nonconvex low-rank matrix estimation.

How many key-value associations can a $d\times d$ linear memory store? We show that the answer depends not only on the $d^2$ degrees of freedom in the memory matrix, but also on the retrieval criterion. In an isotropic Gaussian model for the stored pairs, we show that top-1 retrieval, where every signal must beat its largest distractor, requires the logarithmic model-size scale $d^2\asymp n\log n$. We prove that the correlation matrix memory construction, which stores associations by superposing key-target outer products, achieves this scale through a sharp phase transition, and that the same scaling is necessary for any linear memory. Thus the logarithm is the intrinsic extreme-value price of winner-take-all decoding. We next consider listwise retrieval, where the correct target need not be the unique top-scoring item but should remain among the strongest candidates. To formalize this regime, we propose the Tail-Average Margin (TAM), a convex upper-tail criterion that certifies inclusion of the correct target in a controlled candidate list. Under this listwise retrieval criterion, the capacity follows the quadratic scale $d^2\asymp n$. At load $n/d^2\toα$, we develop an exact asymptotic theory for the TAM empirical-risk minimizer through a two-parameter scalar variational principle. The theory has a rich phenomenology: in the ridgeless limit it yields a closed-form critical load separating satisfiable and unsatisfiable phases, and it predicts the limiting laws of true scores, competitor scores, margins, and percentile profiles. Finally, a small-tail extrapolation further leads to the conjectural sharp top-1 threshold $d^2\sim 2n\log n$.