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Order Selection in Vector Autoregression by Mean Square Information Criterion

Hellstern, Michael, Shojaie, Ali

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Vector autoregressive (VAR) processes are ubiquitously used in economics, finance, and biology. Order selection is an essential step in fitting VAR models. While many order selection methods exist, all come with weaknesses. Order selection by minimizing AIC is a popular approach but is known to consistently overestimate the true order for processes of small dimension. On the other hand, methods based on BIC or the Hannan-Quinn (HQ) criteria are shown to require large sample sizes in order to accurately estimate the order for larger-dimensional processes. We propose the mean square information criterion (MIC) based on the observation that the expected squared error loss is flat once the fitted order reaches or exceeds the true order. MIC is shown to consistently estimate the order of the process under relatively mild conditions. Our simulation results show that MIC offers better performance relative to AIC, BIC, and HQ under misspecification. This advantage is corroborated when forecasting COVID-19 outcomes in New York City. Order selection by MIC is implemented in the micvar R package available on CRAN.



Recent Advances in Medical Image Classification

Dao, Loan, Ly, Ngoc Quoc

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Medical image classification is crucial for diagnosis and treatment, benefiting significantly from advancements in artificial intelligence. The paper reviews recent progress in the field, focusing on three levels of solutions: basic, specific, and applied. It highlights advances in traditional methods using deep learning models like Convolutional Neural Networks and Vision Transformers, as well as state-of-the-art approaches with Vision Language Models. These models tackle the issue of limited labeled data, and enhance and explain predictive results through Explainable Artificial Intelligence.


An Interpretable Measure for Quantifying Predictive Dependence between Continuous Random Variables -- Extended Version

Assunção, Renato, Figueiredo, Flávio, Júnior, Francisco N. Tinoco, de Sá-Freire, Léo M., Silva, Fábio

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A fundamental task in statistical learning is quantifying the joint dependence or association between two continuous random variables. We introduce a novel, fully non-parametric measure that assesses the degree of association between continuous variables $X$ and $Y$, capable of capturing a wide range of relationships, including non-functional ones. A key advantage of this measure is its interpretability: it quantifies the expected relative loss in predictive accuracy when the distribution of $X$ is ignored in predicting $Y$. This measure is bounded within the interval [0,1] and is equal to zero if and only if $X$ and $Y$ are independent. We evaluate the performance of our measure on over 90,000 real and synthetic datasets, benchmarking it against leading alternatives. Our results demonstrate that the proposed measure provides valuable insights into underlying relationships, particularly in cases where existing methods fail to capture important dependencies.


Rethinking Transfer Learning for Medical Image Classification

Peng, Le, Liang, Hengyue, Luo, Gaoxiang, Li, Taihui, Sun, Ju

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transfer learning (TL) from pretrained deep models is a standard practice in modern medical image classification (MIC). However, what levels of features to be reused are problem-dependent, and uniformly finetuning all layers of pretrained models may be suboptimal. This insight has partly motivated the recent differential TL strategies, such as TransFusion (TF) and layer-wise finetuning (LWFT), which treat the layers in the pretrained models differentially. In this paper, we add one more strategy into this family, called TruncatedTL, which reuses and finetunes appropriate bottom layers and directly discards the remaining layers. This yields not only superior MIC performance but also compact models for efficient inference, compared to other differential TL methods. Our code is available at: https://github.com/sun-umn/TTL


On Model Explanations with Transferable Neural Pathways

Lin, Xinmiao, Bao, Wentao, Yu, Qi, Kong, Yu

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neural pathways as model explanations consist of a sparse set of neurons that provide the same level of prediction performance as the whole model. Existing methods primarily focus on accuracy and sparsity but the generated pathways may offer limited interpretability thus fall short in explaining the model behavior. In this paper, we suggest two interpretability criteria of neural pathways: (i) same-class neural pathways should primarily consist of class-relevant neurons; (ii) each instance's neural pathway sparsity should be optimally determined. To this end, we propose a Generative Class-relevant Neural Pathway (GEN-CNP) model that learns to predict the neural pathways from the target model's feature maps. We propose to learn class-relevant information from features of deep and shallow layers such that same-class neural pathways exhibit high similarity. We further impose a faithfulness criterion for GEN-CNP to generate pathways with instance-specific sparsity. We propose to transfer the class-relevant neural pathways to explain samples of the same class and show experimentally and qualitatively their faithfulness and interpretability.


Generative adversarial networks with physical sound field priors

Karakonstantis, Xenofon, Fernandez-Grande, Efren

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for the spatio-temporal reconstruction of sound fields using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). The method utilises a plane wave basis and learns the underlying statistical distributions of pressure in rooms to accurately reconstruct sound fields from a limited number of measurements. The performance of the method is evaluated using two established datasets and compared to state-of-the-art methods. The results show that the model is able to achieve an improved reconstruction performance in terms of accuracy and energy retention, particularly in the high-frequency range and when extrapolating beyond the measurement region. Furthermore, the proposed method can handle a varying number of measurement positions and configurations without sacrificing performance. The results suggest that this approach provides a promising approach to sound field reconstruction using generative models that allow for a physically informed prior to acoustics problems.


Ranking-based Argumentation Semantics Applied to Logical Argumentation (full version)

Heyninck, Jesse, Raddaoui, Badran, Straßer, Christian

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In formal argumentation, a distinction can be made between extension-based semantics, where sets of arguments are either (jointly) accepted or not, and ranking-based semantics, where grades of acceptability are assigned to arguments. Another important distinction is that between abstract approaches, that abstract away from the content of arguments, and structured approaches, that specify a method of constructing argument graphs on the basis of a knowledge base. While ranking-based semantics have been extensively applied to abstract argumentation, few work has been done on ranking-based semantics for structured argumentation. In this paper, we make a systematic investigation into the behaviour of ranking-based semantics applied to existing formalisms for structured argumentation. We show that a wide class of ranking-based semantics gives rise to so-called culpability measures, and are relatively robust to specific choices in argument construction methods.


CoCoMIC: Code Completion By Jointly Modeling In-file and Cross-file Context

Ding, Yangruibo, Wang, Zijian, Ahmad, Wasi Uddin, Ramanathan, Murali Krishna, Nallapati, Ramesh, Bhatia, Parminder, Roth, Dan, Xiang, Bing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While pre-trained language models (LM) for code have achieved great success in code completion, they generate code conditioned only on the contents within the file, i.e., in-file context, but ignore the rich semantics in other files within the same project, i.e., cross-file context, a critical source of information that is especially useful in modern modular software development. Such overlooking constrains code language models' capacity in code completion, leading to unexpected behaviors such as generating hallucinated class member functions or function calls with unexpected arguments. In this work, we develop a cross-file context finder tool, CCFINDER, that effectively locates and retrieves the most relevant cross-file context. We propose CoCoMIC, a framework that incorporates cross-file context to learn the in-file and cross-file context jointly on top of pretrained code LMs. CoCoMIC successfully improves the existing code LM with a 33.94% relative increase in exact match and a 28.69% relative increase in identifier matching for code completion when the cross-file context is provided.