We study trajectory forecasting under squared loss for time series with weak conditional structure, using highly expressive prediction models. Building on the classical characterization of squared-loss risk minimization, we emphasize regimes in which the conditional expectation of future trajectories is effectively degenerate, leading to trivial Bayes-optimal predictors (flat for prices and zero for returns in standard financial settings). In this regime, increased model expressivity does not improve predictive accuracy but instead introduces spurious trajectory fluctuations around the optimal predictor. These fluctuations arise from the reuse of noise and result in increased prediction variance without any reduction in bias. This provides a process-level explanation for the degradation of Transformerbased forecasts on financial time series. We complement these theoretical results with numerical experiments on high-frequency EUR/USD exchange rate data, analyzing the distribution of trajectory-level forecasting errors. The results show that Transformer-based models yield larger errors than a simple linear benchmark on a large majority of forecasting windows, consistent with the variance-driven mechanism identified by the theory.

Physical AI agents, such as robots and other embodied systems operating under tight and fluctuating resource constraints, remain far less capable than biological agents in open-ended real-world environments. This paper argues that Active Inference (AIF), grounded in the Free Energy Principle, offers a principled foundation for closing that gap. We develop this argument from first principles, following a chain from probability theory through Bayesian machine learning and variational inference to active inference and reactive message passing. From the FEP perspective, systems that maintain their structural and functional integrity over time can, under suitable assumptions, be described as minimizing variational free energy (VFE), and AIF operationalizes this by unifying perception, learning, planning, and control within a single computational objective. We show that VFE minimization is naturally realized by reactive message passing on factor graphs, where inference emerges from local, parallel computations. This realization is well matched to the constraints of physical operation, including hard deadlines, asynchronous data, fluctuating power budgets, and changing environments. Because reactive message passing is event-driven, interruptible, and locally adaptable, performance degrades gracefully under reduced resources while model structure can adjust online. We further show that, under suitable coupling and coarse-graining conditions, coupled AIF agents can be described as higher-level AIF agents, yielding a homogeneous architecture based on the same message-passing primitive across scales. Our contribution is not empirical benchmarking, but a clear theoretical and architectural case for the engineering community.

Aisasetofweightedlinear combinations of the entries ofX, this problem is often referred to as thematrix sensingproblem.

This paper aims at theoretically and empirically comparing two standard optimization criteria for Reinforcement Learning: i) maximization of the mean value and ii) minimization of the Bellman residual. For that purpose, we place ourselves in the framework of policy search algorithms, that are usually designed to maximize the mean value, and derive a method that minimizes the residual $\|T_* v_\pi - v_\pi\|_{1,\nu}$ over policies. A theoretical analysis shows how good this proxy is to policy optimization, and notably that it is better than its value-based counterpart. We also propose experiments on randomly generated generic Markov decision processes, specifically designed for studying the influence of the involved concentrability coefficient. They show that the Bellman residual is generally a bad proxy to policy optimization and that directly maximizing the mean value is much better, despite the current lack of deep theoretical analysis. This might seem obvious, as directly addressing the problem of interest is usually better, but given the prevalence of (projected) Bellman residual minimization in value-based reinforcement learning, we believe that this question is worth to be considered.

We present a novel algorithm to estimate the barycenter of arbitrary probability distributions with respect to the Sinkhorn divergence. Based on a Frank-Wolfe optimization strategy, our approach proceeds by populating the support of the barycenter incrementally, without requiring any pre-allocation.

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