minimax risk
Understanding Generalization in Physics Informed Models through Affine Variety Dimensions
Physics-informed machine learning is gaining significant traction for enhancing statistical performance and sample efficiency through the integration of physical knowledge. However, current theoretical analyses often presume complete prior knowledge in non-hybrid settings, overlooking the crucial integration of observational data, and are frequently limited to linear systems, unlike the prevalent nonlinear nature of many real-world applications. To address these limitations, we introduce a unified residual form that unifies collocation and variational methods, enabling the incorporation of incomplete and complex physical constraints in hybrid learning settings. Within this formulation, we establish that the generalization performance of physics-informed regression in such hybrid settings is governed by the dimension of the affine variety associated with the physical constraint, rather than by the number of parameters. This enables a unified analysis that is applicable to both linear and nonlinear equations. We also present a method to approximate this dimension and provide experimental validation of our theoretical findings.
Estimation of the sub-Gaussian parameter
Liu, Jason, Xu, Min, Xing, Jinchuan
The sub-Gaussian parameter (also called the variance proxy) of a mean-zero random variable $X$ is defined as $ฮพ^2_* = \sup_{ฮป\in \mathbb{R}} L(ฮป)$ where $L(ฮป) = \frac{2}{ฮป^2} \log \mathbb{E} e^{ฮปX}$ is a weighted cumulant generating function. Despite the ubiquity of sub-Gaussian random variables, the estimation of $ฮพ^2_*$ has received little attention and is not yet well understood. In this work, we study a natural estimator of $ฮพ^2_*$ based on constrained maximization of the empirical analogue of $L$. We prove that the estimator is consistent bound the rates of convergence under assumptions on $L$: if $L$ has an maximizer, then our bound is $O_p(n^{-1/2 + \varepsilon})$ for any $\varepsilon > 0$; if the argmax of $L$ is also bounded, then the bound improves to $O_p(n^{-1/2})$. We show that our assumptions on $L$ are necessary by proving that the minimax risk over all sub-Gaussian distributions is $ฮฉ(1)$; imposing increasingly strong assumptions on the tail growth of $L$ yields a continuum of classes whose minimax lower bound interpolates between $ฮฉ(1/\log n)$ and $ฮฉ(1)$. Root-n rate is possible if we restrict to a subclass of distributions where $L$ attains its supremum in a bounded region, in which case our estimator is minimax optimal. If the underlying distribution is not sub-Gaussian, we show that our estimator goes to infinity with a divergence rate controlled by the tail of the distribution. Finally, we apply our estimator in a Gene Ontology (GO) enrichment study to construct p-values for a large-scale permutation test, showing that it can serve as a reliable alternative to the peaks-over-threshold approach, particularly in regimes where the peaks-over-threshold method is of uncertain validity.
Optimally taming biases in black-box models for efficient semiparametric estimation
Gu, Yihong, Yin, Qishuo, Cai, Tianxi, Fan, Jianqing
Modern semiparametric estimation often relies on flexible black-box machine learning methods to estimate nuisance functions, raising a fundamental question: how do nuisance estimation errors propagate into inference for low-dimensional target parameters? The dominant paradigm, exemplified by double machine learning (DML), yields error bounds in which nuisance estimation errors enter multiplicatively. While widely adopted, it remains unclear whether this multiplicative-rate dependence is optimal for black-box models. In this paper, we start by revisiting the partial linear model $Y = ฮผ_0(X)+T\cdotฮฒ_0+\varepsilon$ under a structure-agnostic setting, where the nuisance function $ฮผ_0$ is estimated using a generic machine learning model, with approximation error $ฮด^a_ฮผ$ and stochastic error $ฮด_ฮผ^s$. We show that the standard DML rate is not optimal in the regime where the auxiliary function $\mathbb{E}[T|X=x]$ cannot be consistently estimated. We propose a new estimator for $ฮฒ_0$ that achieves a sharper rate of $n^{-1/2}+ฮด^a_ฮผ+(ฮด_ฮผ^s)^2$ and establish a matching lower bound demonstrating its optimality. Our results reveal a new principle: the first-order stochastic error of nuisance estimation can be eliminated without imposing any additional assumptions. This also leads to a revised tuning strategy favoring under-smoothing, where $ฮด^a_ฮผ\asymp(ฮด_ฮผ^s)^2$, rather than the classical bias-variance trade-off $ฮด^a_ฮผ\asymp ฮด_ฮผ^s$. Under mild additional conditions, the estimator is asymptotically normal with minimal asymptotic variance. The proposed method extends to a broad class of semi-parametric linear functional estimation problems, including average treatment effect estimation. Our results imply that popular orthogonal score methods in semiparametric estimation with black-box nuisance learners can be substantially improved.
Blind Attacks on Machine Learners
Alex Beatson, Zhaoran Wang, Han Liu
The importance of studying the robustness of learners to malicious data is well established. While much work has been done establishing both robust estimators and effective data injection attacks when the attacker is omniscient, the ability of an attacker to provably harm learning while having access to little information is largely unstudied. We study the potential of a "blind attacker" to provably limit a learner's performance by data injection attack without observing the learner's training set or any parameter of the distribution from which it is drawn. We provide examples of simple yet effective attacks in two settings: firstly, where an "informed learner" knows the strategy chosen by the attacker, and secondly, where a "blind learner" knows only the proportion of malicious data and some family to which the malicious distribution chosen by the attacker belongs. For each attack, we analyze minimax rates of convergence and establish lower bounds on the learner's minimax risk, exhibiting limits on a learner's ability to learn under data injection attack even when the attacker is "blind".
Total Variation Classes Beyond 1d: Minimax Rates, and the Limitations of Linear Smoothers
Veeranjaneyulu Sadhanala, Yu-Xiang Wang, Ryan J. Tibshirani
We consider the problem of estimating a function defined over nlocations on a d-dimensional grid (having all side lengths equal to n1/d). When the function is constrained to have discrete total variation bounded by Cn, we derive the minimax optimal (squared) `2 estimation error rate, parametrized by n,Cn. Total variation denoising, also known as the fused lasso, is seen to be rate optimal. Several simpler estimators exist, such as Laplacian smoothing and Laplacian eigenmaps. A natural question is: can these simpler estimators perform just as well?
Information-theoretic Limits of Online Classification with Noisy Labels
We study online classification with general hypothesis classes where the true labels are determined by some function within the class, but are corrupted by stochastic noise, and the features are generated adversarially. Predictions are made using observed labels and noiseless features, while the performance is measured via minimax risk when comparing against labels. The noisy mechanism is modeled via a general noisy kernel that specifies, for any individual data point, a set of distributions from which the actual noisy label distribution is chosen. We show that minimax risk is characterized (up to a logarithmic factor of the hypothesis class size) by the of the noisy label distributions induced by the kernel, of other properties such as the means and variances of the noise. Our main technique is based on a novel reduction to an online comparison scheme of two hypotheses, along with a new version of Le Cam-Birgรฉ testing suitable for online settings. Our work provides the first comprehensive characterization of noisy online classification with guarantees that apply to the while addressing noisy observations.