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CalArena: A Large-Scale Post-Hoc Calibration Benchmark

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Reliable probability estimates are critical in many machine learning applications, yet modern classifiers are often poorly calibrated. Post-hoc calibration provides a simple and widely used solution, but the large number of proposed methods, combined with small-scale and inconsistent evaluations, makes it difficult to determine which approaches are truly effective in practice. We introduce a large-scale, standardized benchmark for post-hoc calibration, covering nearly 2000 experiments across tabular and computer vision tasks, including binary, multiclass, and large-scale classification settings. Our benchmark aggregates predictions from a diverse set of classical models, modern deep learning architectures, and foundation models, and provides unified, reproducible implementations of dozens of calibration methods within a common evaluation framework. We argue that Post-Hoc Improvement (PHI) in proper scoring rules offers a principled alternative to traditional calibration error estimators for comparing post-hoc methods, capturing both calibration quality and potential degradation to the model's predictive performance. Using this framework, we conduct the most comprehensive empirical study of post-hoc calibration to date. Our results reveal consistent patterns across domains: smooth calibration functions outperform binning-based approaches, dedicated multiclass methods are essential in high-dimensional settings, and generic machine learning models are not competitive without calibration-specific design. To facilitate future research, we release all data, code, and evaluation tools, providing a plug-and-play benchmark for developing and comparing calibration methods.


Principled Algorithms for Optimizing Generalized Metrics in Multi-Label Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many real-world classification tasks require predicting multiple labels per instance, necessitating the optimization of complex evaluation metrics such as the $F$-measure and Jaccard index. While the Empirical Utility Maximization (EUM) framework is natural for these population-level metrics, existing theoretical results are largely limited to asymptotic Bayes-consistency. In this paper, we develop principled learning algorithms for optimizing a broad class of generalized metrics within the EUM framework, grounded in the stronger notion of $H$-consistency. Our key contribution is the design of novel surrogate loss functions for multi-label learning that admit provable $H$-consistency bounds, enabling optimization with non-asymptotic guarantees tailored to the hypothesis class and finite samples. Crucially, we prove these combinatorially formulated surrogates decompose exactly, operating in strictly $O(l)$ time without approximations. Building on this foundation, we introduce MMO (Multi-Label Metric Optimization), a new family of algorithms for optimizing generalized linear-fractional metrics. We validate our approach through extensive experiments, demonstrating robust scalability and superior performance over state-of-the-art continuous baselines on large-scale datasets (MS-COCO, Reuters-21578) in high-sparsity, deep learning regimes. Our results offer both theoretical rigor and practical effectiveness for general multi-label metric optimization.


Real vs. Semi-Simulated: Rethinking Evaluation for Treatment Effect Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with machine learning has attracted substantial attention in both academic research and industrial practice. However, the two communities often evaluate models under markedly different conditions. Methodological work typically relies on semi-simulated benchmarks and metrics that require counterfactual outcomes, whereas real-world applications rely on observable metrics based on ranking or test outcomes. Despite the well-known gap between methodological progress and practical deployment, the relationship between these evaluation regimes has not been examined systematically. We conduct a large-scale empirical study of treatment effect evaluation across standard semi-simulated benchmark families and real-world datasets. Our benchmark covers meta-learners paired with multiple base learners, as well as specialized causal machine learning models. We evaluate these methods using observable metrics common in application-oriented literature, alongside counterfactual metrics commonly used in methods papers. Our results reveal two complementary gaps. First, counterfactual metrics do not reliably recover the estimators preferred by observable metrics, even on the same semi-simulated benchmarks. Second, rankings obtained on semi-simulated benchmarks do not transfer to real datasets. We further find that simple meta-learners with strong base models are consistently competitive, in contrast to specialized causal models. Overall, our findings suggest that progress in treatment effect estimation research should not be assessed solely through counterfactual metrics and semi-simulated benchmarks, but it would benefit from incorporating observable metrics and real-data validation.


SAFE Quantum Machine Learning with Variational Quantum Classifiers

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a variational quantum classifier operating on high dimensional deep representations via amplitude encoding, stabilized by a learnable classical pre encoding layer.By combining normalized amplitude embeddings with bounded quantum observables, the resulting model induces a structured and smooth hypothesis class with controlled sensitivity to input variations. Model reliability is assessed using SAFE-AI metrics derived from the Cramer von Mises divergence, enabling consistent evaluation across accuracy, robustness, and explainability dimensions. Empirical results show that the proposed quantum model provides competitive predictive performance compared with strong classical baselines while exhibiting a more balanced SAFE reliability profile, with improved robustness to noise and stability under structured feature removal. These findings suggest that variational quantum circuits offer a principled mechanism for stability oriented SAFE learning in safety critical settings.


