When approximating an intractable density via variational inference (VI) the variational family is typically chosen as a simple parametric family that very likely does not contain the target. This raises the question: Under which conditions can we recover characteristics of the target despite misspecification? In this work, we extend previous results on robust VI with location-scale families under target symmetries. We derive sufficient conditions guaranteeing exact recovery of the mean when using the forward Kullback-Leibler divergence and $α$-divergences. We further show how and why optimization can fail to recover the target mean in the absence of our sufficient conditions, providing initial guidelines on the choice of the variational family and $α$-value.

We study phase transitions for repulsive-attractive mean-field free energies on the circle. For a $\frac{1}{n+1}$-periodic interaction whose Fourier coefficients satisfy a certain decay condition, we prove that the critical coupling strength $K_c$ coincides with the linear stability threshold $K_\#$ of the uniform distribution and that the phase transition is continuous, in the sense that the uniform distribution is the unique global minimizer at criticality. The proof is based on a sharp coercivity estimate for the free energy obtained from the constrained Lebedev--Milin inequality. We apply this result to three motivating models for which the exact value of the phase transition and its (dis)continuity in terms of the model parameters was not fully known. For the two-dimensional Doi--Onsager model $W(θ)=-|\sin(2πθ)|$, we prove that the phase transition is continuous at $K_c=K_\#=3π/4$. For the noisy transformer model $W_β(θ)=(e^{β\cos(2πθ)}-1)/β$, we identify the sharp threshold $β_*$ such that $K_c(β) = K_\#(β)$ and the phase transition is continuous for $β\leq β_*$, while $K_c(β) β_*$. We also obtain the corresponding sharp dichotomy for the noisy Hegselmann--Krause model $W_{R}(θ) = (R-2π|θ|)_{+}^2$ .

Davis, Drusvyatskiy, and Jiang showed that gradient descent with an adaptive stepsize converges locally at a nearly-linear rate for smooth functions that grow at least quartically away from their minimizers. The argument is intricate, relying on monitoring the performance of the algorithm relative to a certain manifold of slow growth -- called the ravine. In this work, we provide a direct Lyapunov-based argument that bypasses these difficulties when the objective is in addition convex and a has a unique minimizer. As a byproduct of the argument, we obtain a more adaptive variant than the original algorithm with encouraging numerical performance.

As generative models enable rapid creation of high-fidelity images, societal concerns about misinformation and authenticity have intensified. A promising remedy is multi-bit image watermarking, which embeds a multi-bit message into an image so that a verifier can later detect whether the image is generated by someone and further identify the source by decoding the embedded message. Existing approaches often fall short in capacity, resilience to common image distortions, and theoretical justification. To address these limitations, we propose ADD (Add, Dot, Decode), a multi-bit image watermarking method with two stages: learning a watermark to be linearly combined with the multi-bit message and added to the image, and decoding through inner products between the watermarked image and the learned watermark. On the standard MS-COCO benchmark, we demonstrate that for the challenging task of 48-bit watermarking, ADD achieves 100\% decoding accuracy, with performance dropping by at most 2\% under a wide range of image distortions, substantially smaller than the 14\% average drop of state-of-the-art methods. In addition, ADD achieves substantial computational gains, with 2-fold faster embedding and 7.4-fold faster decoding than the fastest existing method. We further provide a theoretical analysis explaining why the learned watermark and the corresponding decoding rule are effective.

We study stochastic convex optimization (SCO) with heavy-tailed gradients under pure epsilon-differential privacy (DP). Instead of assuming a bound on the worst-case Lipschitz parameter of the loss, we assume only a bounded k-th moment. This assumption allows for unbounded, heavy-tailed stochastic gradient distributions, and can yield sharper excess risk bounds. The minimax optimal rate for approximate (epsilon, delta)-DP SCO is known in this setting, but the pure epsilon-DP case has remained open. We characterize the minimax optimal excess-risk rate for pure epsilon-DP heavy-tailed SCO up to logarithmic factors. Our algorithm achieves this rate in polynomial time with high probability. Moreover, it runs in polynomial time with probability 1 when the worst-case Lipschitz parameter is polynomially bounded. For important structured problem classes - including hinge/ReLU-type and absolute-value losses on Euclidean balls, ellipsoids, and polytopes - we achieve the same excess-risk guarantee in polynomial time with probability 1 even when the worst-case Lipschitz parameter is infinite. Our approach is based on a novel framework for privately optimizing Lipschitz extensions of the empirical loss. We complement our excess risk upper bound with a novel high probability lower bound.

