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MetMamba: Regional Weather Forecasting with Spatial-Temporal Mamba Model

Qin, Haoyu, Chen, Yungang, Jiang, Qianchuan, Sun, Pengchao, Ye, Xiancai, Lin, Chao

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Weather forecasting has attracted increasing attention as climate change brought more heat waves, tropical cyclones, heavy rainfalls and other extreme weather events, affecting millions of people worldwide [1] [2]. Researchers have devised sophisticated numerical schemes and equations to capture complex weather dynamics to improve forecast accuracy[3]. However, its immense computational complexity often necessitates the use of large scale compute clusters, incurring notable energy cost and long processing time, making ensemble forecasts, critical for predicting such events[4], expensive or infeasible. Trained on European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF)'s reanalysis product ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) dataset, deep learning based weather prediction (DLWP) models have shown promising performance, with FourCastNet[5] being the first data-driven model that directly competes with ECMWF's Integrate Forecasting System (IFS), followed by a series of other models[6][7][8][9] that outperforms IFS in various metrics [10], these models demonstrates excellent ability in capturing global weather trends, with a fraction of the computation requirement.