Entropic Riemannian Neural Optimal Transport

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many machine learning problems involve data supported on curved spaces such as spheres, rotation groups, hyperbolic spaces, and general Riemannian manifolds, where Euclidean geometry can distort distances, averages, and the resulting optimal transport (OT) problem. Existing manifold OT methods have pursued amortized out-of-sample maps, while entropic regularization has made discrete OT more scalable, but these advantages have remained largely disjoint. We propose Entropic Riemannian Neural Optimal Transport (Entropic RNOT), a unified framework that combines intrinsic entropic OT with amortized out-of-sample evaluation on Riemannian manifolds. Our method learns a single target-side Schrödinger potential through a neural pullback parameterization, recovers the induced Gibbs coupling, and uses the resulting conditional laws to construct intrinsic transport surrogates. These include barycentric projections on Cartan-Hadamard manifolds and heat-smoothed conditional surrogates on stochastically complete manifolds, the latter turning possibly atomic target laws into absolutely continuous ones. For fixed regularization $\varepsilon>0$, we prove that the proposed hypothesis class recovers the entropic optimal coupling in strong probabilistic metrics. As consequences, barycentric surrogates converge in $L^2$, while heat-smoothed surrogates are stable at fixed heat time and asymptotically unbiased as the heat time vanishes. The guarantees hold for compactly supported data on possibly noncompact manifolds. Empirically, our method matches or improves over Euclidean, tangent-space, and log-Euclidean baselines on benchmarks over $\mathbb{S}^2$, $\mathrm{SO}(3)$, $\mathrm{SPD}(3)$, $\mathrm{SE}(3)$, and $\mathbb{H}^2$, scales favorably relative to discrete manifold Sinkhorn, and in a protein-ligand docking application, refines poses on $\mathrm{SE}(3)$ without retraining or per-instance optimization.



Appendix AVariational Paragraph Embedder A.1 Selection of substitution rate p

Neural Information Processing Systems

Figure 4: Impact of the proportion of injected noise for learning Paragraph Embeddings on XSum dataset. PPLint and the PPL of the generation obtained from training PLANNER on the corresponding z at different noise level. We observed when the value of p is within (0, 0.7), there Performing a grid search on each task using diffusion models is an expensive process. However, it has been observed that an increase in the value of p leads to a deviation between the two. This could be attributed to a higher conversion error that occurs when p is excessively large. A.2 Selection of number of latent code k The parameter k determines the number of latent codes used to represent a paragraph and therefore controls the compression level. Latent codes with smaller values of k are easier to model using the diffusion model, but may struggle to accurately preserve all the information in the original text. Additionally, smaller values of k offer computational efficiency as the sequence length for the diffusion model is k. To determine the best set of latent codes, we conducted experiments using three different methods: 1) selecting the first k hidden vectors, 2) selecting the last k hidden vectors, and 3) selecting interleaving hidden vectors, one for every L k hidden vectors. The results of the ablation study are presented in Table 5. Based on our findings, we observed no significant difference among the different choices, so we opted for option 1). Furthermore, we discovered that increasing the value of k does not lead to a dramatic improvement in performance. To balance between efficiency and performance, in most of our study we only use k =16 Setup BLEU_clean BLEU_robust First k (k=16) 79.59 43.17 A.3 Reconstruction, denoising and interpolation examples In Table 6, we present examples that demonstrate the adeptness of the trained Variational Paragraph Embedder in providing clean and denoised reconstructions. Additionally, we showcase interpolation results (Table 7, 8) derived from two random sentences in the hotel review dataset. The interpolated paragraph is usually coherent and incorporates inputs from both sentences, characterizing the distributional smoothness of the latent space. Reconstructed text complaints: after two nights stay, i asked the maid to clean our room (empty the wastebasket & make the bed). Denoising reconstruction (hotel review), noise level 0.3 Original text * * * check out the bathroom picture * * * i was in nyc by myself to watch some friends participate in the us olympic marathon trials. Corrupted text * * [unused697] check exams the bathroom picture * * slams i was in nyc mead myself yankee 2016 some scotch ruin in the outfielder olympicnca trials.



RaLEs: a Benchmark for Radiology Language Evaluations

Neural Information Processing Systems

The radiology report is the main form of communication between radiologists and other clinicians. Prior work in natural language processing in radiology reports has shown the value of developing methods tailored for individual tasks such as identifying reports with critical results or disease detection. Meanwhile, English and biomedical natural language understanding benchmarks such as the General Language Understanding and Evaluation as well as Biomedical Language Understanding and Reasoning Benchmark have motivated the development of models that can be easily adapted to address many tasks in those domains. Here, we characterize the radiology report as a distinct domain and introduce RaLEs, the Radiology Language Evaluations, as a benchmark for natural language understanding and generation in radiology. RaLEs is comprised of six natural language understanding and generation evaluations including the extraction of anatomical and disease entities and their relations, procedure selection, and report summarization. We characterize the performance of models designed for the general, biomedical, clinical and radiology domains across these tasks. We find that advances in the general and biomedical domains do not necessarily translate to radiology, and that certain more advanced models from the general domain can perform comparably to smaller clinical-specific models. The limited performance of existing pre-trained models on RaLEs highlights the opportunity to improve domain-specific self-supervised models for natural language processing in radiology. We propose RaLEs as a benchmark to promote and track the development of such domain-specific radiology language models.