Self-supervised pre-training, where large corpora of unlabeled data are used to learn representations for downstream fine-tuning, has become a cornerstone of modern machine learning. While a growing body of theoretical work has begun to analyze this paradigm, existing bounds leave open the question of how sharp the current rates are, and whether they accurately capture the complex interaction between pre-training and fine-tuning. In this paper, we address this gap by developing an asymptotic theory of pre-training via two-stage M-estimation. A key challenge is that the pre-training estimator is often identifiable only up to a group symmetry, a feature common in representation learning that requires careful treatment. We address this issue using tools from Riemannian geometry to study the intrinsic parameters of the pre-training representation, which we link with the downstream predictor through a notion of orbit-invariance, precisely characterizing the limiting distribution of the downstream test risk. We apply our main result to several case studies, including spectral pre-training, factor models, and Gaussian mixture models, and obtain substantial improvements in problem-specific factors over prior art when applicable.

We study the unconstrained minimization of a smooth and strongly convex population loss function under a stochastic oracle that introduces both additive and multiplicative noise; this is a canonical and widely-studied setting that arises across operations research, signal processing, and machine learning. We begin by showing that standard approaches such as sample average approximation and robust (or averaged) stochastic approximation can lead to suboptimal -- and in some cases arbitrarily poor -- performance with realistic finite sample sizes. In contrast, we demonstrate that a carefully designed variance reduction strategy, which we term VISOR for short, can significantly outperform these approaches while using the same sample size. Our upper bounds are complemented by finite-sample, information-theoretic local minimax lower bounds, which highlight fundamental, instance-dependent factors that govern the performance of any estimator. Taken together, these results demonstrate that an accelerated variant of VISOR is instance-optimal, achieving the best possible sample complexity up to logarithmic factors while also attaining optimal oracle complexity. We apply our theory to generalized linear models and improve upon classical results. In particular, we obtain the best-known non-asymptotic, instance-dependent generalization error bounds for stochastic methods, even in linear regression.

Data unfolding -- the removal of noise or artifacts from measurements -- is a fundamental task across the experimental sciences. Of particular interest in the present work are applications of data unfolding in physics, in which context the dominant approach is RichardsonLucy (RL) deconvolution. The classical RL approach aims to find denoised data that, once passed through the noise model, is as close as possible to the measured data, in terms of Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. Fundamental to this approach is the hypothesis that the support of the measured data overlaps with the output of the noise model, so that the KL divergence correctly captures their similarity. In practice, this hypothesis is typically enforced by binning the measured data and noise model, introducing numerical error into the unfolding process. As a counterpoint to classical binned methods for unfolding, the present work studies an alternative formulation of the unfolding problem, using a Wasserstein loss instead of the KL divergence to quantify the similarity between the measured data and the output of the noise model. We establish sharp conditions for existence and uniqueness of optimizers; as a consequence we answer open questions of Li, et al. [23], regarding necessary conditions for existence and uniqueness in the case of transport map noise models. Following these theoretical results, we then develop a provably convergent generalized Sinkhorn algorithm to compute approximate optimizers. Our algorithm requires only empirical observations of the noise model and measured data and scales with the size of the data, rather than the ambient dimension.

We derive the asymptotic risk function of regularized empirical risk minimization (ERM) estimators tuned by $n$-fold cross-validation (CV). The out-of-sample prediction loss of such estimators converges in distribution to the squared-error loss (risk function) of shrinkage estimators in the normal means model, tuned by Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE). This risk function provides a more fine-grained picture of predictive performance than uniform bounds on worst-case regret, which are common in learning theory: it quantifies how risk varies with the true parameter. As key intermediate steps, we show that (i) $n$-fold CV converges uniformly to SURE, and (ii) while SURE typically has multiple local minima, its global minimum is generically well separated. Well-separation ensures that uniform convergence of CV to SURE translates into convergence of the tuning parameter chosen by CV to that chosen by SURE.

The Hard Thresholding Pursuit (HTP) is a class of truncated gradient descent methods for finding sparse solutions of $\ell_0$-constrained loss minimization problems. The HTP-style methods have been shown to have strong approximation guarantee and impressive numerical performance in high dimensional statistical learning applications. However, the current theoretical treatment of these methods has traditionally been restricted to the analysis of parameter estimation consistency. It remains an open problem to analyze the support recovery performance (a.k.a., sparsistency) of this type of methods for recovering the global minimizer of the original NP-hard problem. In this paper, we bridge this gap by showing, for the first time, that exact recovery of the global sparse minimizer is possible for HTP-style methods under restricted strong condition number bounding conditions. We further show that HTP-style methods are able to recover the support of certain relaxed sparse solutions without assuming bounded restricted strong condition number. Numerical results on simulated data confirms our theoretical predictions.