Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) offer a natural probabilistic formulation for inference in deep learning models. Despite their popularity, their optimality has received limited attention through the lens of statistical decision theory. In this paper, we study decision rules induced by deep, fully connected feedforward ReLU BNNs in the normal location model under quadratic loss. We show that, for fixed prior scales, the induced Bayes decision rule is not minimax. We then propose a hyperprior on the effective output variance of the BNN prior that yields a superharmonic square-root marginal density, establishing that the resulting decision rule is simultaneously admissible and minimax. We further extend these results from the quadratic loss setting to the predictive density estimation problem with Kullback--Leibler loss. Finally, we validate our theoretical findings numerically through simulation.

Gaussian mechanism borrowed from differential privacy.

Since the VB algorithm does not depend on the unknown truth to achieve optimality, our results shed light on effective prior choices.

Shanghai-based AI startup MiniMax's CEO Yan Junjie (right) and Co-founder and COO Yun Yeyi attend the firm's listing ceremony at the Hong Kong stock exchange on Jan. 9. | AFP-JIJI Hong Kong - Investor confidence in Chinese AI startups is riding high, but obstacles to their long-term success range from U.S. export controls to the puzzle of how to become profitable. This month, two leading players in China's artificial intelligence industry, Zhipu AI and MiniMax, made dazzling debuts on the Hong Kong stock exchange. The pair are part of a wave of rapidly growing Chinese AI tigers spurred by another startup, DeepSeek, whose low-cost AI model, on par with U.S. rivals, stunned the world a year ago. In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever. By subscribing, you can help us get the story right. With your current subscription plan you can comment on stories.

We consider the problem of multiclass transductive online learning when the number of labels can be unbounded. Previous works by Ben-David et al. [1997] and Hanneke et al. [2024] only consider the case of binary and finite label spaces respectively. The latter work determined that their techniques fail to extend to the case of unbounded label spaces, and they pose the question of characterizing the optimal mistake bound for unbounded label spaces. We answer this question, by showing that a new dimension, termed the Level-constrained Littlestone dimension, characterizes online learnability in this setting. Along the way, we show that the trichotomy of possible minimax rates established by Hanneke et al. [2024] for finite label spaces in the realizable setting continues to hold even when the label space is unbounded.

We study the problem of learning in the stochastic shortest path (SSP) setting, where an agent seeks to minimize the expected cost accumulated before reaching a goal state. We design a novel model-based algorithm EB-SSP that carefully skews the empirical transitions and perturbs the empirical costs with an exploration bonus to induce an optimistic SSP problem whose associated value iteration scheme is guaranteed to converge. We prove that EB-SSP achieves the minimax regret rate $\widetilde{O}(B_{\star} \sqrt{S A K})$, where $K$ is the number of episodes, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions and $B_{\star}$ bounds the expected cumulative cost of the optimal policy from any state, thus closing the gap with the lower bound. Interestingly, EB-SSP obtains this result while being parameter-free, i.e., it does not require any prior knowledge of $B_{\star}$, nor of $T_{\star}$, which bounds the expected time-to-goal of the optimal policy from any state. Furthermore, we illustrate various cases (e.g., positive costs, or general costs when an order-accurate estimate of $T_{\star}$ is available) where the regret only contains a logarithmic dependence on $T_{\star}$, thus yielding the first (nearly) horizon-free regret bound beyond the finite-horizon MDP setting.

Gaussian mechanism borrowed from differential privacy.

The Median-of-Means (MoM) is a robust estimator widely used in machine learning that is known to be (minimax) optimal in scenarios where samples are i.i.d. In more grave scenarios, samples are contaminated by an adversary that can inspect and modify the data. Previous work has theoretically shown the suitability of the MoM estimator in certain contaminated settings. However, the (minimax) optimality of MoM and its limitations under adversarial contamination remain unknown beyond the Gaussian case. In this paper, we present upper and lower bounds for the error of MoM under adversarial contamination for multiple classes of distributions. In particular, we show that MoM is (minimax) optimal in the class of distributions with finite variance, as well as in the class of distributions with infinite variance and finite absolute $(1+r)$-th moment. We also provide lower bounds for MoM's error that match the order of the presented upper bounds, and show that MoM is sub-optimal for light-tailed distributions.

Gaussian mechanism borrowed from differential privacy.